Jupiler Pro League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8: Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven kicks off on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels. Our model makes Union St. Gilloise clear favourites: a 93% chance of winning, against 5% for the draw and 2% for OH Leuven. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (11.0%), followed by 4-0 (11.0%) and 5-0 (8.8%).
Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 2. OH Leuven have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 10. Union St. Gilloise therefore arrive in far better shape than OH Leuven. On average Union St. Gilloise score 3.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; OH Leuven score 0.40 and concede 2.00. In the table, Union St. Gilloise sit 1st with 19 points from 7 games, OH Leuven 15th with 4 points from 7. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Union St. Gilloise have averaged 3.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.30 for OH Leuven.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for OH Leuven and 1 draw. The most recent ended OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise (Jan 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Union St. Gilloise or draw" stands at 98%, "OH Leuven or draw" at 7% and "no draw" at 95%.
In short : Union St. Gilloise are tipped by our AI model in this Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven (93%). On recent form, Union St. Gilloise are in good shape (5 wins in 5) while OH Leuven are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Union St. Gilloise – OH Leuven. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise 3-0 OH Leuven | 11.0% |
| Union St. Gilloise 4-0 OH Leuven | 11.0% |
| Union St. Gilloise 5-0 OH Leuven | 8.8% |
| Union St. Gilloise 2-0 OH Leuven | 8.3% |
| Union St. Gilloise 3-1 OH Leuven | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 4.00 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.57 for OH Leuven, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Goals look likely in this one. Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 56% of scenarios, OH Leuven in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise expected goals | 4.00 |
| OH Leuven expected goals | 0.57 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 67% |
| Union St. Gilloise clean sheet | 56% |
| OH Leuven clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Union St. Gilloise
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Plzen · UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charleroi · Jupiler Pro League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League | 3-0 | W |
OH Leuven
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | SK Beveren · Jupiler Pro League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Gent · Jupiler Pro League | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Standard Liege · Jupiler Pro League | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Brugge KV · Jupiler Pro League | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 19 | 7 |
| OH Leuven | 15 | 4 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 5-0 OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League |
Out and doubtful
Union St. Gilloise
No absences reported.
OH Leuven
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Union St. Gilloise
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Zeneli5/5
- H. Koffi5/5
- L. Patris5/5
- M. Biondic5/5
- M. Sylla5/5
- A. Zorgane4/5
- R. Mofokeng4/5
- Guilherme Smith3/5
- K. Mac Allister3/5
- K. Van De Perre3/5
- O. Kricfalusi3/5
OH Leuven
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. van den Heuvel5/5
- N. Dussenne5/5
- O. Gil5/5
- W. George5/5
- B. Verstraete4/5
- E. Pletinckx4/5
- S. Schrijvers4/5
- C. Ikwuemesi3/5
- J. Lawrence3/5
- R. Nyakossi3/5
- W. Balikwisha3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- SK Beveren – Lommel UnitedOct 9, 2026
- Cercle Brugge – AnderlechtOct 10, 2026
- RAAL La Louvière – Club Brugge KVOct 10, 2026
- Zulte Waregem – GentOct 10, 2026
- Genk – KortrijkOct 10, 2026
- Standard Liege – CharleroiOct 11, 2026
- KVC Westerlo – AntwerpOct 11, 2026
- KV Mechelen – St. TruidenOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven prediction?
Our AI gives Union St. Gilloise a 93% chance of winning, the draw 5% and OH Leuven 2%. Union St. Gilloise are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
3-0 (11.0%), followed by 4-0 (11.0%), 5-0 (8.8%), 2-0 (8.3%) and 3-1 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
The probability that both Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven score is 43%. Union St. Gilloise have a 56% chance of keeping a clean sheet, OH Leuven 2%.
How many goals should we expect in Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven?
The model expects 4.57 goals (4.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.57 for OH Leuven). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 67%.
When and where is Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8. Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven in?
Union St. Gilloise: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 2 conceded). OH Leuven: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and OH Leuven?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for OH Leuven and 1 draw. The most recent ended OH Leuven 0-0 Union St. Gilloise (Jan 24, 2026).
How is the Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.57 for OH Leuven) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Union St. Gilloise predictions
- All OH Leuven predictions
- Jupiler Pro League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology