UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Champions League: RB Leipzig vs Manchester City kicks off on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time). Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. With a 75% win probability, Manchester City go in as strong favourites against RB Leipzig (12%), with the draw rated at 13%. The most likely correct score is 1-3 (7.0%), ahead of 1-4 (6.3%) and 1-2 (5.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Manchester City. On average RB Leipzig score 2.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Manchester City score 2.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, RB Leipzig sit 32nd with 0 points from 1 games, Manchester City 8th with 3 points from 1. 24 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, RB Leipzig have averaged 2.63 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.09 for Manchester City.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and Manchester City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. RB Leipzig out or doubtful: C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo and R. Reitz. Manchester City: P. Foden (suspended). In double chance terms, "RB Leipzig or draw" stands at 25%, "Manchester City or draw" at 88% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Our model backs Manchester City to edge RB Leipzig (75% probability). In the table, RB Leipzig (32nd, 0 pts) host Manchester City (8th, 3 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 88%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as RB Leipzig – Manchester City. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 29% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig 1-3 Manchester City | 7.0% |
| RB Leipzig 1-4 Manchester City | 6.3% |
| RB Leipzig 1-2 Manchester City | 5.9% |
| RB Leipzig 2-3 Manchester City | 5.4% |
| RB Leipzig 2-4 Manchester City | 4.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 5.11 goals in total (1.54 for RB Leipzig, 3.57 for Manchester City): over 2.5 goals has a 88% probability and both teams to score 76%. Everything points to an open game. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 3% of scenarios, Manchester City in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 1.54 |
| Manchester City expected goals | 3.57 |
| Both teams to score | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 75% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 3% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hamburger SV · Bundesliga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Como · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Werder Bremen · Bundesliga | 1-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga | 3-0 | W |
Manchester City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sunderland · Premier League | 5-3 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Norwich · EFL Cup | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Manchester United · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | FC Porto · UEFA Champions League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Coventry · Premier League | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| Manchester City | 8 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between RB Leipzig and Manchester City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
RB Leipzig
- C. Baumgartner (out)
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- R. Reitz (out)
Manchester City
- P. Foden (suspended)
Most regular starters
RB Leipzig
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Nusa5/5
- D. Raum5/5
- M. Vandevoordt5/5
- E. Banzuzi4/5
- N. El Aynaoui4/5
- R. Baku4/5
- B. Gruda3/5
- C. Lukeba3/5
- C. Nkunku3/5
- N. Seiwald3/5
- W. Orban3/5
Manchester City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Cherki5/5
- A. Semenyo4/5
- E. Haaland4/5
- G. Donnarumma4/5
- J. Gvardiol4/5
- E. Anderson3/5
- E. Fernandez3/5
- M. Guehi3/5
- R. Dias3/5
- A. Bouaddi2/5
- A. Khusanov2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction?
Our AI gives RB Leipzig a 12% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Manchester City 75%. Manchester City are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
1-3 (7.0%), followed by 1-4 (6.3%), 1-2 (5.9%), 2-3 (5.4%) and 2-4 (4.8%).
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
The probability that both RB Leipzig and Manchester City score is 76%. RB Leipzig have a 3% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester City 21%.
How many goals should we expect in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
The model expects 5.11 goals (1.54 for RB Leipzig, 3.57 for Manchester City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 88%, over 3.5 goals 75%.
When and where is RB Leipzig vs Manchester City played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.
What form are RB Leipzig and Manchester City in?
RB Leipzig: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded). Manchester City: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 3 conceded).
How is the RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for RB Leipzig, 3.57 for Manchester City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- All Manchester City predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology