Uruguayan Primera División· Kick-off : Saturday, October 24, 2026, 00:00 (UK time)
Juventud vs Penarol: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Juventud 0-0 Penarol. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Penarol (48%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
Match analysis
Juventud and Penarol met on Saturday, October 24, 2026, a Uruguayan Primera División fixture. Venue: Parque Artigas, Las Piedras. Before kick-off, our model gave Juventud a 24% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Penarol 48%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (14.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.8%) and 0-0 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Juventud have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 3 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Penarol have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Juventud score 0.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Penarol score 1.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Juventud sit 7th with 17 points from 11 games, Penarol 4th with 20 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventud, 2 for Penarol and 3 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 2-2 Juventud (Apr 21, 2026). In double chance terms, "Juventud or draw" stands at 52%, "Penarol or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Penarol are favourites for this Juventud v Penarol, with a 48% win probability from our model. In the table, Juventud (7th, 17 pts) host Penarol (4th, 20 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Juventud – Penarol. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Juventud 0-1 Penarol | 14.8% |
| Juventud 1-1 Penarol | 12.8% |
| Juventud 0-0 Penarol | 11.1% |
| Juventud 0-2 Penarol | 9.9% |
| Juventud 1-0 Penarol | 9.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.86 expected goals for Juventud and 1.34 for Penarol, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 38% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Juventud keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Penarol in 42%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Juventud expected goals | 0.86 |
| Penarol expected goals | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Juventud clean sheet | 26% |
| Penarol clean sheet | 42% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Juventud
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Plaza Colonia · Copa Uruguay | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cerro · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-0 | D |
Penarol
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Progreso · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Racing Montevideo · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Atletico Torque · Uruguayan Primera División | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Boston River · Uruguayan Primera División | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 7 | 17 | 11 |
| Penarol | 4 | 20 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Penarol 2-2 Juventud | Primera División |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Penarol 1-0 Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Juventud 0-2 Penarol | Primera División - Apertura |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Juventud 1-1 Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| Aug 18, 2019 | Penarol 0-0 Juventud | Primera División - Clausura |
Out and doubtful
Juventud
No absences reported.
Penarol
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Juventud
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Barrandeguy4/4
- R. Peralta4/4
- B. Larregui3/4
- D. Morosini3/4
- K. Rolon3/4
- L. Roldan3/4
- P. Pernicone3/4
- R. Chagas3/4
- S. Sosa3/4
- A. Alaniz2/4
- A. Cruz2/4
Penarol
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Jaime5/5
- E. Remedi5/5
- J. Cabrera5/5
- M. Arezo5/5
- W. Aguerre5/5
- G. Pezzella4/5
- L. Ferreira4/5
- L. Umpierrez4/5
- N. Herrera4/5
- N. Fernandez3/5
- T. N. Espinosa Dovat3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Club Nacional 3-2 Deportivo MaldonadoOct 20, 2026
- Central Espanol 1-3 Albion FCOct 24, 2026
- Defensor Sporting 3-3 Racing MontevideoOct 24, 2026
- Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 DanubioOct 24, 2026
- Wanderers 0-1 ProgresoOct 25, 2026
- Atletico Torque 3-1 CerroOct 25, 2026
- Cerro Largo 2-0 Boston RiverOct 25, 2026
- Club Nacional 0-1 Liverpool MontevideoOct 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Juventud vs Penarol prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Juventud a 24% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Penarol 48%. Penarol are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Juventud vs Penarol?
0-1 (14.8%), followed by 1-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.1%), 0-2 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.5%).
Will both teams score in Juventud vs Penarol?
The probability that both Juventud and Penarol score is 43%. Juventud have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Penarol 42%.
How many goals should we expect in Juventud vs Penarol?
The model expects 2.20 goals (0.86 for Juventud, 1.34 for Penarol). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 18%.
When and where is Juventud vs Penarol played?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 00:00 (UK time), Uruguayan Primera División. Venue: Parque Artigas, Las Piedras.
What form are Juventud and Penarol in?
Juventud: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 2 conceded). Penarol: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Juventud and Penarol?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Juventud, 2 for Penarol and 3 draws. The most recent ended Penarol 2-2 Juventud (Apr 21, 2026).
What was the Juventud vs Penarol result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Juventud 0-0 Penarol. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Penarol (48%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
How is the Juventud vs Penarol prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.86 for Juventud, 1.34 for Penarol) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Juventud predictions
- All Penarol predictions
- Uruguayan Primera División predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology