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La LigaLa Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

SevillaSevilla2 – 1Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sevilla was the model's favourite outcome (70%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (29%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.

Match analysis

Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano was played on Saturday, August 15, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 1). Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla. Before kick-off, our model gave Sevilla a 70% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rayo Vallecano 8%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (19.9%), ahead of 2-0 (17.3%) and 0-0 (11.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Sevilla have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Rayo Vallecano have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Sevilla. On average Sevilla score 1.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Rayo Vallecano score 1.00 and concede 2.00.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sevilla, 0 for Rayo Vallecano and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (Mar 8, 2026). Sevilla out or doubtful: Marcao and A. Gonzalez. Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe, D. Mendez and M. Kumbulla. In double chance terms, "Sevilla or draw" stands at 92%, "Rayo Vallecano or draw" at 30% and "no draw" at 78%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

70%
Sevilla (Win)
22%
Draw
8%
Rayo Vallecano (Win)

Double chance

92%
Sevilla or draw
30%
Rayo Vallecano or draw
78%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Sevilla 1-0 Rayo Vallecano19.9%
Sevilla 2-0 Rayo Vallecano17.3%
Sevilla 0-0 Rayo Vallecano11.4%
Sevilla 3-0 Rayo Vallecano10.0%
Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano8.5%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.17 goals in total (1.74 for Sevilla, 0.43 for Rayo Vallecano): over 2.5 goals has a 37% probability and both teams to score 29%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 65% of scenarios, Rayo Vallecano in 18%.

Probability
Sevilla expected goals1.74
Rayo Vallecano expected goals0.43
Both teams to score29%
Over 1.5 goals64%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Over 3.5 goals18%
Sevilla clean sheet65%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Sevilla

DateOpponentScore
Aug 8, 2026Bayer Leverkusen · Club Friendlies1-2L
Aug 2, 2026Utrecht · Club Friendlies1-0W
Jul 31, 2026NEC Nijmegen · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jul 26, 2026AD Ceuta FC · Club Friendlies2-1W
Jul 23, 2026Cordoba · Club Friendlies0-0D

Rayo Vallecano

DateOpponentScore
Aug 8, 2026Ipswich · Club Friendlies0-3L
Aug 1, 2026Charleroi · Club Friendlies3-2W
Jul 26, 2026Feyenoord · Club Friendlies1-2L
Jul 17, 2026Heart Of Midlothian · Club Friendlies1-2L
May 27, 2026Crystal Palace · UEFA Conference League0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Sevilla1300
Rayo Vallecano800

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 8, 2026Sevilla 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Sep 28, 2025Rayo Vallecano 0-1 SevillaLa Liga

Out and doubtful

Sevilla

  • Marcao (out)
  • A. Gonzalez (out)

Rayo Vallecano

  • Luiz Felipe (out)
  • D. Mendez (out)
  • M. Kumbulla (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Sevilla a 70% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rayo Vallecano 8%. Sevilla are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

1-0 (19.9%), followed by 2-0 (17.3%), 0-0 (11.4%), 3-0 (10.0%) and 1-1 (8.5%).

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

The probability that both Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano score is 29%. Sevilla have a 65% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Rayo Vallecano 18%.

How many goals should we expect in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model expects 2.17 goals (1.74 for Sevilla, 0.43 for Rayo Vallecano). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 18%.

When and where is Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano played?

Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 1. Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla.

What form are Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano in?

Sevilla: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). Rayo Vallecano: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Sevilla, 0 for Rayo Vallecano and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sevilla 1-1 Rayo Vallecano (Mar 8, 2026).

What was the Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Sevilla 2-1 Rayo Vallecano. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sevilla was the model's favourite outcome (70%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (29%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.

How is the Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.74 for Sevilla, 0.43 for Rayo Vallecano) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained