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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)

AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction: correct score and AI tips

AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC–Real MadridReal Madrid

Match analysis

UEFA Champions League: AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid kicks off on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time). Venue: Allwyn Arena, Athens. With a 68% win probability, Real Madrid go in as strong favourites against AEK Athens FC (16%), with the draw rated at 16%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (7.6%), ahead of 1-3 (7.6%) and 1-4 (5.7%).

AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 17 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Real Madrid have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with AEK Athens FC. On average AEK Athens FC score 3.40 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Real Madrid score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, AEK Athens FC sit 16th with 3 points from 1 games, Real Madrid 14th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, AEK Athens FC have averaged 1.71 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.58 for Real Madrid.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Real Madrid: Eder Militao, F. Mendy and Rodrygo. In double chance terms, "AEK Athens FC or draw" stands at 32%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 84%.

In short : Our model backs Real Madrid to edge AEK Athens FC (68% probability). In the table, AEK Athens FC (16th, 3 pts) host Real Madrid (14th, 3 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 82%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

16%
AEK Athens FC (Win)
16%
Draw
68%
Real Madrid (Win)

Double chance

32%
AEK Athens FC or draw
84%
Real Madrid or draw
84%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as AEK Athens FC – Real Madrid. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (7.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 32% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
AEK Athens FC 1-2 Real Madrid7.6%
AEK Athens FC 1-3 Real Madrid7.6%
AEK Athens FC 1-4 Real Madrid5.7%
AEK Athens FC 2-2 Real Madrid5.6%
AEK Athens FC 2-3 Real Madrid5.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 4.46 goals in total (1.47 for AEK Athens FC, 2.99 for Real Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 82% probability and both teams to score 73%. Everything points to an open game. AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 23%.

Probability
AEK Athens FC expected goals1.47
Real Madrid expected goals2.99
Both teams to score73%
Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals82%
Over 3.5 goals65%
AEK Athens FC clean sheet5%
Real Madrid clean sheet23%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

AEK Athens FC

DateOpponentScore
Sep 17, 2026Panserraikos · Cup8-1W
Sep 13, 2026Asteras Tripolis · Super League 11-1D
Sep 8, 2026Lask Linz · UEFA Champions League1-0W
Sep 5, 2026Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 15-0W
Sep 2, 2026Nestos Chrisoupolis · Cup2-0W

Real Madrid

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Atletico Madrid · La Liga1-2L
Sep 15, 2026Elche · La Liga3-2W
Sep 12, 2026Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4-1W
Sep 8, 2026Inter · UEFA Champions League2-1W
Sep 4, 2026Real Betis · La Liga0-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
AEK Athens FC1631
Real Madrid1431

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

AEK Athens FC

No absences reported.

Real Madrid

  • Eder Militao (out)
  • F. Mendy (out)
  • Rodrygo (out)

Most regular starters

AEK Athens FC

Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Brignoli3/4
  • H. Moukoudi3/4
  • L. Majer3/4
  • L. Rota3/4
  • R. Marin3/4
  • B. Varga2/4
  • F. Relvas2/4
  • K. Arriaga2/4
  • L. Jovic2/4
  • M. Gacinovic2/4
  • M. Vitalis2/4

Real Madrid

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • F. Valverde5/5
  • T. Courtois5/5
  • D. Dumfries4/5
  • D. Huijsen4/5
  • I. Konate4/5
  • J. Bellingham4/5
  • K. Mbappe4/5
  • Vinicius Junior4/5
  • M. Cucurella3/5
  • A. Guler2/5
  • T. Alexander-Arnold2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction?

Our AI gives AEK Athens FC a 16% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Real Madrid 68%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?

1-2 (7.6%), followed by 1-3 (7.6%), 1-4 (5.7%), 2-2 (5.6%) and 2-3 (5.6%).

Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?

The probability that both AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid score is 73%. AEK Athens FC have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 23%.

How many goals should we expect in AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 4.46 goals (1.47 for AEK Athens FC, 2.99 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 82%, over 3.5 goals 65%.

When and where is AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid played?

Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Allwyn Arena, Athens.

What form are AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid in?

AEK Athens FC: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 2 conceded). Real Madrid: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).

How is the AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.47 for AEK Athens FC, 2.99 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained