La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Athletic Club (43%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): missed.
Match analysis
Osasuna and Athletic Club met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 12 fixture. Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona. Before kick-off, our model gave Osasuna a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Athletic Club 43%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (9.5%), followed by 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Osasuna have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Athletic Club have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Athletic Club therefore arrive in far better shape than Osasuna. On average Osasuna score 2.20 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Athletic Club score 2.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Osasuna sit 15th with 11 points from 11 games, Athletic Club 7th with 15 points from 10. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Osasuna have averaged 1.84 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.60 for Athletic Club.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Osasuna, 2 for Athletic Club and 2 draws. The most recent ended Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna (Apr 21, 2026). Osasuna out or doubtful: R. Del Castillo, J. Herrando and A. Oroz. In double chance terms, "Osasuna or draw" stands at 57%, "Athletic Club or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Athletic Club to edge Osasuna (43% probability). On recent form, Osasuna have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Athletic Club have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 67%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Osasuna – Athletic Club. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club | 9.5% |
| Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Club | 8.6% |
| Osasuna 2-1 Athletic Club | 7.7% |
| Osasuna 2-2 Athletic Club | 7.0% |
| Osasuna 0-1 Athletic Club | 5.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.62 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.82 for Athletic Club, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 67% and "both teams to score" at 67%. Goals look likely in this one. Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Athletic Club in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Osasuna expected goals | 1.62 |
| Athletic Club expected goals | 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 16% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Osasuna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Atletico Calatayud · Copa del Rey | 6-0 | W |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Betis · La Liga | 2-5 | L |
Athletic Club
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Prat · Copa del Rey | 6-1 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Getafe · La Liga | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Levante · La Liga | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Valencia · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 15 | 11 | 11 |
| Athletic Club | 7 | 15 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Athletic Club 2-3 Osasuna | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Osasuna
- R. Del Castillo (out)
- J. Herrando (out)
- A. Oroz (out)
Athletic Club
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Osasuna
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Budimir4/5
- R. Garcia4/5
- F. Boyomo3/5
- V. Rosier3/5
- A. Bretones2/5
- A. Catena2/5
- A. Fernandez2/5
- Abel Bretones2/5
- Catena2/5
- I. Arguibide2/5
- I. Munoz2/5
Athletic Club
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Berenguer3/5
- A. Paredes3/5
- H. Rincon3/5
- I. Ruiz de Galarreta3/5
- I. Williams3/5
- J. Louis-Jean3/5
- M. Sannadi3/5
- R. Navarro3/5
- U. Simon3/5
- A. Laporte2/5
- M. Jauregizar2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sevilla 0-0 AlavesNov 6, 2026
- Malaga 1-2 Racing SantanderNov 7, 2026
- Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaNov 7, 2026
- Valencia 0-3 Real MadridNov 7, 2026
- Elche 0-2 Real BetisNov 8, 2026
- Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo VallecanoNov 8, 2026
- Villarreal 2-0 GetafeNov 8, 2026
- Celta Vigo 0-0 LevanteNov 8, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 1-2 BarcelonaNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Osasuna vs Athletic Club prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Osasuna a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Athletic Club 43%. Athletic Club are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
1-1 (9.5%), followed by 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.0%) and 0-1 (5.8%).
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
The probability that both Osasuna and Athletic Club score is 67%. Osasuna have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Athletic Club 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
The model expects 3.44 goals (1.62 for Osasuna, 1.82 for Athletic Club). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 67%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Osasuna vs Athletic Club played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 12. Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona.
What form are Osasuna and Athletic Club in?
Osasuna: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 9 conceded). Athletic Club: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Osasuna, 2 for Athletic Club and 2 draws. The most recent ended Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna (Apr 21, 2026).
What was the Osasuna vs Athletic Club result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Athletic Club (43%), while a draw was rated at only 22%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.5%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (67%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (67%): missed.
How is the Osasuna vs Athletic Club prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Osasuna, 1.82 for Athletic Club) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Osasuna predictions
- All Athletic Club predictions
- La Liga predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology