UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Manchester United vs AS Roma: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Manchester United 3-2 AS Roma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester United was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
Match analysis
Manchester United vs AS Roma was played on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Before kick-off, our model gave Manchester United a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and AS Roma 32%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.5%), ahead of 2-1 (9.0%) and 1-2 (7.6%).
Manchester United have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 12. AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 18 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with AS Roma. On average Manchester United score 0.40 and concede 2.40 goals per game; AS Roma score 3.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Manchester United sit 21st with 3 points from 3 games, AS Roma 15th with 4 points from 3. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Manchester United have averaged 1.06 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.44 for AS Roma.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 3-2 Manchester United (May 6, 2021). Manchester United out or doubtful: P. Dorgu, M. Rashford, B. Sesko, L. Shaw and M. Ugarte. AS Roma: P. Dybala, M. Kone, L. Pellegrini and M. Svilar. In double chance terms, "Manchester United or draw" stands at 68%, "AS Roma or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Manchester United to edge AS Roma (44% probability). In the table, Manchester United (21st, 3 pts) host AS Roma (15th, 4 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 61%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Manchester United – AS Roma. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 41% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Manchester United 1-1 AS Roma | 10.5% |
| Manchester United 2-1 AS Roma | 9.0% |
| Manchester United 1-2 AS Roma | 7.6% |
| Manchester United 1-0 AS Roma | 7.3% |
| Manchester United 2-2 AS Roma | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.16 goals in total (1.72 for Manchester United, 1.44 for AS Roma): over 2.5 goals has a 61% probability and both teams to score 63%. Everything points to an open game. Manchester United keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, AS Roma in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Manchester United expected goals | 1.72 |
| AS Roma expected goals | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 24% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Manchester United
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea · Premier League | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth · Premier League | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Leeds · Premier League | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
AS Roma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 5-2 | W |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 3-3 | D |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Genoa · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 21 | 3 | 3 |
| AS Roma | 15 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2021 | AS Roma 3-2 Manchester United | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 29, 2021 | Manchester United 6-2 AS Roma | UEFA Europa League |
Out and doubtful
Manchester United
- P. Dorgu (out)
- M. Rashford (out)
- B. Sesko (out)
- L. Shaw (out)
- M. Ugarte (out)
AS Roma
- P. Dybala (out)
- M. Kone (out)
- L. Pellegrini (out)
- M. Svilar (out)
Most regular starters
Manchester United
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Andrey Santos5/5
- B. Mbeumo4/5
- S. Lammens4/5
- C. Baleba3/5
- Diogo Dalot3/5
- H. Maguire3/5
- L. Yoro3/5
- Y. Tielemans3/5
- A. Diallo2/5
- B. Fernandes2/5
- Bruno Fernandes2/5
AS Roma
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Gollini5/5
- E. Ndicka4/5
- N. Pisilli4/5
- B. Cristante3/5
- D. Malen3/5
- M. de Roon3/5
- N. Molina3/5
- D. Ghilardi2/5
- D. Rensch2/5
- E. Lulli2/5
- G. Mancini2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 Sporting CPNov 3, 2026
- Galatasaray 2-0 VfB StuttgartNov 3, 2026
- Barcelona 3-0 Aston VillaNov 3, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 0-2 Bayern MünchenNov 3, 2026
- Lask Linz 4-0 Slovan BratislavaNov 3, 2026
- Bodo/Glimt 0-0 LilleNov 3, 2026
- Villarreal 0-6 Paris Saint GermainNov 3, 2026
- Feyenoord 0-3 InterNov 3, 2026
- AEK Athens FC 2-3 Real MadridNov 4, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 3-2 LiverpoolNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Manchester United vs AS Roma prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Manchester United a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and AS Roma 32%. Manchester United are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Manchester United vs AS Roma?
1-1 (10.5%), followed by 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%), 1-0 (7.3%) and 2-2 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs AS Roma?
The probability that both Manchester United and AS Roma score is 63%. Manchester United have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AS Roma 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Manchester United vs AS Roma?
The model expects 3.16 goals (1.72 for Manchester United, 1.44 for AS Roma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 39%.
When and where is Manchester United vs AS Roma played?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester.
What form are Manchester United and AS Roma in?
Manchester United: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 12 conceded). AS Roma: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (18 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and AS Roma?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Manchester United, 1 for AS Roma and 0 draws. The most recent ended AS Roma 3-2 Manchester United (May 6, 2021).
What was the Manchester United vs AS Roma result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Manchester United 3-2 AS Roma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester United was the model's favourite outcome (44%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (63%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): correct.
How is the Manchester United vs AS Roma prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.72 for Manchester United, 1.44 for AS Roma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Manchester United predictions
- All AS Roma predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology