La Liga· Kick-off : Saturday, November 7, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Valencia vs Real Madrid: 0-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Real Madrid at 90%. The exact score 0-3 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
Match analysis
Valencia and Real Madrid met on Saturday, November 7, 2026, a La Liga, matchday 12 fixture. Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. Before kick-off, our model gave Valencia a 3% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Real Madrid 90%. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (8.7%), followed by 0-4 (8.7%) and 1-3 (7.0%).
Valencia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 5. Real Madrid therefore arrive in far better shape than Valencia. On average Valencia score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Real Madrid score 3.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Valencia sit 19th with 9 points from 11 games, Real Madrid 3rd with 27 points from 11. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Valencia have averaged 1.35 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.83 for Real Madrid.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Valencia, 3 for Real Madrid and 1 draw. The most recent ended Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid (Feb 8, 2026). In double chance terms, "Valencia or draw" stands at 10%, "Real Madrid or draw" at 97% and "no draw" at 93%.
In short : Real Madrid are favourites for this Valencia v Real Madrid, with a 90% win probability from our model. In the table, Valencia (19th, 9 pts) host Real Madrid (3rd, 27 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-3.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Valencia – Real Madrid. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (8.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 38% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid | 8.7% |
| Valencia 0-4 Real Madrid | 8.7% |
| Valencia 1-3 Real Madrid | 7.0% |
| Valencia 1-4 Real Madrid | 7.0% |
| Valencia 0-5 Real Madrid | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.81 expected goals for Valencia and 4.00 for Real Madrid, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 86% and "both teams to score" at 54%. Goals look likely in this one. Valencia keep a clean sheet in 2% of scenarios, Real Madrid in 44%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Valencia expected goals | 0.81 |
| Real Madrid expected goals | 4.00 |
| Both teams to score | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 71% |
| Valencia clean sheet | 2% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 44% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Valencia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Elche · La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Villarreal · La Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Athletic Club · La Liga | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad · La Liga | 2-3 | L |
Real Madrid
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | AEK Athens FC · UEFA Champions League | 3-2 | W |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Racing Santander · La Liga | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Barcelona · La Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sevilla · La Liga | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 19 | 9 | 11 |
| Real Madrid | 3 | 27 | 11 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Out and doubtful
Valencia
No absences reported.
Real Madrid
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Valencia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Pepelu5/5
- S. Dimitrievski5/5
- A. Danjuma4/5
- G. Rodriguez4/5
- J. De Haas4/5
- J. Gaya4/5
- J. Guerra4/5
- P. Maffeo4/5
- H. Duro3/5
- C. Tarrega2/5
- D. Raba2/5
Real Madrid
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Bellingham4/5
- Bernardo Silva3/5
- D. Huijsen3/5
- F. Valverde3/5
- Kylian Mbappé3/5
- T. Courtois3/5
- Y. Diomande3/5
- A. Guler2/5
- A. Rüdiger2/5
- A. Tchouameni2/5
- E. Camavinga2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Sevilla 0-0 AlavesNov 6, 2026
- Malaga 1-2 Racing SantanderNov 7, 2026
- Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La CorunaNov 7, 2026
- Osasuna 1-1 Athletic ClubNov 7, 2026
- Elche 0-2 Real BetisNov 8, 2026
- Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo VallecanoNov 8, 2026
- Villarreal 2-0 GetafeNov 8, 2026
- Celta Vigo 0-0 LevanteNov 8, 2026
- Atletico Madrid 1-2 BarcelonaNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Valencia a 3% chance of winning, the draw 7% and Real Madrid 90%. Real Madrid are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
0-3 (8.7%), followed by 0-4 (8.7%), 1-3 (7.0%), 1-4 (7.0%) and 0-5 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The probability that both Valencia and Real Madrid score is 54%. Valencia have a 2% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Real Madrid 44%.
How many goals should we expect in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The model expects 4.81 goals (0.81 for Valencia, 4.00 for Real Madrid). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 86%, over 3.5 goals 71%.
When and where is Valencia vs Real Madrid played?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), La Liga, matchday 12. Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia.
What form are Valencia and Real Madrid in?
Valencia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Real Madrid: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Madrid?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Valencia, 3 for Real Madrid and 1 draw. The most recent ended Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid (Feb 8, 2026).
What was the Valencia vs Real Madrid result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Real Madrid at 90%. The exact score 0-3 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (8.7%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (54%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (86%): correct.
How is the Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.81 for Valencia, 4.00 for Real Madrid) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Valencia predictions
- All Real Madrid predictions
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