La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 13:00 (UK time)
Malaga vs Racing Santander: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Malaga 1-2 Racing Santander. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Racing Santander was the model's favourite outcome (45%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.2%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
Match analysis
Malaga vs Racing Santander was played on Saturday, November 7, 2026 (La Liga, matchday 12). Venue: La Rosaleda, Malaga. Before kick-off, our model gave Malaga a 26% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Racing Santander 45%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (15.0%), ahead of 1-1 (13.0%) and 0-0 (11.9%).
Malaga have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 8 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Racing Santander have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Malaga score 1.60 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Racing Santander score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Malaga sit 20th with 5 points from 11 games, Racing Santander 16th with 11 points from 11. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Malaga have averaged 0.90 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.21 for Racing Santander.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Malaga, 3 for Racing Santander and 2 draws. The most recent ended Malaga 1-1 Racing Santander (May 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Malaga or draw" stands at 55%, "Racing Santander or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Racing Santander are tipped by our AI model in this Malaga v Racing Santander (45%). On recent form, Malaga have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Racing Santander have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Malaga – Racing Santander. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Malaga 0-1 Racing Santander | 15.0% |
| Malaga 1-1 Racing Santander | 13.0% |
| Malaga 0-0 Racing Santander | 11.9% |
| Malaga 1-0 Racing Santander | 10.3% |
| Malaga 0-2 Racing Santander | 9.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.13 goals in total (0.87 for Malaga, 1.26 for Racing Santander): over 2.5 goals has a 36% probability and both teams to score 42%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Malaga keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Racing Santander in 42%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Malaga expected goals | 0.87 |
| Racing Santander expected goals | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Malaga clean sheet | 28% |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 42% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Malaga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Alcazar · Copa del Rey | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Alaves · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
Racing Santander
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Real Madrid · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Ribadesella CF · Copa del Rey | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Espanyol · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 20 | 5 | 11 |
| Racing Santander | 16 | 11 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Malaga 1-1 Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Racing Santander 3-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Racing Santander 2-1 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Malaga 0-0 Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Malaga 0-1 Racing Santander | Segunda División |
Out and doubtful
Malaga
No absences reported.
Racing Santander
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Malaga
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Rafita4/5
- A. Herrero3/5
- A. Recio3/5
- C. Dotor3/5
- D. Larrubia3/5
- F. Calero3/5
- A. Nino2/5
- C. Puga2/5
- Chupe2/5
- D. Lorenzo2/5
- I. Merino2/5
Racing Santander
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Belocian4/5
- M. Prati4/5
- A. Mantilla3/5
- I. Martin3/5
- I. Vicente3/5
- J. Agirrezabala3/5
- J. Salinas3/5
- P. Ramon3/5
- S. Canales3/5
- Y. Zabiri3/5
- A. Almeida2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sevilla 0-0 AlavesNov 6, 2026
- Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaNov 7, 2026
- Osasuna 1-1 Athletic ClubNov 7, 2026
- Valencia 0-3 Real MadridNov 7, 2026
- Elche 0-2 Real BetisNov 8, 2026
- Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo VallecanoNov 8, 2026
- Villarreal 2-0 GetafeNov 8, 2026
- Celta Vigo 0-0 LevanteNov 8, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 1-2 BarcelonaNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Malaga vs Racing Santander prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Malaga a 26% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Racing Santander 45%. Racing Santander are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Malaga vs Racing Santander?
0-1 (15.0%), followed by 1-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.3%) and 0-2 (9.4%).
Will both teams score in Malaga vs Racing Santander?
The probability that both Malaga and Racing Santander score is 42%. Malaga have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Racing Santander 42%.
How many goals should we expect in Malaga vs Racing Santander?
The model expects 2.13 goals (0.87 for Malaga, 1.26 for Racing Santander). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Malaga vs Racing Santander played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 13:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 12. Venue: La Rosaleda, Malaga.
What form are Malaga and Racing Santander in?
Malaga: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 9 conceded). Racing Santander: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Malaga and Racing Santander?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Malaga, 3 for Racing Santander and 2 draws. The most recent ended Malaga 1-1 Racing Santander (May 24, 2026).
What was the Malaga vs Racing Santander result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Malaga 1-2 Racing Santander. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Racing Santander was the model's favourite outcome (45%). The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (8.2%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): missed.
How is the Malaga vs Racing Santander prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.87 for Malaga, 1.26 for Racing Santander) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Malaga predictions
- All Racing Santander predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology