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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)

Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München: 0-2 result and AI prediction review

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid0 – 2Bayern MünchenBayern München

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-3

Final score: Atletico Madrid 0-2 Bayern München. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayern München at 79%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (5.8%), behind 1-3. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (84%): missed.

Match analysis

Atletico Madrid and Bayern München met on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Madrid a 9% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Bayern München 79%. On the correct score, 1-3 comes out on top (7.9%), followed by 1-2 (7.0%) and 1-4 (6.7%).

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 7 and conceding 1. Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 19 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atletico Madrid score 1.40 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Bayern München score 3.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Atletico Madrid sit 16th with 4 points from 3 games, Bayern München 14th with 5 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.18 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.47 for Bayern München.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Madrid, 3 for Bayern München and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 1-1 Bayern München (Dec 1, 2020). Atletico Madrid out or doubtful: J. Cardoso and M. Hjulmand (suspended). Bayern München: L. Diaz, S. Gnabry, J. Musiala and I. Saibari. In double chance terms, "Atletico Madrid or draw" stands at 21%, "Bayern München or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 88%.

In short : Bayern München are tipped by our AI model in this Atletico Madrid v Bayern München (79%). In the table, Atletico Madrid (16th, 4 pts) host Bayern München (14th, 5 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-3.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

9%
Atletico Madrid (Win)
12%
Draw
79%
Bayern München (Win)

Double chance

21%
Atletico Madrid or draw
91%
Bayern München or draw
88%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atletico Madrid – Bayern München. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 34% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atletico Madrid 1-3 Bayern München7.9%
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Bayern München7.0%
Atletico Madrid 1-4 Bayern München6.7%
Atletico Madrid 0-3 Bayern München6.6%
Atletico Madrid 0-2 Bayern München5.8%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.20 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 3.40 for Bayern München, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 84% and "both teams to score" at 68%. Goals look likely in this one. Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 3% of scenarios, Bayern München in 30%.

Probability
Atletico Madrid expected goals1.20
Bayern München expected goals3.40
Both teams to score68%
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals84%
Over 3.5 goals67%
Atletico Madrid clean sheet3%
Bayern München clean sheet30%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Atletico Madrid

DateOpponentScore
Oct 31, 2026Levante · La Liga2-0W
Oct 24, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga1-0W
Oct 20, 2026VfB Stuttgart · UEFA Champions League1-1D
Oct 17, 2026Espanyol · La Liga1-0W
Oct 13, 2026Manchester United · UEFA Champions League2-0W

Bayern München

DateOpponentScore
Oct 31, 2026Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2-2D
Oct 28, 20261. FC Magdeburg · DFB-Pokal6-1W
Oct 25, 2026SC Freiburg · Bundesliga3-1W
Oct 21, 2026Arsenal · UEFA Champions League2-2D
Oct 17, 2026RB Leipzig · Bundesliga6-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Atletico Madrid1643
Bayern München1453

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Dec 1, 2020Atletico Madrid 1-1 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
Oct 21, 2020Bayern München 4-0 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
Dec 6, 2016Bayern München 1-0 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
Sep 28, 2016Atletico Madrid 1-0 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
May 3, 2016Bayern München 2-1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League

Out and doubtful

Atletico Madrid

  • J. Cardoso (out)
  • M. Hjulmand (suspended)

Bayern München

  • L. Diaz (out)
  • S. Gnabry (out)
  • J. Musiala (out)
  • I. Saibari (out)

Most regular starters

Atletico Madrid

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • D. Hancko5/5
  • J. Oblak5/5
  • G. Simeone4/5
  • Lee Kang-In4/5
  • M. Hjulmand4/5
  • P. Barrios3/5
  • A. Baena2/5
  • A. Grimaldo2/5
  • A. Lookman2/5
  • Álex Baena2/5
  • Álex Grimaldo2/5

Bayern München

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • I. Saibari4/5
  • K. Laimer4/5
  • D. Upamecano3/5
  • H. Kane3/5
  • J. Urbig3/5
  • Kim Min-Jae3/5
  • M. Olise3/5
  • S. Gnabry3/5
  • A. Davies2/5
  • A. Pavlović2/5
  • J. Kimmich2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Madrid a 9% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Bayern München 79%. Bayern München are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?

1-3 (7.9%), followed by 1-2 (7.0%), 1-4 (6.7%), 0-3 (6.6%) and 0-2 (5.8%).

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?

The probability that both Atletico Madrid and Bayern München score is 68%. Atletico Madrid have a 3% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayern München 30%.

How many goals should we expect in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?

The model expects 4.60 goals (1.20 for Atletico Madrid, 3.40 for Bayern München). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 84%, over 3.5 goals 67%.

When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München played?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid.

What form are Atletico Madrid and Bayern München in?

Atletico Madrid: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 1 conceded). Bayern München: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (19 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Bayern München?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atletico Madrid, 3 for Bayern München and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico Madrid 1-1 Bayern München (Dec 1, 2020).

What was the Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atletico Madrid 0-2 Bayern München. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bayern München at 79%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (5.8%), behind 1-3. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (84%): missed.

How is the Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.20 for Atletico Madrid, 3.40 for Bayern München) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained