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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, November 16, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)

Iceland vs Luxembourg prediction: correct score and AI tips

IcelandIceland–LuxembourgLuxembourg

Match analysis

UEFA Nations League: the Iceland vs Luxembourg match is scheduled on Monday, November 16, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). With a 95% win probability, Iceland go in as strong favourites against Luxembourg (1%), with the draw rated at 4%.

Over their last 5 matches, Iceland have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Iceland score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Luxembourg score 0.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Iceland sit 1st with 8 points from 4 games, Luxembourg 4th with 3 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Iceland have averaged 2.98 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.56 for Luxembourg.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Iceland, 1 for Luxembourg and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg (Oct 13, 2023). In double chance terms, "Iceland or draw" stands at 99%, "Luxembourg or draw" at 5% and "no draw" at 96%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

95%
Iceland (Win)
4%
Draw
1%
Luxembourg (Win)

Double chance

99%
Iceland or draw
5%
Luxembourg or draw
96%
No draw

Exact score and goal markets 🔒

The most likely exact score, the top 5 scorelines, expected goals and the both-teams-to-score and over/under probabilities are part of the full prediction. They will be published here as a review once the match is over.

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Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Iceland

DateOpponentScore
Oct 6, 2026Estonia · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Oct 3, 2026Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League3-0W
Sep 29, 2026Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League3-0W
Sep 26, 2026Estonia · UEFA Nations League1-1D
Jun 10, 2026Argentina · International Friendlies0-3L

Luxembourg

DateOpponentScore
Oct 6, 2026Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League0-2L
Oct 3, 2026Estonia · UEFA Nations League0-1L
Sep 29, 2026Iceland · UEFA Nations League0-3L
Sep 26, 2026Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League2-1W
Jun 6, 2026Albania · International Friendlies1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Iceland184
Luxembourg434

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 13, 2023Iceland 1-1 LuxembourgEuro Championship - Qualification
Sep 8, 2023Luxembourg 3-1 IcelandEuro Championship - Qualification

Out and doubtful

Iceland

No absences reported.

Luxembourg

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Iceland

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • H. Haraldsson5/5
  • I. Johannesson4/5
  • M. E. Ellertsson4/5
  • O. Oskarsson4/5
  • D. L. Gretarsson3/5
  • H. R. Valdimarsson3/5
  • V. Palsson3/5
  • A. Gudjohnsen2/5
  • A. Gudmundsson2/5
  • H. Magnusson2/5
  • J. Thorsteinsson2/5

Luxembourg

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Carlson5/5
  • V. Thill5/5
  • A. Dardari4/5
  • A. Moris4/5
  • F. Bohnert4/5
  • T. de Sousa4/5
  • E. Mahmutovic3/5
  • H. Kadamani3/5
  • L. Jans3/5
  • D. Sinani2/5
  • E. Duarte2/5

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See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Iceland vs Luxembourg prediction?

Our AI gives Iceland a 95% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Luxembourg 1%. Iceland are therefore favourites.

When and where is Iceland vs Luxembourg played?

Monday, November 16, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.

What form are Iceland and Luxembourg in?

Iceland: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Luxembourg: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Iceland and Luxembourg?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Iceland, 1 for Luxembourg and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Luxembourg (Oct 13, 2023).

Go further

Key terms explained