UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
FC Porto vs Napoli prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
FC Porto take on Napoli on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. The edge goes to FC Porto (45%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Napoli win (31%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.7%), ahead of 2-1 (9.2%) and 1-0 (7.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, FC Porto have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Napoli have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with FC Porto. On average FC Porto score 2.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Napoli score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, FC Porto sit 31st with 0 points from 1 games, Napoli 27th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, FC Porto have averaged 1.49 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.60 for Napoli.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and Napoli: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Napoli: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno, Giovane, L. Marianucci, S. McTominay, A. Meret and L. Spinazzola. In double chance terms, "FC Porto or draw" stands at 69%, "Napoli or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : FC Porto are tipped by our AI model in this FC Porto v Napoli (45%). On recent form, FC Porto are in good shape (4 wins in 5) while Napoli have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Porto – Napoli. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 42% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Porto 1-1 Napoli | 10.7% |
| FC Porto 2-1 Napoli | 9.2% |
| FC Porto 1-0 Napoli | 7.7% |
| FC Porto 1-2 Napoli | 7.4% |
| FC Porto 2-0 Napoli | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.10 goals in total (1.71 for FC Porto, 1.39 for Napoli): over 2.5 goals has a 60% probability and both teams to score 62%. Everything points to an open game. FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Napoli in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Porto expected goals | 1.71 |
| Napoli expected goals | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| FC Porto clean sheet | 25% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FC Porto
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Moreirense · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 3-0 | W |
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 31 | 0 | 1 |
| Napoli | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and Napoli: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
FC Porto
No absences reported.
Napoli
- Alisson Santos (out)
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- Giovane (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
- S. McTominay (out)
- A. Meret (out)
- L. Spinazzola (out)
Most regular starters
FC Porto
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Kiwior5/5
- P. Rosario5/5
- A. Costa4/5
- Andre Silva4/5
- D. Costa4/5
- G. Veiga4/5
- J. Bednarek4/5
- Pepê4/5
- William Gomes4/5
- F. Moura2/5
- V. Froholdt2/5
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rrahmani4/5
- G. Di Lorenzo4/5
- M. Politano4/5
- R. Hojlund4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- S. Lobotka4/5
- A. Meret3/5
- A. Vergara2/5
- Alisson Santos2/5
- B. Gilmour2/5
- F. Anguissa2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Porto vs Napoli prediction?
Our AI gives FC Porto a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Napoli 31%. FC Porto are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Porto vs Napoli?
1-1 (10.7%), followed by 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%), 1-2 (7.4%) and 2-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Napoli?
The probability that both FC Porto and Napoli score is 62%. FC Porto have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Napoli 18%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Porto vs Napoli?
The model expects 3.10 goals (1.71 for FC Porto, 1.39 for Napoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 60%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is FC Porto vs Napoli played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League.
What form are FC Porto and Napoli in?
FC Porto: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 5 conceded). Napoli: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the FC Porto vs Napoli prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for FC Porto, 1.39 for Napoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Porto predictions
- All Napoli predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology