UEFA Champions League· Kick-off : Wednesday, November 4, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: RB Leipzig 2-3 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
Match analysis
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City was played on Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (UEFA Champions League). Venue: Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. Before kick-off, our model gave RB Leipzig a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Manchester City 62%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.9%), ahead of 1-1 (9.1%) and 0-2 (9.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, RB Leipzig have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Manchester City have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average RB Leipzig score 2.00 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Manchester City score 2.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, RB Leipzig sit 28th with 3 points from 3 games, Manchester City 12th with 6 points from 3. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, RB Leipzig have averaged 2.17 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.08 for Manchester City.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for RB Leipzig, 3 for Manchester City and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester City 3-2 RB Leipzig (Nov 28, 2023). RB Leipzig out or doubtful: M. Finkgrafe, M. Guiu, A. Ouedraogo and L. Zingerle. Manchester City: A. Semenyo. In double chance terms, "RB Leipzig or draw" stands at 38%, "Manchester City or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 80%.
In short : Our model backs Manchester City to edge RB Leipzig (62% probability). In the table, RB Leipzig (28th, 3 pts) host Manchester City (12th, 6 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 63%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as RB Leipzig – Manchester City. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 44% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig 1-2 Manchester City | 9.9% |
| RB Leipzig 1-1 Manchester City | 9.1% |
| RB Leipzig 0-2 Manchester City | 9.1% |
| RB Leipzig 0-1 Manchester City | 8.5% |
| RB Leipzig 1-3 Manchester City | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.24 goals in total (1.08 for RB Leipzig, 2.16 for Manchester City): over 2.5 goals has a 63% probability and both teams to score 58%. Everything points to an open game. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 12% of scenarios, Manchester City in 34%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| RB Leipzig expected goals | 1.08 |
| Manchester City expected goals | 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 12% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 34% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
RB Leipzig
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Rot-Weiß Essen · DFB-Pokal | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | SV Elversberg · Bundesliga | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bayern München · Bundesliga | 1-6 | L |
Manchester City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Brighton · Premier League | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brighton · EFL Cup | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa · Premier League | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 20, 2026 | AEK Athens FC · UEFA Champions League | 5-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Ipswich · Premier League | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 28 | 3 | 3 |
| Manchester City | 12 | 6 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023 | Manchester City 3-2 RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 4, 2023 | RB Leipzig 1-3 Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Manchester City 7-0 RB Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 22, 2023 | RB Leipzig 1-1 Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
| Dec 7, 2021 | RB Leipzig 2-1 Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
Out and doubtful
RB Leipzig
- M. Finkgrafe (out)
- M. Guiu (out)
- A. Ouedraogo (out)
- L. Zingerle (out)
Manchester City
- A. Semenyo (out)
Most regular starters
RB Leipzig
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Lukeba4/5
- D. Raum4/5
- A. Nusa3/5
- B. Gruda3/5
- E. Banzuzi3/5
- M. Vandevoordt3/5
- N. El Aynaoui3/5
- R. Reitz3/5
- Rômulo3/5
- W. Orbán3/5
- C. Nkunku2/5
Manchester City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bouaddi3/5
- G. Donnarumma3/5
- P. Foden3/5
- Rúben Dias3/5
- A. Khusanov2/5
- Allan2/5
- E. Anderson2/5
- E. Fernández2/5
- E. Haaland2/5
- F. Samba2/5
- I. Ndiaye2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Barcelona 3-0 Aston VillaNov 3, 2026
- Manchester United 3-2 AS RomaNov 3, 2026
- AEK Athens FC 2-3 Real MadridNov 4, 2026
- Fenerbahçe 3-2 LiverpoolNov 4, 2026
- Viking 4-1 Sabah FANov 4, 2026
- PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Club Brugge KVNov 4, 2026
- FC Porto 4-1 NapoliNov 4, 2026
- Lens 1-9 ComoNov 4, 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Real BetisNov 4, 2026
- Slavia Praha 1-2 ArsenalNov 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave RB Leipzig a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Manchester City 62%. Manchester City are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
1-2 (9.9%), followed by 1-1 (9.1%), 0-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%) and 1-3 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
The probability that both RB Leipzig and Manchester City score is 58%. RB Leipzig have a 12% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Manchester City 34%.
How many goals should we expect in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
The model expects 3.24 goals (1.08 for RB Leipzig, 2.16 for Manchester City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 63%, over 3.5 goals 41%.
When and where is RB Leipzig vs Manchester City played?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), UEFA Champions League. Venue: Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig.
What form are RB Leipzig and Manchester City in?
RB Leipzig: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 11 conceded). Manchester City: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Manchester City?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for RB Leipzig, 3 for Manchester City and 1 draw. The most recent ended Manchester City 3-2 RB Leipzig (Nov 28, 2023).
What was the RB Leipzig vs Manchester City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: RB Leipzig 2-3 Manchester City. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Manchester City was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (58%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (63%): correct.
How is the RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.08 for RB Leipzig, 2.16 for Manchester City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All RB Leipzig predictions
- All Manchester City predictions
- UEFA Champions League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology