Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 22:30 (UK time)
Aucas vs LDU de Quito: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Aucas 1-1 LDU de Quito. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for LDU de Quito (47%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.3%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (26%): correct.
Match analysis
Aucas and LDU de Quito met on Saturday, October 17, 2026, a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito. Before kick-off, our model gave Aucas a 21% chance of winning, the draw 32% and LDU de Quito 47%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (19.5%), followed by 0-0 (17.4%) and 1-1 (12.3%).
Aucas have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, LDU de Quito have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. LDU de Quito therefore arrive in far better shape than Aucas. On average Aucas score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; LDU de Quito score 1.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Aucas sit 5th with 50 points from 32 games, LDU de Quito 3rd with 52 points from 32. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Aucas have averaged 0.62 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.00 for LDU de Quito.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Aucas, 1 for LDU de Quito and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aucas 0-1 LDU de Quito (Aug 17, 2026). In double chance terms, "Aucas or draw" stands at 53%, "LDU de Quito or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 68%.
In short : LDU de Quito are favourites for this Aucas v LDU de Quito, with a 47% win probability from our model. On recent form, Aucas have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while LDU de Quito have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Aucas – LDU de Quito. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (19.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 71% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aucas 0-1 LDU de Quito | 19.5% |
| Aucas 0-0 LDU de Quito | 17.4% |
| Aucas 1-1 LDU de Quito | 12.3% |
| Aucas 1-0 LDU de Quito | 10.9% |
| Aucas 0-2 LDU de Quito | 10.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.63 expected goals for Aucas and 1.12 for LDU de Quito, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 26% and "both teams to score" at 32%. Few goals are expected here. Aucas keep a clean sheet in 33% of scenarios, LDU de Quito in 53%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Aucas expected goals | 0.63 |
| LDU de Quito expected goals | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% |
| Aucas clean sheet | 33% |
| LDU de Quito clean sheet | 53% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Aucas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Macara · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Manta FC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
LDU de Quito
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Barcelona SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Universidad Catolica · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Palmeiras · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Palmeiras · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 5 | 50 | 32 |
| LDU de Quito | 3 | 52 | 32 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Aucas 0-1 LDU de Quito | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
| Apr 23, 2026 | LDU de Quito 0-0 Aucas | Ecuadorian Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Aucas
No absences reported.
LDU de Quito
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Aucas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Ederson Quiñónez3/5
- Luis Gustavino3/5
- Piero Guzmán3/5
- Santiago Morales3/5
- A. Zova2/5
- Agostino Spina2/5
- Alex Zova2/5
- Andres Mena2/5
- Hamilton Piedra2/5
- Mateo Burdisso2/5
- Michael Carcelén2/5
LDU de Quito
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Valle3/5
- J. Corozo3/5
- M. Estrada3/5
- M. Weigandt3/5
- Yerlin Quinonez3/5
- F. Cornejo2/5
- Gian Franco Allala2/5
- J. Pretell2/5
- Juan Rodríguez2/5
- L. Rodríguez2/5
- L. Segovia2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 Tecnico UniversitarioOct 16, 2026
- Libertad 4-0 Guayaquil City FCOct 17, 2026
- Macara 1-0 Independiente del ValleOct 17, 2026
- Delfin SC 4-2 Manta FCOct 18, 2026
- Leones del Norte 1-3 EmelecOct 18, 2026
- Barcelona SC 1-1 Universidad CatolicaOct 18, 2026
- Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SCOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Aucas vs LDU de Quito prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Aucas a 21% chance of winning, the draw 32% and LDU de Quito 47%. LDU de Quito are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Aucas vs LDU de Quito?
0-1 (19.5%), followed by 0-0 (17.4%), 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.9%) and 0-2 (10.9%).
Will both teams score in Aucas vs LDU de Quito?
The probability that both Aucas and LDU de Quito score is 32%. Aucas have a 33% chance of keeping a clean sheet, LDU de Quito 53%.
How many goals should we expect in Aucas vs LDU de Quito?
The model expects 1.75 goals (0.63 for Aucas, 1.12 for LDU de Quito). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 52%, over 2.5 goals 26%, over 3.5 goals 10%.
When and where is Aucas vs LDU de Quito played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 22:30 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito.
What form are Aucas and LDU de Quito in?
Aucas: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). LDU de Quito: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Aucas and LDU de Quito?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Aucas, 1 for LDU de Quito and 1 draw. The most recent ended Aucas 0-1 LDU de Quito (Aug 17, 2026).
What was the Aucas vs LDU de Quito result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Aucas 1-1 LDU de Quito. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for LDU de Quito (47%), while a draw was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (12.3%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (26%): correct.
How is the Aucas vs LDU de Quito prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.63 for Aucas, 1.12 for LDU de Quito) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Aucas predictions
- All LDU de Quito predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology