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Senegal Ligue 1Senegal Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)

Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf: 0-0 result and AI prediction review

Stade de MbourStade de Mbour0 – 0JaraafJaraaf

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-1

Final score: Stade de Mbour 0-0 Jaraaf. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Jaraaf (63%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.

Match analysis

Stade de Mbour and Jaraaf met on Sunday, November 8, 2026, a Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 4 fixture. Before kick-off, our model gave Stade de Mbour a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Jaraaf 63%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 0-2 (11.4%) and 1-1 (10.1%).

Stade de Mbour have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 5. Jaraaf are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 2. Jaraaf therefore arrive in far better shape than Stade de Mbour. On average Stade de Mbour score 0.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Jaraaf score 1.40 and concede 0.40. In the table, Stade de Mbour sit 12th with 2 points from 3 games, Jaraaf 2nd with 7 points from 3. 10 places separate the two sides.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Stade de Mbour and Jaraaf: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Stade de Mbour or draw" stands at 37%, "Jaraaf or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 79%.

In short : Jaraaf are favourites for this Stade de Mbour v Jaraaf, with a 63% win probability from our model. On recent form, Stade de Mbour have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Jaraaf have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

16%
Stade de Mbour (Win)
21%
Draw
63%
Jaraaf (Win)

Double chance

37%
Stade de Mbour or draw
84%
Jaraaf or draw
79%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Stade de Mbour – Jaraaf. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Stade de Mbour 0-1 Jaraaf11.8%
Stade de Mbour 0-2 Jaraaf11.4%
Stade de Mbour 1-1 Jaraaf10.1%
Stade de Mbour 1-2 Jaraaf9.8%
Stade de Mbour 0-3 Jaraaf7.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.86 expected goals for Stade de Mbour and 1.94 for Jaraaf, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Stade de Mbour keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, Jaraaf in 42%.

Probability
Stade de Mbour expected goals0.86
Jaraaf expected goals1.94
Both teams to score49%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Stade de Mbour clean sheet14%
Jaraaf clean sheet42%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Stade de Mbour

DateOpponentScore
Oct 30, 2026HLM · Senegal Ligue 12-3L
Oct 25, 2026Guédiawaye · Senegal Ligue 10-0D
Oct 17, 2026Wally Daan · Senegal Ligue 10-0D
Jun 4, 2026Gorée · Senegal Ligue 10-0D
May 22, 2026Guédiawaye · Senegal Ligue 10-2L

Jaraaf

DateOpponentScore
Nov 1, 2026Wally Daan · Senegal Ligue 11-0W
Oct 25, 2026Ouakam · Senegal Ligue 13-1W
Oct 17, 2026AJEL · Senegal Ligue 11-1D
Jun 4, 2026AS Camberene · Senegal Ligue 12-0W
May 22, 2026Casa Sport · Senegal Ligue 10-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Stade de Mbour1223
Jaraaf273

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Stade de Mbour and Jaraaf: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Stade de Mbour

No absences reported.

Jaraaf

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Stade de Mbour a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Jaraaf 63%. Jaraaf are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf?

0-1 (11.8%), followed by 0-2 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-3 (7.4%).

Will both teams score in Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf?

The probability that both Stade de Mbour and Jaraaf score is 49%. Stade de Mbour have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Jaraaf 42%.

How many goals should we expect in Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf?

The model expects 2.80 goals (0.86 for Stade de Mbour, 1.94 for Jaraaf). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.

When and where is Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf played?

Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 4.

What form are Stade de Mbour and Jaraaf in?

Stade de Mbour: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 5 conceded). Jaraaf: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 2 conceded).

What was the Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Stade de Mbour 0-0 Jaraaf. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Jaraaf (63%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): missed.

How is the Stade de Mbour vs Jaraaf prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.86 for Stade de Mbour, 1.94 for Jaraaf) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained