UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Manchester United vs AS Roma prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Manchester United take on AS Roma on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), a UEFA Champions League fixture. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Nothing is settled in advance: the AI gives Manchester United 44%, AS Roma 33% and the draw 23%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.0%), ahead of 2-1 (8.9%) and 1-2 (7.5%).
Manchester United have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with AS Roma. On average Manchester United score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; AS Roma score 2.20 and concede 0.80. In the table, Manchester United sit 4th with 3 points from 1 games, AS Roma 17th with 1 points from 1. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Manchester United have averaged 1.10 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.46 for AS Roma.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 3-2 Manchester United (May 6, 2021). Manchester United out or doubtful: A. Diallo, T. Heaton, B. Sesko, M. Ugarte and M. de Ligt. AS Roma: M. Bah. In double chance terms, "Manchester United or draw" stands at 67%, "AS Roma or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Manchester United to edge AS Roma (44% probability). In the table, Manchester United (4th, 3 pts) host AS Roma (17th, 1 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 64%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester United – AS Roma. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester United 1-1 AS Roma | 10.0% |
| Manchester United 2-1 AS Roma | 8.9% |
| Manchester United 1-2 AS Roma | 7.5% |
| Manchester United 2-2 AS Roma | 6.7% |
| Manchester United 1-0 AS Roma | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.30 goals in total (1.79 for Manchester United, 1.51 for AS Roma): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. Manchester United keep a clean sheet in 22% of scenarios, AS Roma in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester United expected goals | 1.79 |
| AS Roma expected goals | 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 22% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fulham · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Brighton · EFL Cup | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester City · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sabah FA · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Everton · Premier League | 2-2 | D |
AS Roma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| AS Roma | 17 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2021 | AS Roma 3-2 Manchester United | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 29, 2021 | Manchester United 6-2 AS Roma | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Manchester United
- A. Diallo (out)
- T. Heaton (out)
- B. Sesko (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
- M. de Ligt (out)
AS Roma
- M. Bah (out)
Most regular starters
Manchester United
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Y. Tielemans5/5
- B. Mbeumo4/5
- K. Mainoo4/5
- M. Rashford4/5
- S. Lammens4/5
- H. Maguire3/5
- B. Fernandes2/5
- B. Šeško2/5
- Bruno Fernandes2/5
- D. Dalot2/5
- Diogo Dalot2/5
AS Roma
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Cristante4/5
- D. Malen4/5
- G. Mancini4/5
- M. Svilar4/5
- P. Dybala4/5
- E. Lulli3/5
- M. Hermoso3/5
- E. Ndicka2/5
- M. Kone2/5
- M. Soule2/5
- Wesley2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester United vs AS Roma prediction?
Our AI gives Manchester United a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and AS Roma 33%. Manchester United are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester United vs AS Roma?
1-1 (10.0%), followed by 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%), 2-2 (6.7%) and 1-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs AS Roma?
The probability that both Manchester United and AS Roma score is 65%. Manchester United have a 22% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AS Roma 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester United vs AS Roma?
The model expects 3.30 goals (1.79 for Manchester United, 1.51 for AS Roma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Manchester United vs AS Roma played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester.
What form are Manchester United and AS Roma in?
Manchester United: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). AS Roma: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and AS Roma?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 3-2 Manchester United (May 6, 2021).
How is the Manchester United vs AS Roma prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.79 for Manchester United, 1.51 for AS Roma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester United predictions
- All AS Roma predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology