Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Thursday, October 29, 2026, 20:30 (UK time)
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Sporting Cristal 3-2 Alianza Lima. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sporting Cristal was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
Match analysis
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima was played on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima. Before kick-off, our model gave Sporting Cristal a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alianza Lima 31%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.6%) and 0-1 (9.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Sporting Cristal have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Lima have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Sporting Cristal score 2.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Alianza Lima score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Sporting Cristal sit 3rd with 25 points from 13 games, Alianza Lima 7th with 25 points from 13. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Sporting Cristal have averaged 1.20 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.24 for Alianza Lima.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sporting Cristal, 0 for Alianza Lima and 1 draw. The most recent ended Alianza Lima 1-1 Sporting Cristal (May 10, 2026). In double chance terms, "Sporting Cristal or draw" stands at 69%, "Alianza Lima or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Sporting Cristal are tipped by our AI model in this Sporting Cristal v Alianza Lima (42%). On recent form, Sporting Cristal are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Alianza Lima are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Sporting Cristal – Alianza Lima. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal 1-1 Alianza Lima | 12.8% |
| Sporting Cristal 1-0 Alianza Lima | 11.6% |
| Sporting Cristal 0-1 Alianza Lima | 9.6% |
| Sporting Cristal 0-0 Alianza Lima | 8.6% |
| Sporting Cristal 2-1 Alianza Lima | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.45 goals in total (1.34 for Sporting Cristal, 1.11 for Alianza Lima): over 2.5 goals has a 44% probability and both teams to score 50%. Sporting Cristal keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, Alianza Lima in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal expected goals | 1.34 |
| Alianza Lima expected goals | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Sporting Cristal clean sheet | 33% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Sporting Cristal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cusco · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 1-0 | W |
Alianza Lima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Cusco · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Palestino · Club Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | ADT · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 3 | 25 | 13 |
| Alianza Lima | 7 | 25 | 13 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alianza Lima 1-1 Sporting Cristal | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Sporting Cristal
No absences reported.
Alianza Lima
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Sporting Cristal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Castro5/5
- R. Lutiger5/5
- D. Enriquez4/5
- L. Iberico4/5
- L. Sosa4/5
- M. Hoyos4/5
- A. Alvarez Wallace3/5
- Cristiano3/5
- M. Araujo3/5
- S. Gonzalez3/5
- Y. Yotun3/5
Alianza Lima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Duarte5/5
- E. Castillo4/5
- F. Gaibor4/5
- G. Chavez4/5
- J. Velez4/5
- K. Quevedo4/5
- L. Advincula4/5
- M. Huaman4/5
- R. Garces4/5
- F. Girotti3/5
- E. Pavez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Juan Pablo II College 2-0 Sport HuancayoOct 27, 2026
- ADT 2-0 UCV MoqueguaOct 28, 2026
- FC Cajamarca 1-3 UTC CajamarcaOct 28, 2026
- Alianza Atletico 3-2 Deportivo GarcilasoOct 28, 2026
- Cienciano 3-0 Atletico GrauOct 29, 2026
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-1 CuscoOct 29, 2026
- FBC Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes UnidosOct 30, 2026
- Alianza Atletico 1-0 Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 31, 2026
- UCV Moquegua 0-0 Club Deportivo Los ChankasNov 1, 2026
- Cusco 0-1 Sport BoysNov 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Sporting Cristal a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alianza Lima 31%. Sporting Cristal are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
1-1 (12.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (8.6%) and 2-1 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
The probability that both Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima score is 50%. Sporting Cristal have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alianza Lima 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
The model expects 2.45 goals (1.34 for Sporting Cristal, 1.11 for Alianza Lima). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima played?
Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 20:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima.
What form are Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima in?
Sporting Cristal: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded). Alianza Lima: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Sporting Cristal, 0 for Alianza Lima and 1 draw. The most recent ended Alianza Lima 1-1 Sporting Cristal (May 10, 2026).
What was the Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Sporting Cristal 3-2 Alianza Lima. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sporting Cristal was the model's favourite outcome (42%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
How is the Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.34 for Sporting Cristal, 1.11 for Alianza Lima) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Sporting Cristal predictions
- All Alianza Lima predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology