Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Saturday, October 24, 2026, 21:15 (UK time)
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cusco 3-1 Sporting Cristal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sporting Cristal (55%), while victory for Cusco was rated at only 16%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): missed.
Match analysis
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal was played on Saturday, October 24, 2026 (Peruvian Liga 1). Venue: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. Before kick-off, our model gave Cusco a 16% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sporting Cristal 55%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (19.7%), ahead of 0-0 (15.0%) and 0-2 (13.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cusco have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Sporting Cristal. On average Cusco score 1.20 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sporting Cristal score 2.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, Cusco sit 9th with 18 points from 12 games, Sporting Cristal 1st with 25 points from 12. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Cusco have averaged 0.67 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.15 for Sporting Cristal.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cusco, 0 for Sporting Cristal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sporting Cristal 2-2 Cusco (May 3, 2026). In double chance terms, "Cusco or draw" stands at 45%, "Sporting Cristal or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Sporting Cristal are favourites for this Cusco v Sporting Cristal, with a 55% win probability from our model. On recent form, Cusco have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Sporting Cristal are in good shape (5 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cusco – Sporting Cristal. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (19.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cusco 0-1 Sporting Cristal | 19.7% |
| Cusco 0-0 Sporting Cristal | 15.0% |
| Cusco 0-2 Sporting Cristal | 13.0% |
| Cusco 1-1 Sporting Cristal | 11.5% |
| Cusco 1-0 Sporting Cristal | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.90 goals in total (0.58 for Cusco, 1.32 for Sporting Cristal): over 2.5 goals has a 30% probability and both teams to score 32%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Cusco keep a clean sheet in 27% of scenarios, Sporting Cristal in 56%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cusco expected goals | 0.58 |
| Sporting Cristal expected goals | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Cusco clean sheet | 27% |
| Sporting Cristal clean sheet | 56% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cusco
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | UCV Moquegua · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-0 | W |
Sporting Cristal
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 1, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 5-0 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | ADT · Copa De La Liga | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | 9 | 18 | 12 |
| Sporting Cristal | 1 | 25 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sporting Cristal 2-2 Cusco | Peruvian Liga 1 |
Out and doubtful
Cusco
No absences reported.
Sporting Cristal
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cusco
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Callejo4/5
- I. Colman4/5
- J. Zevallos4/5
- R. Lagos4/5
- A. Fuentes3/5
- C. Diez3/5
- C. Gamarra3/5
- N. Silva3/5
- C. Montano2/5
- D. Soto2/5
- J. Manzaneda2/5
Sporting Cristal
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Castro3/5
- R. Lutiger3/5
- A. Álvarez2/5
- Agustín Álvarez2/5
- Cristiano2/5
- Diego Enríquez2/5
- L. Abram2/5
- L. Iberico2/5
- L. Sosa2/5
- Leandro Sosa2/5
- Luis Iberico2/5
Other matches in this competition
- UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC MelgarOct 23, 2026
- Atletico Grau 1-1 ADTOct 23, 2026
- Sport Huancayo 4-1 Alianza AtleticoOct 24, 2026
- Universitario – Juan Pablo II CollegeOct 25, 2026
- Comerciantes Unidos – CiencianoOct 25, 2026
- UCV Moquegua – Alianza LimaOct 25, 2026
- Sport Boys – FC CajamarcaOct 25, 2026
- Deportivo Garcilaso – Club Deportivo Los ChankasOct 25, 2026
- Juan Pablo II College – Sport HuancayoOct 27, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cusco vs Sporting Cristal prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cusco a 16% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sporting Cristal 55%. Sporting Cristal are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
0-1 (19.7%), followed by 0-0 (15.0%), 0-2 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.5%) and 1-0 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
The probability that both Cusco and Sporting Cristal score is 32%. Cusco have a 27% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sporting Cristal 56%.
How many goals should we expect in Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
The model expects 1.90 goals (0.58 for Cusco, 1.32 for Sporting Cristal). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 57%, over 2.5 goals 30%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Cusco vs Sporting Cristal played?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 21:15 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco.
What form are Cusco and Sporting Cristal in?
Cusco: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded). Sporting Cristal: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cusco and Sporting Cristal?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cusco, 0 for Sporting Cristal and 1 draw. The most recent ended Sporting Cristal 2-2 Cusco (May 3, 2026).
What was the Cusco vs Sporting Cristal result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cusco 3-1 Sporting Cristal. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sporting Cristal (55%), while victory for Cusco was rated at only 16%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): missed.
How is the Cusco vs Sporting Cristal prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.58 for Cusco, 1.32 for Sporting Cristal) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cusco predictions
- All Sporting Cristal predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology