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Peruvian Liga 1Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Friday, October 30, 2026, 00:30 (UK time)

FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

FBC MelgarFBC Melgar1 – 1Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 3-1

Final score: FBC Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FBC Melgar (82%), while a draw was rated at only 10%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (88%): missed.

Match analysis

FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos met on Friday, October 30, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Monumental de la UNSA, Arequipa. Before kick-off, our model gave FBC Melgar a 82% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Comerciantes Unidos 8%. On the correct score, 3-1 comes out on top (7.3%), followed by 4-1 (6.9%) and 2-1 (5.7%).

FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 6. Comerciantes Unidos have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. FBC Melgar therefore arrive in far better shape than Comerciantes Unidos. On average FBC Melgar score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Comerciantes Unidos score 1.40 and concede 1.80. In the table, FBC Melgar sit 5th with 25 points from 13 games, Comerciantes Unidos 13th with 13 points from 13. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, FBC Melgar have averaged 2.29 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.14 for Comerciantes Unidos.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FBC Melgar, 0 for Comerciantes Unidos and 1 draw. The most recent ended Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 FBC Melgar (May 10, 2026). In double chance terms, "FBC Melgar or draw" stands at 92%, "Comerciantes Unidos or draw" at 18% and "no draw" at 90%.

In short : FBC Melgar are favourites for this FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos, with a 82% win probability from our model. In the table, FBC Melgar (5th, 25 pts) host Comerciantes Unidos (13th, 13 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

82%
FBC Melgar (Win)
10%
Draw
8%
Comerciantes Unidos (Win)

Double chance

92%
FBC Melgar or draw
18%
Comerciantes Unidos or draw
90%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as FBC Melgar – Comerciantes Unidos. 3-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 31% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
FBC Melgar 3-1 Comerciantes Unidos7.3%
FBC Melgar 4-1 Comerciantes Unidos6.9%
FBC Melgar 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos5.7%
FBC Melgar 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos5.7%
FBC Melgar 4-0 Comerciantes Unidos5.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 3.82 expected goals for FBC Melgar and 1.28 for Comerciantes Unidos, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 88% and "both teams to score" at 71%. Goals look likely in this one. FBC Melgar keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Comerciantes Unidos in 2%.

Probability
FBC Melgar expected goals3.82
Comerciantes Unidos expected goals1.28
Both teams to score71%
Over 1.5 goals96%
Over 2.5 goals88%
Over 3.5 goals75%
FBC Melgar clean sheet28%
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet2%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

FBC Melgar

DateOpponentScore
Oct 23, 2026UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 12-1W
Oct 18, 2026Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 14-2W
Oct 11, 2026Universitario · Peruvian Liga 12-2D
Sep 20, 2026Sport Boys · Peruvian Liga 11-1D
Sep 12, 2026Cusco · Peruvian Liga 11-0W

Comerciantes Unidos

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026Cienciano · Peruvian Liga 13-1W
Oct 18, 2026Sporting Cristal · Peruvian Liga 12-4L
Oct 10, 2026Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 11-1D
Sep 18, 2026Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 11-2L
Sep 12, 2026Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 10-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
FBC Melgar52513
Comerciantes Unidos131313

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 10, 2026Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 FBC MelgarPeruvian Liga 1

Out and doubtful

FBC Melgar

No absences reported.

Comerciantes Unidos

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

FBC Melgar

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Cuesta5/5
  • C. Bordacahar5/5
  • J. Cabezudo5/5
  • J. Escobar5/5
  • L. Gonzalez5/5
  • M. Lazo5/5
  • N. Cabanillas5/5
  • J. Vidales4/5
  • K. Minda4/5
  • N. Quagliata4/5
  • W. Tandazo3/5

Comerciantes Unidos

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Parodi5/5
  • J. Rodriguez5/5
  • Jhon Sanchez5/5
  • M. Sen5/5
  • A. Arias4/5
  • M. Cordova4/5
  • D. Lino3/5
  • F. Alcedo3/5
  • J. Olivares3/5
  • R. Vilca3/5
  • Y. Gamero3/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave FBC Melgar a 82% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Comerciantes Unidos 8%. FBC Melgar are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

3-1 (7.3%), followed by 4-1 (6.9%), 2-1 (5.7%), 3-0 (5.7%) and 4-0 (5.4%).

Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The probability that both FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos score is 71%. FBC Melgar have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Comerciantes Unidos 2%.

How many goals should we expect in FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model expects 5.10 goals (3.82 for FBC Melgar, 1.28 for Comerciantes Unidos). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 88%, over 3.5 goals 75%.

When and where is FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos played?

Friday, October 30, 2026 at 00:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Monumental de la UNSA, Arequipa.

What form are FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos in?

FBC Melgar: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Comerciantes Unidos: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for FBC Melgar, 0 for Comerciantes Unidos and 1 draw. The most recent ended Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 FBC Melgar (May 10, 2026).

What was the FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: FBC Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for FBC Melgar (82%), while a draw was rated at only 10%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (71%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (88%): missed.

How is the FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.82 for FBC Melgar, 1.28 for Comerciantes Unidos) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained