Championship· Kick-off : Friday, October 16, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Burnley vs Wolves: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Burnley 1-2 Wolves. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Wolves was the model's favourite outcome (52%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.
Match analysis
Burnley vs Wolves was played on Friday, October 16, 2026 (Championship, matchday 11). Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley. Before kick-off, our model gave Burnley a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wolves 52%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.6%), ahead of 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-1 (8.8%).
Burnley have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Wolves have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Burnley score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Wolves score 0.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Burnley sit 21st with 8 points from 10 games, Wolves 10th with 14 points from 9. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Burnley have averaged 1.51 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.46 for Wolves.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Burnley, 2 for Wolves and 2 draws. The most recent ended Burnley 1-1 Wolves (May 24, 2026). Burnley out or doubtful: E. Agyei, Z. Amdouni (doubtful), J. Banel (doubtful), A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Cullen (doubtful), B. Humphreys and H. Mejbri. In double chance terms, "Burnley or draw" stands at 48%, "Wolves or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Wolves are tipped by our AI model in this Burnley v Wolves (52%). In the table, Burnley (21st, 8 pts) host Wolves (10th, 14 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Burnley – Wolves. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley 1-1 Wolves | 10.6% |
| Burnley 1-2 Wolves | 9.7% |
| Burnley 0-1 Wolves | 8.8% |
| Burnley 0-2 Wolves | 8.0% |
| Burnley 2-1 Wolves | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.03 goals in total (1.21 for Burnley, 1.82 for Wolves): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 59%. Everything points to an open game. Burnley keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Wolves in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Burnley expected goals | 1.21 |
| Wolves expected goals | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 16% |
| Wolves clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Burnley
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Wrexham · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Wolves
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Bolton · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Everton · EFL Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 21 | 8 | 10 |
| Wolves | 10 | 14 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Burnley 1-1 Wolves | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Wolves 2-3 Burnley | Premier League |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Wolves 2-0 Burnley | EFL Cup |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Burnley 1-1 Wolves | Premier League |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Wolves 1-0 Burnley | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Burnley
- E. Agyei (out)
- Z. Amdouni (doubtful)
- J. Banel (doubtful)
- A. Barnes (out)
- J. Beyer (out)
- J. Cullen (doubtful)
- B. Humphreys (out)
- H. Mejbri (out)
Wolves
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Burnley
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Igor5/5
- J. Laurent5/5
- M. Alleyne5/5
- K. Walker4/5
- L. Ramazani4/5
- Z. Amdouni4/5
- A. Ahmedhodzic3/5
- C. Roberts3/5
- G. Coudert3/5
- J. Bruun Larsen3/5
- Lucas Pires3/5
Wolves
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Armstrong4/5
- Andre4/5
- H. Bueno4/5
- J. Sa4/5
- M. Mane4/5
- N. Djiga4/5
- F. Lopez3/5
- K. Trippier3/5
- M. Munetsi3/5
- R. Gomes3/5
- J. James2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Middlesbrough 2-2 CardiffOct 17, 2026
- Millwall 2-2 LincolnOct 17, 2026
- Watford 2-0 CharltonOct 17, 2026
- Norwich 0-1 PortsmouthOct 17, 2026
- Wrexham 4-1 PrestonOct 17, 2026
- Derby 0-1 Stoke CityOct 17, 2026
- Bristol City 0-1 Sheffield UtdOct 17, 2026
- Birmingham 3-0 QPROct 17, 2026
- Southampton 0-0 BoltonOct 17, 2026
- West Brom 3-2 BlackburnOct 17, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Burnley vs Wolves prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Burnley a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wolves 52%. Wolves are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Burnley vs Wolves?
1-1 (10.6%), followed by 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.8%), 0-2 (8.0%) and 2-1 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolves?
The probability that both Burnley and Wolves score is 59%. Burnley have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wolves 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Burnley vs Wolves?
The model expects 3.03 goals (1.21 for Burnley, 1.82 for Wolves). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Burnley vs Wolves played?
Friday, October 16, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 11. Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley.
What form are Burnley and Wolves in?
Burnley: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Wolves: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Burnley, 2 for Wolves and 2 draws. The most recent ended Burnley 1-1 Wolves (May 24, 2026).
What was the Burnley vs Wolves result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Burnley 1-2 Wolves. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Wolves was the model's favourite outcome (52%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (59%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.
How is the Burnley vs Wolves prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.21 for Burnley, 1.82 for Wolves) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Burnley predictions
- All Wolves predictions
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- Today’s predictions
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