UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
FC Porto vs Napoli: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: FC Porto 4-1 Napoli. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FC Porto was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
Match analysis
FC Porto vs Napoli was played on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto. Before kick-off, our model gave FC Porto a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Napoli 25%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (12.7%), ahead of 1-1 (12.5%) and 2-0 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, FC Porto have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average FC Porto score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Napoli score 2.20 and concede 2.00. In the table, FC Porto sit 35th with 0 points from 3 games, Napoli 24th with 3 points from 3. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, FC Porto have averaged 1.68 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.76 for Napoli.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and Napoli: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. FC Porto out or doubtful: Gabriel Mec, D. Prpic, C. Smalling, V. Sousa, William Gomes and O. Pietuszewski (doubtful). Napoli: S. Lobotka, L. Marianucci, M. Olivera, L. Spinazzola, K. De Bruyne (doubtful), Alisson Santos, C. Favasuli and B. Badiashile. In double chance terms, "FC Porto or draw" stands at 75%, "Napoli or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : FC Porto are tipped by our AI model in this FC Porto v Napoli (48%). On recent form, FC Porto have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Napoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as FC Porto – Napoli. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Porto 1-0 Napoli | 12.7% |
| FC Porto 1-1 Napoli | 12.5% |
| FC Porto 2-0 Napoli | 9.3% |
| FC Porto 2-1 Napoli | 9.1% |
| FC Porto 0-0 Napoli | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.44 goals in total (1.46 for FC Porto, 0.98 for Napoli): over 2.5 goals has a 44% probability and both teams to score 48%. FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Napoli in 23%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| FC Porto expected goals | 1.46 |
| Napoli expected goals | 0.98 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| FC Porto clean sheet | 38% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 23% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
FC Porto
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Estoril · Primeira Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Taça da Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 20, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Betis · UEFA Champions League | 2-3 | L |
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Monza · Serie A | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League | 4-3 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 35 | 0 | 3 |
| Napoli | 24 | 3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between FC Porto and Napoli: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
FC Porto
- Gabriel Mec (out)
- D. Prpic (out)
- C. Smalling (out)
- V. Sousa (out)
- William Gomes (out)
- O. Pietuszewski (doubtful)
Napoli
- S. Lobotka (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
- M. Olivera (out)
- L. Spinazzola (out)
- K. De Bruyne (doubtful)
- Alisson Santos (out)
- C. Favasuli (out)
- B. Badiashile (out)
Most regular starters
FC Porto
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Kiwior4/5
- P. Rosario4/5
- Diogo Costa3/5
- Gabri Veiga3/5
- J. Bednarek3/5
- Pepê Aquino3/5
- Victor Mow Froholdt3/5
- A. Varela2/5
- Alberto Baio2/5
- Borja Sainz2/5
- Samu2/5
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Di Lorenzo5/5
- S. McTominay5/5
- A. Meret4/5
- M. Politano4/5
- N. Lang4/5
- A. Zambo Anguissa3/5
- K. De Bruyne3/5
- M. Olivera3/5
- Rafa Marín3/5
- Amir Rrahmani2/5
- B. Badiashile2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Barcelona 3-0 Aston VillaNov 3, 2026
- Manchester United 3-2 AS RomaNov 3, 2026
- AEK Athens FC 2-3 Real MadridNov 4, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 3-2 LiverpoolNov 4, 2026
- Viking 4-1 Sabah FANov 4, 2026
- PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Club Brugge KVNov 4, 2026
- Lens 1-9 ComoNov 4, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Real BetisNov 4, 2026
- RB Leipzig 2-3 Manchester CityNov 4, 2026
- Slavia Praha 1-2 ArsenalNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the FC Porto vs Napoli prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave FC Porto a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Napoli 25%. FC Porto are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for FC Porto vs Napoli?
1-0 (12.7%), followed by 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%) and 0-0 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Napoli?
The probability that both FC Porto and Napoli score is 48%. FC Porto have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Napoli 23%.
How many goals should we expect in FC Porto vs Napoli?
The model expects 2.44 goals (1.46 for FC Porto, 0.98 for Napoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is FC Porto vs Napoli played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto.
What form are FC Porto and Napoli in?
FC Porto: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Napoli: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 10 conceded).
What was the FC Porto vs Napoli result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: FC Porto 4-1 Napoli. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for FC Porto was the model's favourite outcome (49%). The model considered this score unlikely (1.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
How is the FC Porto vs Napoli prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.46 for FC Porto, 0.98 for Napoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All FC Porto predictions
- All Napoli predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology