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Ecuadorian Liga ProEcuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Friday, October 23, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica: 0-0 result and AI prediction review

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle0 – 0Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Independiente del Valle 0-0 Universidad Catolica. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Independiente del Valle (56%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (14.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.

Match analysis

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica met on Friday, October 23, 2026, a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Banco De Guayaquil, Quito. Before kick-off, our model gave Independiente del Valle a 56% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Universidad Catolica 16%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (20.0%), followed by 0-0 (14.8%) and 2-0 (13.5%).

Over their last 5 matches, Independiente del Valle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Universidad Catolica have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Independiente del Valle therefore arrive in far better shape than Universidad Catolica. On average Independiente del Valle score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Universidad Catolica score 1.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Independiente del Valle sit 1st with 77 points from 32 games, Universidad Catolica 4th with 52 points from 33. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Independiente del Valle have averaged 0.95 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.79 for Universidad Catolica.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Independiente del Valle, 1 for Universidad Catolica and 1 draw. The most recent ended Independiente del Valle 2-2 Universidad Catolica (Aug 29, 2026). In double chance terms, "Independiente del Valle or draw" stands at 84%, "Universidad Catolica or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 72%.

In short : Our model backs Independiente del Valle to edge Universidad Catolica (56% probability). On recent form, Independiente del Valle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Universidad Catolica have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

56%
Independiente del Valle (Win)
28%
Draw
16%
Universidad Catolica (Win)

Double chance

84%
Independiente del Valle or draw
44%
Universidad Catolica or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Independiente del Valle – Universidad Catolica. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (20.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Independiente del Valle 1-0 Universidad Catolica20.0%
Independiente del Valle 0-0 Universidad Catolica14.8%
Independiente del Valle 2-0 Universidad Catolica13.5%
Independiente del Valle 1-1 Universidad Catolica11.2%
Independiente del Valle 0-1 Universidad Catolica8.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.35 expected goals for Independiente del Valle and 0.56 for Universidad Catolica, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 30% and "both teams to score" at 32%. Few goals are expected here. Independiente del Valle keep a clean sheet in 57% of scenarios, Universidad Catolica in 26%.

Probability
Independiente del Valle expected goals1.35
Universidad Catolica expected goals0.56
Both teams to score32%
Over 1.5 goals57%
Over 2.5 goals30%
Over 3.5 goals13%
Independiente del Valle clean sheet57%
Universidad Catolica clean sheet26%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Independiente del Valle

DateOpponentScore
Oct 17, 2026Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-1L
Oct 10, 2026Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-1W
Sep 25, 2026Gualaceo SC · Copa Ecuador2-0W
Sep 18, 2026Flamengo · CONMEBOL Libertadores1-1D
Sep 14, 2026Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro3-2W

Universidad Catolica

DateOpponentScore
Oct 18, 2026Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-1D
Oct 11, 2026Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro0-1L
Sep 21, 2026LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro1-2L
Sep 15, 2026Orense SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro2-1W
Sep 10, 2026Astillero FC (Ecu) · Copa Ecuador1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Independiente del Valle17732
Universidad Catolica45233

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 29, 2026Independiente del Valle 2-2 Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro
May 13, 2026Universidad Catolica 0-3 Independiente del ValleSupercopa de Ecuador
May 1, 2026Universidad Catolica 2-3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
Dec 14, 2025Universidad Catolica 0-1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
Nov 8, 2025Independiente del Valle 0-2 Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro

Out and doubtful

Independiente del Valle

No absences reported.

Universidad Catolica

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Independiente del Valle

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Sornoza4/5
  • L. Loor4/5
  • M. Carabajal4/5
  • R. Schunke4/5
  • A. Quintana3/5
  • Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla3/5
  • Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez3/5
  • H. Quintana3/5
  • J. Alcívar3/5
  • M. Perelló3/5
  • C. González2/5

Universidad Catolica

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Lara3/5
  • C. Medina2/5
  • Carlos Medina2/5
  • D. Clavijo2/5
  • E. Mejía2/5
  • Eddy Mejía2/5
  • Emiliano Clavijo2/5
  • Facundo Martinez2/5
  • G. Anangonó2/5
  • J. Cacciabue2/5
  • J. Fajardo2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Independiente del Valle a 56% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Universidad Catolica 16%. Independiente del Valle are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?

1-0 (20.0%), followed by 0-0 (14.8%), 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.2%) and 0-1 (8.3%).

Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?

The probability that both Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica score is 32%. Independiente del Valle have a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Universidad Catolica 26%.

How many goals should we expect in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?

The model expects 1.91 goals (1.35 for Independiente del Valle, 0.56 for Universidad Catolica). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 57%, over 2.5 goals 30%, over 3.5 goals 13%.

When and where is Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica played?

Friday, October 23, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Banco De Guayaquil, Quito.

What form are Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica in?

Independiente del Valle: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Universidad Catolica: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Independiente del Valle, 1 for Universidad Catolica and 1 draw. The most recent ended Independiente del Valle 2-2 Universidad Catolica (Aug 29, 2026).

What was the Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Independiente del Valle 0-0 Universidad Catolica. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Independiente del Valle (56%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (14.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (30%): correct.

How is the Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.35 for Independiente del Valle, 0.56 for Universidad Catolica) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained