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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, November 16, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction: correct score and AI tips

EstoniaEstonia–BulgariaBulgaria

Match analysis

UEFA Nations League: Estonia vs Bulgaria kicks off on Monday, November 16, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). With a 71% win probability, Estonia go in as strong favourites against Bulgaria (11%), with the draw rated at 18%.

Estonia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 3 and conceding 1. Bulgaria have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Estonia. On average Estonia score 0.60 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Bulgaria score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Estonia sit 2nd with 6 points from 4 games, Bulgaria 3rd with 4 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Estonia have averaged 1.60 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.12 for Bulgaria.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estonia, 0 for Bulgaria and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia (Sep 29, 2026). In double chance terms, "Estonia or draw" stands at 89%, "Bulgaria or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 82%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

71%
Estonia (Win)
18%
Draw
11%
Bulgaria (Win)

Double chance

89%
Estonia or draw
29%
Bulgaria or draw
82%
No draw

Exact score and goal markets 🔒

The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.

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Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Estonia

DateOpponentScore
Oct 6, 2026Iceland · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Oct 3, 2026Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League1-0W
Sep 29, 2026Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Sep 26, 2026Iceland · UEFA Nations League1-1D
Jun 9, 2026Lithuania · Baltic Cup1-0W

Bulgaria

DateOpponentScore
Oct 6, 2026Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League2-0W
Oct 3, 2026Iceland · UEFA Nations League0-3L
Sep 29, 2026Estonia · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Sep 26, 2026Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League1-2L
Jun 5, 2026Moldova · International Friendlies2-2D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Estonia264
Bulgaria344

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 29, 2026Bulgaria 0-0 EstoniaUEFA Nations League

Out and doubtful

Estonia

No absences reported.

Bulgaria

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Estonia

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • M. Kuusk4/5
  • M. Poom4/5
  • P. Kristal4/5
  • K. Hein3/5
  • K. Mets3/5
  • K. Palumets3/5
  • M. Kait3/5
  • M. Paskotsi3/5
  • M. Schjonning-Larsen3/5
  • R. Peetson3/5
  • R. Saarma3/5

Bulgaria

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Naumov4/5
  • D. Velkovski4/5
  • G. Rusev4/5
  • I. Gruev4/5
  • I. Turitsov4/5
  • L. Petkov4/5
  • E. Tsenov3/5
  • K. Dimitrov3/5
  • S. Velkov3/5
  • Z. Dimitrov3/5
  • A. Chandarov2/5

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Frequently asked questions

What is the Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction?

Our AI gives Estonia a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Bulgaria 11%. Estonia are therefore favourites.

When and where is Estonia vs Bulgaria played?

Monday, November 16, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.

What form are Estonia and Bulgaria in?

Estonia: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 1 conceded). Bulgaria: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Estonia and Bulgaria?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estonia, 0 for Bulgaria and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia (Sep 29, 2026).

Go further

Key terms explained