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Ivorian Ligue 1Ivorian Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)

Bouaké vs AFAD: 2-1 result and AI prediction review

BouakéBouaké2 – 1AFADAFAD

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Bouaké 2-1 AFAD. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Bouaké was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

Match analysis

Bouaké vs AFAD was played on Sunday, September 27, 2026 (Ivorian Ligue 1, matchday 1). Before kick-off, our model gave Bouaké a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AFAD 26%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.0%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Bouaké have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 4. AFAD are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with AFAD. On average Bouaké score 0.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; AFAD score 3.20 and concede 1.00.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bouaké, 2 for AFAD and 1 draw. The most recent ended AFAD 1-2 Bouaké (Apr 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Bouaké or draw" stands at 74%, "AFAD or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Bouaké are favourites for this Bouaké v AFAD, with a 49% win probability from our model. On recent form, Bouaké have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while AFAD have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

49%
Bouaké (Win)
25%
Draw
26%
AFAD (Win)

Double chance

74%
Bouaké or draw
51%
AFAD or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bouaké – AFAD. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bouaké 1-1 AFAD12.0%
Bouaké 1-0 AFAD11.2%
Bouaké 2-1 AFAD9.4%
Bouaké 2-0 AFAD8.8%
Bouaké 0-1 AFAD7.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.63 goals in total (1.56 for Bouaké, 1.07 for AFAD): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Bouaké keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, AFAD in 21%.

Probability
Bouaké expected goals1.56
AFAD expected goals1.07
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Bouaké clean sheet34%
AFAD clean sheet21%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Bouaké

DateOpponentScore
May 24, 2026SOA · Ivorian Ligue 10-0D
May 16, 2026Stella · Ivorian Ligue 11-2L
May 10, 2026US Tchologo · Ivorian Ligue 11-2L
May 2, 2026SOL · Ivorian Ligue 11-0W
Apr 26, 2026ASEC Mimosas · Ivorian Ligue 11-0W

AFAD

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026East End Lions · CAF Confederation Cup2-2D
Sep 6, 2026East End Lions · CAF Confederation Cup1-1D
May 24, 2026SOL · Ivorian Ligue 12-0W
May 17, 2026Olympique Sport d'Abobo · Ivorian Ligue 18-0W
May 10, 2026SOA · Ivorian Ligue 13-2W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bouaké800
AFAD600

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 19, 2026AFAD 1-2 BouakéLigue 1
Nov 9, 2025Bouaké 1-0 AFADLigue 1
Mar 7, 2025AFAD 3-2 BouakéLigue 1
Nov 2, 2024Bouaké 0-0 AFADLigue 1
Mar 16, 2024AFAD 2-0 BouakéLigue 1

Out and doubtful

Bouaké

No absences reported.

AFAD

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bouaké vs AFAD prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Bouaké a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AFAD 26%. Bouaké are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Bouaké vs AFAD?

1-1 (12.0%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (7.7%).

Will both teams score in Bouaké vs AFAD?

The probability that both Bouaké and AFAD score is 52%. Bouaké have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AFAD 21%.

How many goals should we expect in Bouaké vs AFAD?

The model expects 2.63 goals (1.56 for Bouaké, 1.07 for AFAD). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Bouaké vs AFAD played?

Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Ivorian Ligue 1, matchday 1.

What form are Bouaké and AFAD in?

Bouaké: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 4 conceded). AFAD: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Bouaké and AFAD?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Bouaké, 2 for AFAD and 1 draw. The most recent ended AFAD 1-2 Bouaké (Apr 19, 2026).

What was the Bouaké vs AFAD result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Bouaké 2-1 AFAD. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Bouaké was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (9.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.

How is the Bouaké vs AFAD prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.56 for Bouaké, 1.07 for AFAD) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained