Jupiler Pro League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 18:15 (UK time)
KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 18:15 (UK time). Venue: Achter de Kazerne, Mechelen. With a 86% win probability, St. Truiden go in as strong favourites against KV Mechelen (6%), with the draw rated at 8%. The most likely correct score is 1-3 (7.5%), ahead of 0-3 (7.2%) and 1-4 (7.2%).
KV Mechelen have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, St. Truiden have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with St. Truiden. On average KV Mechelen score 0.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; St. Truiden score 2.00 and concede 2.00. In the table, KV Mechelen sit 18th with 3 points from 7 games, St. Truiden 11th with 8 points from 7. 7 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, KV Mechelen have averaged 1.17 xG (expected goals) per match, against 3.38 for St. Truiden.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for KV Mechelen, 4 for St. Truiden and 0 draws. The most recent ended St. Truiden 3-0 KV Mechelen (May 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "KV Mechelen or draw" stands at 14%, "St. Truiden or draw" at 94% and "no draw" at 92%.
In short : St. Truiden are tipped by our AI model in this KV Mechelen v St. Truiden (86%). In the table, KV Mechelen (18th, 3 pts) host St. Truiden (11th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as KV Mechelen – St. Truiden. 1-3 is the single most likely scoreline (7.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 35% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| KV Mechelen 1-3 St. Truiden | 7.5% |
| KV Mechelen 0-3 St. Truiden | 7.2% |
| KV Mechelen 1-4 St. Truiden | 7.2% |
| KV Mechelen 0-4 St. Truiden | 7.0% |
| KV Mechelen 1-2 St. Truiden | 5.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.87 goals in total (1.03 for KV Mechelen, 3.84 for St. Truiden): over 2.5 goals has a 86% probability and both teams to score 63%. Everything points to an open game. KV Mechelen keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, St. Truiden in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| KV Mechelen expected goals | 1.03 |
| St. Truiden expected goals | 3.84 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 72% |
| KV Mechelen clean sheet | 2% |
| St. Truiden clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
KV Mechelen
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | KVC Westerlo · Jupiler Pro League | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière · Jupiler Pro League | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League | 0-2 | L |
St. Truiden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | SK Beveren · Jupiler Pro League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière · Jupiler Pro League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League | 0-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia · UEFA Europa League | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 18 | 3 | 7 |
| St. Truiden | 11 | 8 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | St. Truiden 3-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | KV Mechelen 1-4 St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | St. Truiden 1-0 KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | KV Mechelen 1-3 St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
Out and doubtful
KV Mechelen
No absences reported.
St. Truiden
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
KV Mechelen
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Praet5/5
- F. Hammar5/5
- J. Marsa5/5
- L. Marijnissen5/5
- M. van Brederode5/5
- N. Miras5/5
- T. Koudou5/5
- C. Van Meirvenne4/5
- M. Eerdhuijzen4/5
- B. Boersma2/5
- K. Vanrafelghem2/5
St. Truiden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Sissako5/5
- I. Sebaoui5/5
- L. Kokubo5/5
- R. Vanwesemael5/5
- V. Musliu5/5
- R. Araki4/5
- R. Merlen4/5
- A. Muja3/5
- S. Taniguchi3/5
- T. Hata3/5
- J. Pupe2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- SK Beveren – Lommel UnitedOct 9, 2026
- Cercle Brugge – AnderlechtOct 10, 2026
- RAAL La Louvière – Club Brugge KVOct 10, 2026
- Zulte Waregem – GentOct 10, 2026
- Genk – KortrijkOct 10, 2026
- Standard Liege – CharleroiOct 11, 2026
- Union St. Gilloise – OH LeuvenOct 11, 2026
- KVC Westerlo – AntwerpOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden prediction?
Our AI gives KV Mechelen a 6% chance of winning, the draw 8% and St. Truiden 86%. St. Truiden are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
1-3 (7.5%), followed by 0-3 (7.2%), 1-4 (7.2%), 0-4 (7.0%) and 1-2 (5.8%).
Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
The probability that both KV Mechelen and St. Truiden score is 63%. KV Mechelen have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, St. Truiden 36%.
How many goals should we expect in KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?
The model expects 4.87 goals (1.03 for KV Mechelen, 3.84 for St. Truiden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 96%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 72%.
When and where is KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 18:15 (UK time), Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8. Venue: Achter de Kazerne, Mechelen.
What form are KV Mechelen and St. Truiden in?
KV Mechelen: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 9 conceded). St. Truiden: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between KV Mechelen and St. Truiden?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for KV Mechelen, 4 for St. Truiden and 0 draws. The most recent ended St. Truiden 3-0 KV Mechelen (May 24, 2026).
How is the KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.03 for KV Mechelen, 3.84 for St. Truiden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All KV Mechelen predictions
- All St. Truiden predictions
- Jupiler Pro League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology