Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 21:00 (UK time)
Leones del Norte vs Emelec prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Leones del Norte take on Emelec on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra. Leones del Norte start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Emelec are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Leones del Norte have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Emelec have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Leones del Norte score 0.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Emelec score 1.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Leones del Norte sit 8th with 40 points from 31 games, Emelec 10th with 39 points from 31. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Leones del Norte, 1 for Emelec and 0 draws. The most recent ended Emelec 2-1 Leones del Norte (Aug 31, 2026). In double chance terms, "Leones del Norte or draw" stands at 76%, "Emelec or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Leones del Norte are tipped by our AI model in this Leones del Norte v Emelec (51%). On recent form, Leones del Norte have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Emelec have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Leones del Norte – Emelec. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leones del Norte 1-1 Emelec | 11.8% |
| Leones del Norte 1-0 Emelec | 11.5% |
| Leones del Norte 2-1 Emelec | 9.5% |
| Leones del Norte 2-0 Emelec | 9.2% |
| Leones del Norte 0-1 Emelec | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Leones del Norte and 1.03 for Emelec, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Leones del Norte keep a clean sheet in 36% of scenarios, Emelec in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Leones del Norte expected goals | 1.61 |
| Emelec expected goals | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Leones del Norte clean sheet | 36% |
| Emelec clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Leones del Norte
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Orense SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
Emelec
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manta FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 8 | 40 | 31 |
| Emelec | 10 | 39 | 31 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Emelec 2-1 Leones del Norte | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| May 3, 2026 | Leones del Norte 2-0 Emelec | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Leones del Norte
No absences reported.
Emelec
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Leones del Norte
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Solano5/5
- J. Anangono5/5
- L. Nazareno5/5
- N. Monserrat5/5
- P. Madero5/5
- T. Coppo5/5
- E. Griffa4/5
- J. Moran4/5
- M. Luque4/5
- M. Caicedo3/5
- B. Kreiman2/5
Emelec
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Leguizamon5/5
- F. Leon5/5
- J. Ruiz5/5
- J. Valverde5/5
- A. Mina4/5
- L. Gomez4/5
- M. Valero4/5
- R. Carrillo4/5
- E. Segura3/5
- L. Fragozo3/5
- G. Napoli2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Barcelona SC – Universidad CatolicaOct 18, 2026
- Delfin SC – Manta FCOct 18, 2026
- Mushuc Runa SC – Orense SCOct 18, 2026
- Aucas – LDU de QuitoOct 18, 2026
- Macara – Independiente del ValleOct 18, 2026
- Deportivo Cuenca – Tecnico UniversitarioOct 18, 2026
- Libertad – Guayaquil City FCOct 18, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Leones del Norte vs Emelec prediction?
Our AI gives Leones del Norte a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Emelec 24%. Leones del Norte are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.5%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
The probability that both Leones del Norte and Emelec score is 51%. Leones del Norte have a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Emelec 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.61 for Leones del Norte, 1.03 for Emelec). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Leones del Norte vs Emelec played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 21:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra, Ibarra.
What form are Leones del Norte and Emelec in?
Leones del Norte: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded). Emelec: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Leones del Norte and Emelec?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Leones del Norte, 1 for Emelec and 0 draws. The most recent ended Emelec 2-1 Leones del Norte (Aug 31, 2026).
How is the Leones del Norte vs Emelec prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Leones del Norte, 1.03 for Emelec) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Leones del Norte predictions
- All Emelec predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology