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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:00 (UK time)

Racing Santander vs Villarreal: 2-2 result and AI prediction review

Racing SantanderRacing Santander2 – 2VillarrealVillarreal

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Racing Santander (47%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Racing Santander and Villarreal met on Sunday, August 16, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio El Sardinero, Santander. Before kick-off, our model gave Racing Santander a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Villarreal 27%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.3%).

Racing Santander have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Villarreal therefore arrive in far better shape than Racing Santander. On average Racing Santander score 1.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Villarreal score 2.20 and concede 1.00.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Racing Santander, 0 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Racing Santander 2-1 Villarreal (Dec 17, 2025). Racing Santander out or doubtful: G. Guliashvili. In double chance terms, "Racing Santander or draw" stands at 73%, "Villarreal or draw" at 53% and "no draw" at 74%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

47%
Racing Santander (Win)
26%
Draw
27%
Villarreal (Win)

Double chance

73%
Racing Santander or draw
53%
Villarreal or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Racing Santander – Villarreal. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Racing Santander 1-1 Villarreal12.1%
Racing Santander 1-0 Villarreal11.1%
Racing Santander 2-1 Villarreal9.3%
Racing Santander 2-0 Villarreal8.5%
Racing Santander 0-1 Villarreal7.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.53 expected goals for Racing Santander and 1.09 for Villarreal, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Racing Santander keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Villarreal in 22%.

Probability
Racing Santander expected goals1.53
Villarreal expected goals1.09
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Racing Santander clean sheet34%
Villarreal clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Racing Santander

DateOpponentScore
Aug 7, 2026Alaves · Club Friendlies1-1D
Aug 7, 2026Sporting Gijon · Club Friendlies4-1W
Aug 1, 2026Wolves · Club Friendlies0-3L
Jul 29, 2026Athletic Club · Club Friendlies0-3L
Jul 24, 2026Osasuna · Club Friendlies0-2L

Villarreal

DateOpponentScore
Aug 8, 2026Galatasaray · Club Friendlies2-1W
Aug 5, 2026Levante · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jul 25, 2026PSV Eindhoven · Club Friendlies3-1W
Jul 17, 2026Benfica · Club Friendlies0-2L
May 24, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga5-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Racing Santander1800
Villarreal300

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Dec 17, 2025Racing Santander 2-1 VillarrealCopa del Rey

Out and doubtful

Racing Santander

  • G. Guliashvili (out)

Villarreal

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Racing Santander vs Villarreal prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Racing Santander a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Villarreal 27%. Racing Santander are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Racing Santander vs Villarreal?

1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.5%) and 0-1 (7.9%).

Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Villarreal?

The probability that both Racing Santander and Villarreal score is 52%. Racing Santander have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Villarreal 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Racing Santander vs Villarreal?

The model expects 2.62 goals (1.53 for Racing Santander, 1.09 for Villarreal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Racing Santander vs Villarreal played?

Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 16:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 1. Venue: Estadio El Sardinero, Santander.

What form are Racing Santander and Villarreal in?

Racing Santander: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded). Villarreal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Racing Santander and Villarreal?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Racing Santander, 0 for Villarreal and 0 draws. The most recent ended Racing Santander 2-1 Villarreal (Dec 17, 2025).

What was the Racing Santander vs Villarreal result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Racing Santander (47%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Racing Santander vs Villarreal prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for Racing Santander, 1.09 for Villarreal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained