La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, November 1, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Athletic Club 2-1 Real Sociedad. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Real Sociedad (61%), while victory for Athletic Club was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.
Match analysis
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad was played on Sunday, November 1, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 11). Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Before kick-off, our model gave Athletic Club a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Sociedad 61%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (10.1%), ahead of 1-2 (10.0%) and 0-1 (9.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Athletic Club have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 4. Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 17 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Real Sociedad. On average Athletic Club score 2.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Real Sociedad score 3.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Athletic Club sit 7th with 12 points from 9 games, Real Sociedad 5th with 19 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Athletic Club have averaged 1.09 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.86 for Real Sociedad.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 3 for Real Sociedad and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Sociedad 0-1 Athletic Club (Oct 2, 2026). Athletic Club out or doubtful: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta and I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola and A. Zakharyan. In double chance terms, "Athletic Club or draw" stands at 39%, "Real Sociedad or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Real Sociedad are favourites for this Athletic Club v Real Sociedad, with a 61% win probability from our model. In the table, Athletic Club (7th, 12 pts) host Real Sociedad (5th, 19 pts). One to watch: Athletic Club will be without U. Egiluz and G. Guruzeta.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Athletic Club – Real Sociedad. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Athletic Club 0-2 Real Sociedad | 10.1% |
| Athletic Club 1-2 Real Sociedad | 10.0% |
| Athletic Club 0-1 Real Sociedad | 9.9% |
| Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad | 9.8% |
| Athletic Club 0-3 Real Sociedad | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.03 goals in total (0.99 for Athletic Club, 2.04 for Real Sociedad): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 55%. Everything points to an open game. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Real Sociedad in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Athletic Club expected goals | 0.99 |
| Real Sociedad expected goals | 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 13% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Athletic Club
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Prat · Copa del Rey | 6-1 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Real Sociedad · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Real Sociedad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lillestrom · UEFA Europa League | 6-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 5-2 | W |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise · UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| Real Sociedad | 5 | 19 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Athletic Club | Club Friendlies |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad 1-0 Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Athletic Club
- U. Egiluz (out)
- G. Guruzeta (out)
- I. Ruiz de Galarreta (out)
Real Sociedad
- L. Beitia (out)
- A. Odriozola (out)
- A. Zakharyan (out)
Most regular starters
Athletic Club
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Berenguer4/5
- H. Rincon4/5
- A. Paredes3/5
- I. Ruiz de Galarreta3/5
- J. Louis-Jean3/5
- M. Sannadi3/5
- P. Canales3/5
- R. Navarro3/5
- U. Simon3/5
- A. Laporte2/5
- I. Williams2/5
Real Sociedad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Sarr5/5
- Gonçalo Guedes3/5
- Jon Gorrotxategi3/5
- Jon Martín3/5
- L. Sučić3/5
- Mikel Oyarzabal3/5
- Sergio Gómez3/5
- A. Barrenetxea2/5
- A. Remiro2/5
- C. Soler2/5
- J. Martin2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Villarreal 0-1 EspanyolOct 30, 2026
- Levante 0-2 Atletico MadridOct 31, 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Celta VigoOct 31, 2026
- Real Betis 2-1 MalagaOct 31, 2026
- Barcelona 6-1 AlavesOct 31, 2026
- Getafe 3-1 SevillaNov 1, 2026
- Racing Santander 0-3 Real MadridNov 1, 2026
- Elche 0-1 ValenciaNov 1, 2026
- Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 OsasunaNov 2, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Athletic Club a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Sociedad 61%. Real Sociedad are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
0-2 (10.1%), followed by 1-2 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.8%) and 0-3 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
The probability that both Athletic Club and Real Sociedad score is 55%. Athletic Club have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Sociedad 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
The model expects 3.03 goals (0.99 for Athletic Club, 2.04 for Real Sociedad). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad played?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 11. Venue: San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao.
What form are Athletic Club and Real Sociedad in?
Athletic Club: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 4 conceded). Real Sociedad: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Athletic Club, 3 for Real Sociedad and 1 draw. The most recent ended Real Sociedad 0-1 Athletic Club (Oct 2, 2026).
What was the Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Athletic Club 2-1 Real Sociedad. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Real Sociedad (61%), while victory for Athletic Club was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.8%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (58%): correct.
How is the Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.99 for Athletic Club, 2.04 for Real Sociedad) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Athletic Club predictions
- All Real Sociedad predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology