UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Villarreal take on Paris Saint Germain on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal. Our model makes Paris Saint Germain clear favourites: a 66% chance of winning, against 17% for the draw and 17% for Villarreal. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (8.7%), followed by 1-3 (7.8%) and 0-2 (6.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Paris Saint Germain have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Paris Saint Germain therefore arrive in far better shape than Villarreal. On average Villarreal score 2.20 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Paris Saint Germain score 2.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Villarreal sit 21st with 0 points from 1 games, Paris Saint Germain 1st with 3 points from 1. 20 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Villarreal have averaged 2.16 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.64 for Paris Saint Germain.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Villarreal out or doubtful: S. Comesana. Paris Saint Germain: A. Hakimi and Q. Ndjantou. In double chance terms, "Villarreal or draw" stands at 34%, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" at 83% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Paris Saint Germain are tipped by our AI model in this Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain (66%). On recent form, Villarreal have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Paris Saint Germain have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Villarreal – Paris Saint Germain. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (8.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | 8.7% |
| Villarreal 1-3 Paris Saint Germain | 7.8% |
| Villarreal 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | 6.6% |
| Villarreal 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | 6.5% |
| Villarreal 0-3 Paris Saint Germain | 5.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.32 expected goals for Villarreal and 2.68 for Paris Saint Germain, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 76% and "both teams to score" at 68%. Goals look likely in this one. Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Paris Saint Germain in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Villarreal expected goals | 1.32 |
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 68% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 7% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Villarreal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 6-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Villarreal
- S. Comesana (out)
Paris Saint Germain
- A. Hakimi (out)
- Q. Ndjantou (out)
Most regular starters
Villarreal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Saliba4/5
- P. Gueye4/5
- T. Buchanan4/5
- A. Freeman3/5
- R. Veiga3/5
- Alberto Moleiro2/5
- Ayoze Pérez2/5
- G. Mikautadze2/5
- G. Moreno2/5
- Ilias Akhomach2/5
- N. Pepe2/5
Paris Saint Germain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Vitinha5/5
- Marquinhos4/5
- Achraf Hakimi3/5
- Fabián Ruiz3/5
- João Neves3/5
- Matvey Safonov3/5
- Warren Zaïre-Emery3/5
- Willian Pacho3/5
- Désiré Doué2/5
- Ferran Torres2/5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction?
Our AI gives Villarreal a 17% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Paris Saint Germain 66%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
1-2 (8.7%), followed by 1-3 (7.8%), 0-2 (6.6%), 1-1 (6.5%) and 0-3 (5.9%).
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
The probability that both Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain score is 68%. Villarreal have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Paris Saint Germain 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model expects 4.00 goals (1.32 for Villarreal, 2.68 for Paris Saint Germain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 76%, over 3.5 goals 57%.
When and where is Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal.
What form are Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain in?
Villarreal: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 10 conceded). Paris Saint Germain: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.32 for Villarreal, 2.68 for Paris Saint Germain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Villarreal predictions
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology