Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Friday, October 23, 2026, 21:15 (UK time)
Atletico Grau vs ADT: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atletico Grau 1-1 ADT. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for ADT (45%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.0%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.
Match analysis
Atletico Grau and ADT met on Friday, October 23, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Grau a 26% chance of winning, the draw 29% and ADT 45%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.0%), followed by 1-1 (13.0%) and 0-0 (11.9%).
Atletico Grau have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 11. ADT have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 9. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atletico Grau score 1.40 and concede 2.20 goals per game; ADT score 0.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Atletico Grau sit 11th with 17 points from 12 games, ADT 17th with 6 points from 12. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Atletico Grau have averaged 0.57 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.91 for ADT.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Grau, 1 for ADT and 0 draws. The most recent ended ADT 1-0 Atletico Grau (May 2, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Grau or draw" stands at 55%, "ADT or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Our model backs ADT to edge Atletico Grau (45% probability). In the table, Atletico Grau (11th, 17 pts) host ADT (17th, 6 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Grau – ADT. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Grau 0-1 ADT | 15.0% |
| Atletico Grau 1-1 ADT | 13.0% |
| Atletico Grau 0-0 ADT | 11.9% |
| Atletico Grau 1-0 ADT | 10.3% |
| Atletico Grau 0-2 ADT | 9.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.87 expected goals for Atletico Grau and 1.26 for ADT, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Few goals are expected here. Atletico Grau keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, ADT in 42%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Grau expected goals | 0.87 |
| ADT expected goals | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Atletico Grau clean sheet | 28% |
| ADT clean sheet | 42% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Grau
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-4 | L |
ADT
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · Copa De La Liga | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · Copa De La Liga | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Cienciano · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 11 | 17 | 12 |
| ADT | 17 | 6 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | ADT 1-0 Atletico Grau | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Grau
No absences reported.
ADT
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atletico Grau
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Oncoy4/5
- I. Tapia4/5
- R. Guarderas4/5
- R. Tapia3/5
- A. Fernández2/5
- A. Vásquez2/5
- C. Vásquez2/5
- D. Barreto2/5
- G. Alfaro2/5
- M. Da Luz2/5
- P. Alvarez2/5
ADT
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Benincasa4/5
- A. Ramos3/5
- Aylton Mazzo3/5
- J. Pereyra3/5
- J. Rojas3/5
- Juan David Lucumí Cuero3/5
- Á. Ojeda2/5
- C. Solís2/5
- J. Bauman2/5
- J. Narváez2/5
- L. Pérez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC MelgarOct 23, 2026
- Sport Huancayo 4-1 Alianza AtleticoOct 24, 2026
- Cusco 3-1 Sporting CristalOct 24, 2026
- Universitario – Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 25, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos – CiencianoOct 25, 2026
- UCV Moquegua – Alianza LimaOct 25, 2026
- Sport Boys – FC CajamarcaOct 25, 2026
- Deportivo Garcilaso – Club Deportivo Los ChankasOct 25, 2026
- Juan Pablo II College – Sport HuancayoOct 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Grau vs ADT prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Grau a 26% chance of winning, the draw 29% and ADT 45%. ADT are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Grau vs ADT?
0-1 (15.0%), followed by 1-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.3%) and 0-2 (9.4%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Grau vs ADT?
The probability that both Atletico Grau and ADT score is 42%. Atletico Grau have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, ADT 42%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Grau vs ADT?
The model expects 2.13 goals (0.87 for Atletico Grau, 1.26 for ADT). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Atletico Grau vs ADT played?
Friday, October 23, 2026 at 21:15 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura.
What form are Atletico Grau and ADT in?
Atletico Grau: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded). ADT: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Grau and ADT?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Atletico Grau, 1 for ADT and 0 draws. The most recent ended ADT 1-0 Atletico Grau (May 2, 2026).
What was the Atletico Grau vs ADT result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atletico Grau 1-1 ADT. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for ADT (45%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.0%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.
How is the Atletico Grau vs ADT prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.87 for Atletico Grau, 1.26 for ADT) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Grau predictions
- All ADT predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology