Peruvian Liga 1· Kick-off : Monday, November 9, 2026, 01:30 (UK time)
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Universitario 2-2 UCV Moquegua. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Universitario (92%), while a draw was rated at only 6%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.
Match analysis
Universitario and UCV Moquegua met on Monday, November 9, 2026, a Peruvian Liga 1 fixture. Venue: Estadio Monumental U Marathon, Lima. Before kick-off, our model gave Universitario a 92% chance of winning, the draw 6% and UCV Moquegua 2%. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (14.5%), followed by 4-0 (12.7%) and 2-0 (12.4%).
Universitario are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 14 and conceding 6. UCV Moquegua have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 5. Universitario therefore arrive in far better shape than UCV Moquegua. On average Universitario score 2.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; UCV Moquegua score 0.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Universitario sit 3rd with 31 points from 15 games, UCV Moquegua 17th with 11 points from 15. 14 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Universitario have averaged 1.78 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.79 for UCV Moquegua.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Universitario, 0 for UCV Moquegua and 1 draw. The most recent ended UCV Moquegua 0-0 Universitario (May 23, 2026). In double chance terms, "Universitario or draw" stands at 98%, "UCV Moquegua or draw" at 8% and "no draw" at 94%.
In short : Universitario are favourites for this Universitario v UCV Moquegua, with a 92% win probability from our model. In the table, Universitario (3rd, 31 pts) host UCV Moquegua (17th, 11 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Universitario – UCV Moquegua. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 56% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Universitario 3-0 UCV Moquegua | 14.5% |
| Universitario 4-0 UCV Moquegua | 12.7% |
| Universitario 2-0 UCV Moquegua | 12.4% |
| Universitario 5-0 UCV Moquegua | 8.9% |
| Universitario 1-0 UCV Moquegua | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.50 expected goals for Universitario and 0.40 for UCV Moquegua, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 75% and "both teams to score" at 32%. Goals look likely in this one. Universitario keep a clean sheet in 67% of scenarios, UCV Moquegua in 3%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Universitario expected goals | 3.50 |
| UCV Moquegua expected goals | 0.40 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% |
| Universitario clean sheet | 67% |
| UCV Moquegua clean sheet | 3% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Universitario
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Sport Boys · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atletico Grau · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College · Peruvian Liga 1 | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alianza Atletico · Peruvian Liga 1 | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FBC Melgar · Peruvian Liga 1 | 2-2 | D |
UCV Moquegua
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 28, 2026 | ADT · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Alianza Lima · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | FC Cajamarca · Peruvian Liga 1 | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Cienciano · Peruvian Liga 1 | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 3 | 31 | 15 |
| UCV Moquegua | 17 | 11 | 15 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | UCV Moquegua 0-0 Universitario | Primera División |
Out and doubtful
Universitario
No absences reported.
UCV Moquegua
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Universitario
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Polo5/5
- A. Valera5/5
- C. Fara5/5
- C. Inga5/5
- G. Lapadula5/5
- H. Calcaterra5/5
- J. Concha5/5
- W. Riveros5/5
- D. Romero4/5
- A. Santamaria3/5
- A. Santamaría2/5
UCV Moquegua
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Perleche5/5
- C. Grados5/5
- E. Lastre5/5
- J. Lojas5/5
- R. Chipao5/5
- C. Enciso4/5
- Y. Zapata4/5
- C. Mejia3/5
- B. Angulo2/5
- C. Mejía2/5
- J. Collazos2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Universitario 2-2 Sport BoysNov 5, 2026
- Atletico Grau 3-0 CuscoNov 6, 2026
- ADT 1-1 Sporting CristalNov 7, 2026
- FC Cajamarca 2-0 Alianza AtleticoNov 7, 2026
- FBC Melgar 2-1 Juan Pablo II CollegeNov 7, 2026
- Cienciano 1-2 Sport HuancayoNov 8, 2026
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-1 Alianza LimaNov 8, 2026
- Sport Boys 0-0 UTC CajamarcaNov 8, 2026
- Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 Comerciantes UnidosNov 8, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Universitario vs UCV Moquegua prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Universitario a 92% chance of winning, the draw 6% and UCV Moquegua 2%. Universitario are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
3-0 (14.5%), followed by 4-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.4%), 5-0 (8.9%) and 1-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
The probability that both Universitario and UCV Moquegua score is 32%. Universitario have a 67% chance of keeping a clean sheet, UCV Moquegua 3%.
How many goals should we expect in Universitario vs UCV Moquegua?
The model expects 3.90 goals (3.50 for Universitario, 0.40 for UCV Moquegua). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 75%, over 3.5 goals 55%.
When and where is Universitario vs UCV Moquegua played?
Monday, November 9, 2026 at 01:30 (UK time), Peruvian Liga 1. Venue: Estadio Monumental U Marathon, Lima.
What form are Universitario and UCV Moquegua in?
Universitario: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 6 conceded). UCV Moquegua: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Universitario and UCV Moquegua?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Universitario, 0 for UCV Moquegua and 1 draw. The most recent ended UCV Moquegua 0-0 Universitario (May 23, 2026).
What was the Universitario vs UCV Moquegua result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Universitario 2-2 UCV Moquegua. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Universitario (92%), while a draw was rated at only 6%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (75%): correct.
How is the Universitario vs UCV Moquegua prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.50 for Universitario, 0.40 for UCV Moquegua) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Universitario predictions
- All UCV Moquegua predictions
- Peruvian Liga 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology