UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 17:45 (UK time)
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: AEK Athens FC 2-3 Real Madrid. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Real Madrid was the model's favourite outcome (81%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.
Match analysis
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid was played on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia. Before kick-off, our model gave AEK Athens FC a 7% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Real Madrid 81%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (10.4%), ahead of 0-3 (10.3%) and 1-2 (8.1%).
AEK Athens FC have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 13. Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 17 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Real Madrid. On average AEK Athens FC score 1.60 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Real Madrid score 3.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, AEK Athens FC sit 27th with 3 points from 3 games, Real Madrid 5th with 9 points from 3. 22 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, AEK Athens FC have averaged 1.29 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.45 for Real Madrid.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Real Madrid: R. Asencio, F. Mendy, Rodrygo, F. Valverde and Vinicius Junior (suspended). In double chance terms, "AEK Athens FC or draw" stands at 19%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 93% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Our model backs Real Madrid to edge AEK Athens FC (81% probability). In the table, AEK Athens FC (27th, 3 pts) host Real Madrid (5th, 9 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 72%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as AEK Athens FC – Real Madrid. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (10.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC 0-2 Real Madrid | 10.4% |
| AEK Athens FC 0-3 Real Madrid | 10.3% |
| AEK Athens FC 1-2 Real Madrid | 8.1% |
| AEK Athens FC 1-3 Real Madrid | 8.0% |
| AEK Athens FC 0-4 Real Madrid | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.73 goals in total (0.78 for AEK Athens FC, 2.95 for Real Madrid): over 2.5 goals has a 72% probability and both teams to score 51%. Everything points to an open game. AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 5% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC expected goals | 0.78 |
| Real Madrid expected goals | 2.95 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% |
| AEK Athens FC clean sheet | 5% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
AEK Athens FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Panathinaikos · Super League 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 28, 2026 | PAOK · Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Panetolikos · Super League 1 | 5-0 | W |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Manchester City · UEFA Champions League | 1-5 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk · UEFA Champions League | 1-3 | L |
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma · UEFA Champions League | 4-3 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 27 | 3 | 3 |
| Real Madrid | 5 | 9 | 3 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
AEK Athens FC
No absences reported.
Real Madrid
- R. Asencio (out)
- F. Mendy (out)
- Rodrygo (out)
- F. Valverde (out)
- Vinicius Junior (suspended)
Most regular starters
AEK Athens FC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Rota5/5
- A. Brignoli4/5
- H. Moukoudi4/5
- L. Majer4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- B. Varga3/5
- Filipe Relvas3/5
- L. Jović3/5
- S. Pilios3/5
- Zini3/5
- A. Koita2/5
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Bellingham5/5
- D. Huijsen4/5
- F. Valverde4/5
- T. Courtois4/5
- Y. Diomande4/5
- Kylian Mbappé3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- A. Güler2/5
- A. Rüdiger2/5
- A. Tchouameni2/5
- A. Tchouaméni2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Barcelona 3-0 Aston VillaNov 3, 2026
- Manchester United 3-2 AS RomaNov 3, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 3-2 LiverpoolNov 4, 2026
- Viking 4-1 Sabah FANov 4, 2026
- PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Club Brugge KVNov 4, 2026
- FC Porto 4-1 NapoliNov 4, 2026
- Lens 1-9 ComoNov 4, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Real BetisNov 4, 2026
- RB Leipzig 2-3 Manchester CityNov 4, 2026
- Slavia Praha 1-2 ArsenalNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave AEK Athens FC a 7% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Real Madrid 81%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
0-2 (10.4%), followed by 0-3 (10.3%), 1-2 (8.1%), 1-3 (8.0%) and 0-4 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
The probability that both AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid score is 51%. AEK Athens FC have a 5% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 46%.
How many goals should we expect in AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
The model expects 3.73 goals (0.78 for AEK Athens FC, 2.95 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 72%, over 3.5 goals 51%.
When and where is AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 17:45 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid in?
AEK Athens FC: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 13 conceded). Real Madrid: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (17 scored, 6 conceded).
What was the AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: AEK Athens FC 2-3 Real Madrid. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Real Madrid was the model's favourite outcome (81%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.1%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (72%): correct.
How is the AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.78 for AEK Athens FC, 2.95 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All AEK Athens FC predictions
- All Real Madrid predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology