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Ivorian Ligue 1Ivorian Ligue 1· Kick-off : Thursday, November 5, 2026, 15:30 (UK time)

Stella vs AFAD: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

StellaStella1 – 1AFADAFAD

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Stella 1-1 AFAD. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stella (53%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

Match analysis

Stella and AFAD met on Thursday, November 5, 2026, a Ivorian Ligue 1, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Stade Robert-Champroux, Abidjan. Before kick-off, our model gave Stella a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AFAD 23%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, Stella have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. AFAD have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 6 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Stella score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; AFAD score 1.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Stella sit 11th with 5 points from 4 games, AFAD 9th with 5 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Stella, 3 for AFAD and 2 draws. The most recent ended Stella 1-2 AFAD (Apr 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "Stella or draw" stands at 77%, "AFAD or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Stella are tipped by our AI model in this Stella v AFAD (53%). In the table, Stella (11th, 5 pts) host AFAD (9th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

53%
Stella (Win)
24%
Draw
23%
AFAD (Win)

Double chance

77%
Stella or draw
47%
AFAD or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Stella – AFAD. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Stella 1-1 AFAD11.6%
Stella 1-0 AFAD11.5%
Stella 2-1 AFAD9.6%
Stella 2-0 AFAD9.5%
Stella 0-1 AFAD7.0%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.66 expected goals for Stella and 1.01 for AFAD, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Stella keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, AFAD in 19%.

Probability
Stella expected goals1.66
AFAD expected goals1.01
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Stella clean sheet36%
AFAD clean sheet19%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Stella

DateOpponentScore
Oct 25, 2026ISCA · Ivorian Ligue 12-1W
Oct 11, 2026Yamoussoukro · Ivorian Ligue 11-1D
Oct 4, 2026ASEC Mimosas · Ivorian Ligue 10-0D
Sep 27, 2026SOA · Ivorian Ligue 11-2L
May 23, 2026Racing d'Abidjan · Ivorian Ligue 12-1W

AFAD

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Yamoussoukro · Ivorian Ligue 13-0W
Oct 24, 2026CS Sfaxien · CAF Confederation Cup0-1L
Oct 17, 2026CS Sfaxien · CAF Confederation Cup1-1D
Oct 10, 2026ASEC Mimosas · Ivorian Ligue 11-1D
Oct 4, 2026SOA · Ivorian Ligue 11-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Stella1154
AFAD954

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 4, 2026Stella 1-2 AFADLigue 1
Nov 5, 2025AFAD 2-0 StellaLigue 1
May 4, 2025AFAD 0-0 StellaLigue 1
Dec 8, 2024Stella 0-1 AFADLigue 1
May 26, 2024AFAD 1-1 StellaLigue 1

Out and doubtful

Stella

No absences reported.

AFAD

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Stella vs AFAD prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Stella a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AFAD 23%. Stella are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Stella vs AFAD?

1-1 (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.5%) and 0-1 (7.0%).

Will both teams score in Stella vs AFAD?

The probability that both Stella and AFAD score is 52%. Stella have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AFAD 19%.

How many goals should we expect in Stella vs AFAD?

The model expects 2.67 goals (1.66 for Stella, 1.01 for AFAD). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Stella vs AFAD played?

Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 15:30 (UK time), Ivorian Ligue 1, matchday 4. Venue: Stade Robert-Champroux, Abidjan.

What form are Stella and AFAD in?

Stella: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). AFAD: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Stella and AFAD?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Stella, 3 for AFAD and 2 draws. The most recent ended Stella 1-2 AFAD (Apr 4, 2026).

What was the Stella vs AFAD result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Stella 1-1 AFAD. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Stella (53%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): correct.

How is the Stella vs AFAD prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Stella, 1.01 for AFAD) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained