Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Monday, October 19, 2026, 21:30 (UK time)
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Mushuc Runa SC (55%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
Match analysis
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC was played on Monday, October 19, 2026 (Ecuadorian Liga Pro). Venue: Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato. Before kick-off, our model gave Mushuc Runa SC a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Orense SC 19%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.4%), ahead of 1-1 (11.9%) and 2-0 (11.7%).
Mushuc Runa SC have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Orense SC have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Mushuc Runa SC score 1.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Orense SC score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Mushuc Runa SC sit 12th with 39 points from 32 games, Orense SC 14th with 34 points from 32. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Mushuc Runa SC have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.92 for Orense SC.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Mushuc Runa SC, 3 for Orense SC and 0 draws. The most recent ended Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Orense SC (Jul 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Mushuc Runa SC or draw" stands at 81%, "Orense SC or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Our model backs Mushuc Runa SC to edge Orense SC (55% probability). In the table, Mushuc Runa SC (12th, 39 pts) host Orense SC (14th, 34 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Mushuc Runa SC – Orense SC. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC 1-0 Orense SC | 15.4% |
| Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SC | 11.9% |
| Mushuc Runa SC 2-0 Orense SC | 11.7% |
| Mushuc Runa SC 0-0 Orense SC | 10.1% |
| Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Orense SC | 9.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.29 goals in total (1.52 for Mushuc Runa SC, 0.77 for Orense SC): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 42%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Mushuc Runa SC keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Orense SC in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC expected goals | 1.52 |
| Orense SC expected goals | 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Mushuc Runa SC clean sheet | 46% |
| Orense SC clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Mushuc Runa SC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Delfin SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | LDU de Quito · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-0 | D |
Orense SC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Manta FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC | 12 | 39 | 32 |
| Orense SC | 14 | 34 | 32 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Orense SC | Liga Pro |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Orense SC 3-2 Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Orense SC 3-1 Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| May 17, 2025 | Mushuc Runa SC 2-5 Orense SC | Liga Pro |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Orense SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
Out and doubtful
Mushuc Runa SC
No absences reported.
Orense SC
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Mushuc Runa SC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Arnaldo Zambrano3/5
- Cristopher Angulo3/5
- Jeremy Cusme3/5
- José Hernández3/5
- Miguel Perea3/5
- Nicolás Dávila3/5
- Rodrigo Formento3/5
- Ronny Biojo3/5
- Tomson Minda3/5
- A. Zambrano2/5
- Freddy Mina2/5
Orense SC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Agustin Herrera4/5
- Beder Caicedo4/5
- Gabriel Achilier4/5
- Nixon Molina4/5
- Pedro Velasco4/5
- Rolando Silva4/5
- Valentín Burgoa4/5
- Christian Ortíz3/5
- Miguel Parrales3/5
- Alan Lorenzo2/5
- Michael Bermúdez2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 Tecnico UniversitarioOct 16, 2026
- Libertad 4-0 Guayaquil City FCOct 17, 2026
- Macara 1-0 Independiente del ValleOct 17, 2026
- Aucas 1-1 LDU de QuitoOct 17, 2026
- Delfin SC 4-2 Manta FCOct 18, 2026
- Leones del Norte 1-3 EmelecOct 18, 2026
- Barcelona SC 1-1 Universidad CatolicaOct 18, 2026
- Independiente del Valle 0-0 Universidad CatolicaOct 23, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Mushuc Runa SC a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Orense SC 19%. Mushuc Runa SC are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC?
1-0 (15.4%), followed by 1-1 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.0%).
Will both teams score in Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC?
The probability that both Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC score is 42%. Mushuc Runa SC have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Orense SC 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC?
The model expects 2.29 goals (1.52 for Mushuc Runa SC, 0.77 for Orense SC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC played?
Monday, October 19, 2026 at 21:30 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato.
What form are Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC in?
Mushuc Runa SC: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded). Orense SC: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Mushuc Runa SC, 3 for Orense SC and 0 draws. The most recent ended Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 Orense SC (Jul 20, 2026).
What was the Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SC. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Mushuc Runa SC (55%), while a draw was rated at only 26%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (11.9%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
How is the Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.52 for Mushuc Runa SC, 0.77 for Orense SC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Mushuc Runa SC predictions
- All Orense SC predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology