Senegal Ligue 1· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)
Gorée vs Essamaye: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Gorée 1-0 Essamaye. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Gorée was the model's favourite outcome (86%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): missed.
Match analysis
Gorée vs Essamaye was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 4). Before kick-off, our model gave Gorée a 86% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Essamaye 4%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (12.8%), ahead of 3-0 (12.8%) and 4-0 (9.6%).
Gorée are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 5 and conceding 1. Essamaye have not won any of their last 3 matches (2 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 0 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Gorée. On average Gorée score 1.00 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Essamaye score 0.00 and concede 0.33. In the table, Gorée sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Essamaye 12th with 2 points from 3. 11 places separate the two sides.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Gorée and Essamaye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Gorée or draw" stands at 96%, "Essamaye or draw" at 14% and "no draw" at 90%.
In short : Gorée are favourites for this Gorée v Essamaye, with a 86% win probability from our model. In the table, Gorée (1st, 7 pts) host Essamaye (12th, 2 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Gorée – Essamaye. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gorée 2-0 Essamaye | 12.8% |
| Gorée 3-0 Essamaye | 12.8% |
| Gorée 4-0 Essamaye | 9.6% |
| Gorée 1-0 Essamaye | 8.5% |
| Gorée 2-1 Essamaye | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.56 goals in total (3.00 for Gorée, 0.56 for Essamaye): over 2.5 goals has a 69% probability and both teams to score 41%. Everything points to an open game. Gorée keep a clean sheet in 57% of scenarios, Essamaye in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Gorée expected goals | 3.00 |
| Essamaye expected goals | 0.56 |
| Both teams to score | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% |
| Gorée clean sheet | 57% |
| Essamaye clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Gorée
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Ouakam · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | DSC · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | La Linguère · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Stade de Mbour · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 22, 2026 | Wally Daan · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Essamaye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | DSC · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Pikine · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Diambars · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gorée | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| Essamaye | 12 | 2 | 3 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Gorée and Essamaye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Gorée
No absences reported.
Essamaye
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Teungueth 1-0 OuakamNov 5, 2026
- Wally Daan 0-1 AJELNov 7, 2026
- DSC 1-1 PikineNov 7, 2026
- Ouakam 1-0 Génération FootNov 8, 2026
- Teungueth 1-2 HLMNov 8, 2026
- Casa Sport 1-1 DiambarsNov 8, 2026
- Stade de Mbour 0-0 JaraafNov 8, 2026
- Guédiawaye 1-0 La LinguèreNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Gorée vs Essamaye prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Gorée a 86% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Essamaye 4%. Gorée are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Gorée vs Essamaye?
2-0 (12.8%), followed by 3-0 (12.8%), 4-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Gorée vs Essamaye?
The probability that both Gorée and Essamaye score is 41%. Gorée have a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Essamaye 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Gorée vs Essamaye?
The model expects 3.56 goals (3.00 for Gorée, 0.56 for Essamaye). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 69%, over 3.5 goals 48%.
When and where is Gorée vs Essamaye played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 4.
What form are Gorée and Essamaye in?
Gorée: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 1 conceded). Essamaye: 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 3 matches (0 scored, 1 conceded).
What was the Gorée vs Essamaye result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Gorée 1-0 Essamaye. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Gorée was the model's favourite outcome (86%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.5%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (41%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (69%): missed.
How is the Gorée vs Essamaye prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.00 for Gorée, 0.56 for Essamaye) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Gorée predictions
- All Essamaye predictions
- Senegal Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology