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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Lyon vs Fenerbahçe: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

LyonLyon1 – 2FenerbahçeFenerbahçe

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lyon (43%), while victory for Fenerbahçe was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (3.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (19%): missed.

Match analysis

Lyon vs Fenerbahçe was played on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Groupama Stadium, Lyon. Before kick-off, our model gave Lyon a 43% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Fenerbahçe 21%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (22.8%), ahead of 1-0 (21.2%) and 0-1 (12.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Fenerbahçe have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Fenerbahçe. On average Lyon score 1.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Fenerbahçe score 1.80 and concede 1.00. Over their recent games, Lyon have averaged 0.70 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.63 for Fenerbahçe.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lyon, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon (Aug 18, 2026). Lyon out or doubtful: Abner Vinicius, R. Kluivert, A. Maitland-Niles, K. Merah and M. Niakhate. Fenerbahçe: K. Akturkoglu, M. Asensio, Diego Carlos, A. Diouf and M. Gunok. In double chance terms, "Lyon or draw" stands at 79%, "Fenerbahçe or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 64%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

43%
Lyon (Win)
36%
Draw
21%
Fenerbahçe (Win)

Double chance

79%
Lyon or draw
57%
Fenerbahçe or draw
64%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Lyon – Fenerbahçe. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (22.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 78% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Lyon 0-0 Fenerbahçe22.8%
Lyon 1-0 Fenerbahçe21.2%
Lyon 0-1 Fenerbahçe12.5%
Lyon 1-1 Fenerbahçe11.6%
Lyon 2-0 Fenerbahçe9.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.48 goals in total (0.93 for Lyon, 0.55 for Fenerbahçe): over 2.5 goals has a 19% probability and both teams to score 26%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Lyon keep a clean sheet in 58% of scenarios, Fenerbahçe in 40%.

Probability
Lyon expected goals0.93
Fenerbahçe expected goals0.55
Both teams to score26%
Over 1.5 goals44%
Over 2.5 goals19%
Over 3.5 goals6%
Lyon clean sheet58%
Fenerbahçe clean sheet40%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Lyon

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Toulouse · Ligue 12-0W
Aug 18, 2026Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Aug 11, 2026Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League3-0W
Aug 4, 2026Sparta Praha · UEFA Champions League1-2L
Jul 29, 2026Real Betis · Club Friendlies0-4L

Fenerbahçe

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Konyaspor · Süper Lig4-2W
Aug 18, 2026Lyon · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Aug 15, 2026Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Süper Lig1-2L
Aug 11, 2026Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League1-0W
Aug 5, 2026Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League2-0W

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 18, 2026Fenerbahçe 1-1 LyonUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Lyon

  • Abner Vinicius (out)
  • R. Kluivert (out)
  • A. Maitland-Niles (out)
  • K. Merah (out)
  • M. Niakhate (out)

Fenerbahçe

  • K. Akturkoglu (out)
  • M. Asensio (out)
  • Diego Carlos (out)
  • A. Diouf (out)
  • M. Gunok (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Lyon vs Fenerbahçe prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Lyon a 43% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Fenerbahçe 21%. Lyon are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?

0-0 (22.8%), followed by 1-0 (21.2%), 0-1 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.6%) and 2-0 (9.8%).

Will both teams score in Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?

The probability that both Lyon and Fenerbahçe score is 26%. Lyon have a 58% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fenerbahçe 40%.

How many goals should we expect in Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?

The model expects 1.48 goals (0.93 for Lyon, 0.55 for Fenerbahçe). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 44%, over 2.5 goals 19%, over 3.5 goals 6%.

When and where is Lyon vs Fenerbahçe played?

Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Groupama Stadium, Lyon.

What form are Lyon and Fenerbahçe in?

Lyon: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded). Fenerbahçe: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Fenerbahçe?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lyon, 0 for Fenerbahçe and 1 draw. The most recent ended Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon (Aug 18, 2026).

What was the Lyon vs Fenerbahçe result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Lyon 1-2 Fenerbahçe. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lyon (43%), while victory for Fenerbahçe was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (3.2%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (26%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (19%): missed.

How is the Lyon vs Fenerbahçe prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.93 for Lyon, 0.55 for Fenerbahçe) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained