Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 20:00 (UK time)
Macara vs Independiente del Valle: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Macara 1-0 Independiente del Valle. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Macara was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (28.6%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (14%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (13%): correct.
Match analysis
Macara vs Independiente del Valle was played on Saturday, October 17, 2026 (Ecuadorian Liga Pro). Venue: Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. Before kick-off, our model gave Macara a 53% chance of winning, the draw 37% and Independiente del Valle 10%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (29.5%), ahead of 1-0 (28.6%) and 2-0 (13.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Macara have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Independiente del Valle have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Macara score 1.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Independiente del Valle score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Macara sit 2nd with 57 points from 32 games, Independiente del Valle 1st with 77 points from 31. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Macara have averaged 0.98 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.15 for Independiente del Valle.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Macara, 2 for Independiente del Valle and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara (Sep 6, 2026). In double chance terms, "Macara or draw" stands at 90%, "Independiente del Valle or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 63%.
In short : Our model backs Macara to edge Independiente del Valle (53% probability). In the table, Macara (2nd, 57 pts) host Independiente del Valle (1st, 77 pts). The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Macara – Independiente del Valle. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (29.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 87% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Macara 0-0 Independiente del Valle | 29.5% |
| Macara 1-0 Independiente del Valle | 28.6% |
| Macara 2-0 Independiente del Valle | 13.9% |
| Macara 0-1 Independiente del Valle | 7.4% |
| Macara 1-1 Independiente del Valle | 7.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.22 goals in total (0.97 for Macara, 0.25 for Independiente del Valle): over 2.5 goals has a 13% probability and both teams to score 14%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Macara keep a clean sheet in 78% of scenarios, Independiente del Valle in 38%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Macara expected goals | 0.97 |
| Independiente del Valle expected goals | 0.25 |
| Both teams to score | 14% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 35% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 13% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4% |
| Macara clean sheet | 78% |
| Independiente del Valle clean sheet | 38% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Macara
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Manta FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 4-3 | W |
Independiente del Valle
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aucas · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Gualaceo SC · Copa Ecuador | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Flamengo · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Libertad · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Flamengo · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 2 | 57 | 32 |
| Independiente del Valle | 1 | 77 | 31 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| May 16, 2026 | Macara 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Macara
No absences reported.
Independiente del Valle
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Macara
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Agustin Campana3/5
- Franco Posse3/5
- Jean Carlos Estacio3/5
- Jose Cazares3/5
- Rodrigo Rodríguez3/5
- Denilson Bolaños2/5
- F. Posse2/5
- J. Cazares2/5
- J. Marrufo2/5
- J. Mohor2/5
- José Luis Marrufo2/5
Independiente del Valle
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Sornoza4/5
- L. Loor4/5
- M. Carabajal4/5
- R. Schunke4/5
- A. Quintana3/5
- Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla3/5
- Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez3/5
- H. Quintana3/5
- J. Alcívar3/5
- C. González2/5
- D. Reasco2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 Tecnico UniversitarioOct 16, 2026
- Libertad 4-0 Guayaquil City FCOct 17, 2026
- Aucas 1-1 LDU de QuitoOct 17, 2026
- Delfin SC 4-2 Manta FCOct 18, 2026
- Leones del Norte 1-3 EmelecOct 18, 2026
- Barcelona SC 1-1 Universidad CatolicaOct 18, 2026
- Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SCOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Macara vs Independiente del Valle prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Macara a 53% chance of winning, the draw 37% and Independiente del Valle 10%. Macara are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
0-0 (29.5%), followed by 1-0 (28.6%), 2-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (7.4%) and 1-1 (7.2%).
Will both teams score in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
The probability that both Macara and Independiente del Valle score is 14%. Macara have a 78% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independiente del Valle 38%.
How many goals should we expect in Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 1.22 goals (0.97 for Macara, 0.25 for Independiente del Valle). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 35%, over 2.5 goals 13%, over 3.5 goals 4%.
When and where is Macara vs Independiente del Valle played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 20:00 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Bellavista, Ambato.
What form are Macara and Independiente del Valle in?
Macara: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded). Independiente del Valle: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Macara and Independiente del Valle?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Macara, 2 for Independiente del Valle and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara (Sep 6, 2026).
What was the Macara vs Independiente del Valle result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Macara 1-0 Independiente del Valle. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Macara was the model's favourite outcome (53%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (28.6%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (14%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (13%): correct.
How is the Macara vs Independiente del Valle prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.97 for Macara, 0.25 for Independiente del Valle) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Macara predictions
- All Independiente del Valle predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology