Ligue 2· Kick-off : Friday, November 6, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)
Montpellier vs Metz: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Montpellier 2-3 Metz. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Montpellier (50%), while victory for Metz was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
Match analysis
Montpellier vs Metz was played on Friday, November 6, 2026 (Ligue 2, matchday 12). Venue: Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier. Before kick-off, our model gave Montpellier a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Metz 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.1%), ahead of 1-1 (12.4%) and 2-0 (9.6%).
Montpellier are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 11 and conceding 2. Metz have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 12. Recent momentum is clearly with Montpellier. On average Montpellier score 2.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Metz score 1.80 and concede 2.40. In the table, Montpellier sit 2nd with 24 points from 11 games, Metz 10th with 14 points from 11. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Montpellier have averaged 1.27 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.73 for Metz.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Montpellier, 0 for Metz and 1 draw. The most recent ended Metz 0-4 Montpellier (Jan 11, 2026). In double chance terms, "Montpellier or draw" stands at 76%, "Metz or draw" at 51% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Montpellier are favourites for this Montpellier v Metz, with a 49% win probability from our model. In the table, Montpellier (2nd, 24 pts) host Metz (10th, 14 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Montpellier – Metz. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Montpellier 1-0 Metz | 13.1% |
| Montpellier 1-1 Metz | 12.4% |
| Montpellier 2-0 Metz | 9.6% |
| Montpellier 2-1 Metz | 9.1% |
| Montpellier 0-0 Metz | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.42 goals in total (1.47 for Montpellier, 0.95 for Metz): over 2.5 goals has a 44% probability and both teams to score 47%. Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Metz in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Montpellier expected goals | 1.47 |
| Metz expected goals | 0.95 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Montpellier clean sheet | 39% |
| Metz clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Montpellier
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Annecy · Ligue 2 | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 26, 2026 | RED Star FC 93 · Ligue 2 | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Rodez · Ligue 2 | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Grenoble · Ligue 2 | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Reims · Ligue 2 | 1-1 | D |
Metz
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | PAU · Ligue 2 | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Dunkerque · Ligue 2 | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sochaux · Ligue 2 | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Dijon · Ligue 2 | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Saint Etienne · Ligue 2 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 2 | 24 | 11 |
| Metz | 10 | 14 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Metz 0-4 Montpellier | Coupe de France |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Montpellier 3-0 Metz | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Metz 0-1 Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| May 1, 2022 | Montpellier 2-2 Metz | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 1, 2021 | Metz 1-3 Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
Out and doubtful
Montpellier
No absences reported.
Metz
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Montpellier
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Laporte5/5
- M. Camara5/5
- N. Pays5/5
- S. Ngapandouetnbu5/5
- D. Meddah4/5
- F. Tardieu4/5
- T. Chennahi4/5
- N. Vidal-Cartoux3/5
- T. Sainte-Luce3/5
- Y. Mouanga3/5
- Y. Zouaoui3/5
Metz
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Sarr5/5
- C. Devenish5/5
- J. Deminguet5/5
- J. Fischer5/5
- G. Abuashvili4/5
- J. Ruiz4/5
- P. M. Fall4/5
- T. Savanier4/5
- F. Miguel3/5
- I. Mohamed3/5
- A. Mbodji2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Reims 2-0 SochauxNov 2, 2026
- RED Star FC 93 1-4 NancyNov 2, 2026
- Dijon 1-0 RED Star FC 93Nov 6, 2026
- Nancy 1-0 SochauxNov 6, 2026
- Grenoble 3-2 ReimsNov 6, 2026
- Boulogne 3-0 AnnecyNov 6, 2026
- Dunkerque 3-0 GuingampNov 6, 2026
- Clermont Foot 1-0 RodezNov 7, 2026
- PAU 0-2 NantesNov 7, 2026
- Saint Etienne 2-0 LavalNov 7, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Montpellier vs Metz prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Montpellier a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Metz 24%. Montpellier are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Montpellier vs Metz?
1-0 (13.1%), followed by 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.1%) and 0-0 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Metz?
The probability that both Montpellier and Metz score is 47%. Montpellier have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Metz 23%.
How many goals should we expect in Montpellier vs Metz?
The model expects 2.42 goals (1.47 for Montpellier, 0.95 for Metz). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Montpellier vs Metz played?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Ligue 2, matchday 12. Venue: Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier.
What form are Montpellier and Metz in?
Montpellier: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 2 conceded). Metz: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Metz?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Montpellier, 0 for Metz and 1 draw. The most recent ended Metz 0-4 Montpellier (Jan 11, 2026).
What was the Montpellier vs Metz result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Montpellier 2-3 Metz. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Montpellier (50%), while victory for Metz was rated at only 24%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
How is the Montpellier vs Metz prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.47 for Montpellier, 0.95 for Metz) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Montpellier predictions
- All Metz predictions
- Ligue 2 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology