UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Atletico Madrid take on Bayern München on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid. Our model makes Bayern München clear favourites: a 87% chance of winning, against 8% for the draw and 5% for Atletico Madrid. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (7.6%), followed by 1-3 (7.4%) and 0-4 (7.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 18 and conceding 2. Bayern München therefore arrive in far better shape than Atletico Madrid. On average Atletico Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Bayern München score 3.60 and concede 0.40. In the table, Atletico Madrid sit 26th with 0 points from 1 games, Bayern München 2nd with 3 points from 1. 24 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atletico Madrid have averaged 1.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.38 for Bayern München.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Atletico Madrid and Bayern München: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Atletico Madrid out or doubtful: P. Barrios and A. Sorloth. Bayern München: T. Buchmann. In double chance terms, "Atletico Madrid or draw" stands at 13%, "Bayern München or draw" at 95% and "no draw" at 92%.
In short : Bayern München are tipped by our AI model in this Atletico Madrid v Bayern München (87%). In the table, Atletico Madrid (26th, 0 pts) host Bayern München (2nd, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Madrid – Bayern München. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 0-3 Bayern München | 7.6% |
| Atletico Madrid 1-3 Bayern München | 7.4% |
| Atletico Madrid 0-4 Bayern München | 7.4% |
| Atletico Madrid 1-4 Bayern München | 7.2% |
| Atletico Madrid 0-2 Bayern München | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.97 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 3.88 for Bayern München, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 86% and "both teams to score" at 61%. Goals look likely in this one. Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Bayern München in 38%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid expected goals | 0.97 |
| Bayern München expected goals | 3.88 |
| Both teams to score | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 2% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 38% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Liverpool · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
Bayern München
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Union Berlin · Bundesliga | 7-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | VfL Osnabrück · DFB-Pokal | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 26 | 0 | 1 |
| Bayern München | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Atletico Madrid and Bayern München: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Atletico Madrid
- P. Barrios (out)
- A. Sorloth (out)
Bayern München
- T. Buchmann (out)
Most regular starters
Atletico Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Oblak5/5
- Lee Kang-In5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- C. Romero4/5
- D. Hancko4/5
- G. Simeone4/5
- M. Llorente4/5
- A. Grimaldo3/5
- A. Lookman3/5
- M. Pubill3/5
- J. Cardoso2/5
Bayern München
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Upamecano4/5
- H. Kane4/5
- J. Kimmich4/5
- J. Tah4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- A. Davies3/5
- I. Saibari3/5
- M. Neuer3/5
- N. Brown3/5
- A. Pavlovic2/5
- A. Pavlović2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Madrid a 5% chance of winning, the draw 8% and Bayern München 87%. Bayern München are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
0-3 (7.6%), followed by 1-3 (7.4%), 0-4 (7.4%), 1-4 (7.2%) and 0-2 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
The probability that both Atletico Madrid and Bayern München score is 61%. Atletico Madrid have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bayern München 38%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München?
The model expects 4.85 goals (0.97 for Atletico Madrid, 3.88 for Bayern München). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Bayern München in?
Atletico Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Bayern München: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 2 conceded).
How is the Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.97 for Atletico Madrid, 3.88 for Bayern München) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Madrid predictions
- All Bayern München predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology