La Liga· Kick-off : Sunday, November 8, 2026, 15:15 (UK time)
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Real Sociedad at 68%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.6%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): missed.
Match analysis
Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano met on Sunday, November 8, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 12 fixture. Venue: Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian. Before kick-off, our model gave Real Sociedad a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Rayo Vallecano 15%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (8.9%), followed by 3-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Real Sociedad have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Real Sociedad score 3.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Rayo Vallecano score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Real Sociedad sit 5th with 19 points from 11 games, Rayo Vallecano 14th with 12 points from 10. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Real Sociedad have averaged 1.94 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.64 for Rayo Vallecano.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Real Sociedad, 2 for Rayo Vallecano and 2 draws. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad (Apr 26, 2026). Real Sociedad out or doubtful: A. Odriozola, L. Beitia (doubtful) and A. Zakharyan (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Real Sociedad or draw" stands at 85%, "Rayo Vallecano or draw" at 32% and "no draw" at 83%.
In short : Real Sociedad are favourites for this Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano, with a 68% win probability from our model. On recent form, Real Sociedad have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Real Sociedad will be without A. Odriozola and L. Beitia.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Real Sociedad – Rayo Vallecano. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | 8.9% |
| Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | 7.9% |
| Real Sociedad 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | 7.5% |
| Real Sociedad 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | 6.7% |
| Real Sociedad 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.66 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.20 for Rayo Vallecano, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 74% and "both teams to score" at 65%. Goals look likely in this one. Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Rayo Vallecano in 7%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad expected goals | 2.66 |
| Rayo Vallecano expected goals | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | 65% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 30% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 7% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Real Sociedad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Lyon · UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lillestrom · UEFA Europa League | 6-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Malaga · La Liga | 5-2 | W |
Rayo Vallecano
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Celta Vigo · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva · Copa del Rey | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna · La Liga | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 5 | 19 | 11 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 14 | 12 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Real Sociedad
- A. Odriozola (out)
- L. Beitia (doubtful)
- A. Zakharyan (doubtful)
Rayo Vallecano
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Real Sociedad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Sarr5/5
- Gonçalo Guedes3/5
- Jon Gorrotxategi3/5
- Mikel Oyarzabal3/5
- Sergio Gómez3/5
- A. Remiro2/5
- Barrenetxea2/5
- Carlos Soler2/5
- H. Fort2/5
- J. Aramburu2/5
- J. Gorrotxategi2/5
Rayo Vallecano
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Audero4/5
- F. Lejeune4/5
- A. Garcia3/5
- A. Pedrosa3/5
- J. de Frutos3/5
- M. Sadick3/5
- P. Ciss3/5
- S. Camello3/5
- U. Lopez3/5
- I. Balliu2/5
- O. Valentin2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sevilla 0-0 AlavesNov 6, 2026
- Malaga 1-2 Racing SantanderNov 7, 2026
- Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaNov 7, 2026
- Osasuna 1-1 Athletic ClubNov 7, 2026
- Valencia 0-3 Real MadridNov 7, 2026
- Elche 0-2 Real BetisNov 8, 2026
- Villarreal 2-0 GetafeNov 8, 2026
- Celta Vigo 0-0 LevanteNov 8, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 1-2 BarcelonaNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Real Sociedad a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Rayo Vallecano 15%. Real Sociedad are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
2-1 (8.9%), followed by 3-1 (7.9%), 2-0 (7.5%), 1-1 (6.7%) and 3-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
The probability that both Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano score is 65%. Real Sociedad have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Rayo Vallecano 7%.
How many goals should we expect in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model expects 3.86 goals (2.66 for Real Sociedad, 1.20 for Rayo Vallecano). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 74%, over 3.5 goals 54%.
When and where is Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano played?
Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 15:15 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 12. Venue: Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian.
What form are Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano in?
Real Sociedad: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded). Rayo Vallecano: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Real Sociedad, 2 for Rayo Vallecano and 2 draws. The most recent ended Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad (Apr 26, 2026).
What was the Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Real Sociedad at 68%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.6%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): missed.
How is the Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.66 for Real Sociedad, 1.20 for Rayo Vallecano) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Real Sociedad predictions
- All Rayo Vallecano predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology