Jupiler Pro League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 11, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Standard Liege vs Charleroi prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8: the Standard Liege vs Charleroi match is scheduled on Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time). Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion. Charleroi start as favourites with a 48% chance of victory; Standard Liege are given 28% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-1 (9.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Standard Liege have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Charleroi have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Standard Liege score 2.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Charleroi score 1.80 and concede 0.80. In the table, Standard Liege sit 7th with 11 points from 7 games, Charleroi 4th with 18 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Standard Liege have averaged 1.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.50 for Charleroi.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Standard Liege, 2 for Charleroi and 0 draws. The most recent ended Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi (May 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Standard Liege or draw" stands at 52%, "Charleroi or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Charleroi are tipped by our AI model in this Standard Liege v Charleroi (48%). On recent form, Standard Liege have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Charleroi are in good shape (4 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Standard Liege – Charleroi. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Standard Liege 1-1 Charleroi | 11.3% |
| Standard Liege 1-2 Charleroi | 9.5% |
| Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi | 9.2% |
| Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi | 7.7% |
| Standard Liege 2-1 Charleroi | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.23 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.68 for Charleroi, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 58%. Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Charleroi in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Standard Liege expected goals | 1.23 |
| Charleroi expected goals | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Standard Liege clean sheet | 19% |
| Charleroi clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Standard Liege
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | KVC Westerlo · Jupiler Pro League | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | OH Leuven · Jupiler Pro League | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 21, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière · Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | KV Mechelen · Jupiler Pro League | 3-3 | D |
Charleroi
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Zulte Waregem · Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Kortrijk · Jupiler Pro League | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | KV Mechelen · Jupiler Pro League | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | 7 | 11 | 7 |
| Charleroi | 4 | 18 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Charleroi 1-2 Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Charleroi 2-0 Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Standard Liege 3-1 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
Out and doubtful
Standard Liege
No absences reported.
Charleroi
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Standard Liege
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Abid5/5
- A. Trouillet5/5
- B. Nguene5/5
- C. Nielsen5/5
- I. Hautekiet5/5
- I. Karamoko5/5
- M. Epolo5/5
- R. Touzghar5/5
- D. Eckert4/5
- G. Mortensen4/5
- M. Fossey4/5
Charleroi
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Boukamir5/5
- J. Romsaas5/5
- K. Van Den Kerkhof5/5
- M. Nzita5/5
- P. Pflucke5/5
- Y. Khalifi5/5
- A. Ousou4/5
- A. Scheidler4/5
- C. Keita4/5
- M. Kone4/5
- A. Bernier3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- SK Beveren – Lommel UnitedOct 9, 2026
- Cercle Brugge – AnderlechtOct 10, 2026
- RAAL La Louvière – Club Brugge KVOct 10, 2026
- Zulte Waregem – GentOct 10, 2026
- Genk – KortrijkOct 10, 2026
- Union St. Gilloise – OH LeuvenOct 11, 2026
- KVC Westerlo – AntwerpOct 11, 2026
- KV Mechelen – St. TruidenOct 11, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Standard Liege vs Charleroi prediction?
Our AI gives Standard Liege a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Charleroi 48%. Charleroi are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
1-1 (11.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.7%) and 2-1 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
The probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi score is 58%. Standard Liege have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Charleroi 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
The model expects 2.91 goals (1.23 for Standard Liege, 1.68 for Charleroi). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi played?
Sunday, October 11, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Jupiler Pro League, matchday 8. Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded). Charleroi: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Standard Liege, 2 for Charleroi and 0 draws. The most recent ended Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi (May 23, 2026).
How is the Standard Liege vs Charleroi prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.23 for Standard Liege, 1.68 for Charleroi) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Standard Liege predictions
- All Charleroi predictions
- Jupiler Pro League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology