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Peruvian Liga 1Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Friday, October 23, 2026, 19:00 (UK time)

UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

UTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca1 – 2FBC MelgarFBC Melgar

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-3

Final score: UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC Melgar. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FBC Melgar at 92%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): correct.

Match analysis

UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar met on Friday, October 23, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca. Before kick-off, our model gave UTC Cajamarca a 2% chance of winning, the draw 6% and FBC Melgar 92%. On the correct score, 0-3 comes out on top (14.1%), followed by 0-4 (12.5%) and 0-2 (11.9%).

UTC Cajamarca have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 10. FBC Melgar are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 5. FBC Melgar therefore arrive in far better shape than UTC Cajamarca. On average UTC Cajamarca score 1.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; FBC Melgar score 2.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, UTC Cajamarca sit 18th with 2 points from 12 games, FBC Melgar 5th with 22 points from 12. 13 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, UTC Cajamarca have averaged 0.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.29 for FBC Melgar.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for UTC Cajamarca, 5 for FBC Melgar and 0 draws. The most recent ended FBC Melgar 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (May 4, 2026). In double chance terms, "UTC Cajamarca or draw" stands at 8%, "FBC Melgar or draw" at 98% and "no draw" at 94%.

In short : FBC Melgar are favourites for this UTC Cajamarca v FBC Melgar, with a 92% win probability from our model. In the table, UTC Cajamarca (18th, 2 pts) host FBC Melgar (5th, 22 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-3.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

2%
UTC Cajamarca (Win)
6%
Draw
92%
FBC Melgar (Win)

Double chance

8%
UTC Cajamarca or draw
98%
FBC Melgar or draw
94%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as UTC Cajamarca – FBC Melgar. 0-3 is the single most likely scoreline (14.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
UTC Cajamarca 0-3 FBC Melgar14.1%
UTC Cajamarca 0-4 FBC Melgar12.5%
UTC Cajamarca 0-2 FBC Melgar11.9%
UTC Cajamarca 0-5 FBC Melgar8.8%
UTC Cajamarca 0-1 FBC Melgar6.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.42 expected goals for UTC Cajamarca and 3.54 for FBC Melgar, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 76% and "both teams to score" at 33%. Goals look likely in this one. UTC Cajamarca keep a clean sheet in 3% of scenarios, FBC Melgar in 66%.

Probability
UTC Cajamarca expected goals0.42
FBC Melgar expected goals3.54
Both teams to score33%
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals56%
UTC Cajamarca clean sheet3%
FBC Melgar clean sheet66%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

UTC Cajamarca

DateOpponentScore
Oct 19, 2026Cienciano · Peruvian Liga 10-1L
Oct 11, 2026Sporting Cristal · Peruvian Liga 10-1L
Sep 20, 2026Sport Huancayo · Peruvian Liga 12-3L
Sep 11, 2026Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 11-2L
Sep 4, 2026Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 12-3L

FBC Melgar

DateOpponentScore
Oct 18, 2026Deportivo Garcilaso · Peruvian Liga 14-2W
Oct 11, 2026Universitario · Peruvian Liga 12-2D
Sep 20, 2026Sport Boys · Peruvian Liga 11-1D
Sep 12, 2026Cusco · Peruvian Liga 11-0W
Sep 7, 2026ADT · Peruvian Liga 13-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
UTC Cajamarca18212
FBC Melgar52212

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 4, 2026FBC Melgar 2-0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
Jul 19, 2025UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC MelgarPrimera División
Feb 8, 2025FBC Melgar 3-0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
Oct 23, 2024FBC Melgar 1-0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
May 12, 2024UTC Cajamarca 2-6 FBC MelgarPrimera División

Out and doubtful

UTC Cajamarca

No absences reported.

FBC Melgar

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

UTC Cajamarca

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Duarte3/5
  • L. Garro3/5
  • M. Lliuya3/5
  • A. Figuera2/5
  • Arquímedes Figuera2/5
  • D. Camacho2/5
  • David Camacho2/5
  • F. Cavagna2/5
  • Francesco Cavagna2/5
  • G. Paredes2/5
  • Gilmar Paredes2/5

FBC Melgar

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Cuesta4/5
  • C. Bordacahar4/5
  • J. Cabezudo4/5
  • J. Escobar4/5
  • K. Minda4/5
  • M. Lazo4/5
  • N. Cabanillas4/5
  • J. Vidales3/5
  • N. Quagliata3/5
  • W. Tandazo3/5
  • L. Gonzalez2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave UTC Cajamarca a 2% chance of winning, the draw 6% and FBC Melgar 92%. FBC Melgar are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

0-3 (14.1%), followed by 0-4 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.9%), 0-5 (8.8%) and 0-1 (6.7%).

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

The probability that both UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar score is 33%. UTC Cajamarca have a 3% chance of keeping a clean sheet, FBC Melgar 66%.

How many goals should we expect in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 3.96 goals (0.42 for UTC Cajamarca, 3.54 for FBC Melgar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 76%, over 3.5 goals 56%.

When and where is UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar played?

Friday, October 23, 2026 at 19:00 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca.

What form are UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar in?

UTC Cajamarca: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 10 conceded). FBC Melgar: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for UTC Cajamarca, 5 for FBC Melgar and 0 draws. The most recent ended FBC Melgar 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (May 4, 2026).

What was the UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC Melgar. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for FBC Melgar at 92%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (5.0%), behind 0-3. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (33%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (76%): correct.

How is the UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.42 for UTC Cajamarca, 3.54 for FBC Melgar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained