Ecuadorian Liga Pro· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC: 4-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Libertad 4-0 Guayaquil City FC. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Libertad at 50%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (80%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.
Match analysis
Libertad and Guayaquil City FC met on Saturday, October 17, 2026, a Ecuadorian Liga Pro fixture. Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja. Before kick-off, our model gave Libertad a 50% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Guayaquil City FC 31%. On the correct score, 2-2 comes out on top (6.9%), followed by 2-1 (6.8%) and 3-2 (5.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Libertad have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Guayaquil City FC have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Libertad therefore arrive in far better shape than Guayaquil City FC. On average Libertad score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Guayaquil City FC score 2.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, Libertad sit 7th with 47 points from 32 games, Guayaquil City FC 8th with 43 points from 32. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Libertad have averaged 2.12 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.42 for Guayaquil City FC.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Libertad, 1 for Guayaquil City FC and 2 draws. The most recent ended Guayaquil City FC 2-2 Libertad (Aug 15, 2026). In double chance terms, "Libertad or draw" stands at 69%, "Guayaquil City FC or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Our model backs Libertad to edge Guayaquil City FC (50% probability). On recent form, Libertad have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Guayaquil City FC have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 83%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Libertad – Guayaquil City FC. 2-2 is the single most likely scoreline (6.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 31% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Libertad 2-2 Guayaquil City FC | 6.9% |
| Libertad 2-1 Guayaquil City FC | 6.8% |
| Libertad 3-2 Guayaquil City FC | 5.9% |
| Libertad 3-1 Guayaquil City FC | 5.8% |
| Libertad 1-2 Guayaquil City FC | 5.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.56 expected goals for Libertad and 2.01 for Guayaquil City FC, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 83% and "both teams to score" at 80%. Goals look likely in this one. Libertad keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Guayaquil City FC in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Libertad expected goals | 2.56 |
| Guayaquil City FC expected goals | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 67% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 13% |
| Guayaquil City FC clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Libertad
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
Guayaquil City FC
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Emelec · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Leones del Norte · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Orense SC · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 3-4 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca · Ecuadorian Liga Pro | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 7 | 47 | 32 |
| Guayaquil City FC | 8 | 43 | 32 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC 2-2 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Libertad 0-1 Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| Oct 10, 2023 | Libertad 1-0 Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| May 6, 2023 | Guayaquil City FC 1-1 Libertad | Liga Pro |
Out and doubtful
Libertad
No absences reported.
Guayaquil City FC
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Libertad
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Cabezas5/5
- E. Patta5/5
- A. Chere4/5
- B. Caicedo4/5
- C. Valencia4/5
- J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza4/5
- O. Quinonez4/5
- V. Branda4/5
- X. E. Pineda Arana4/5
- D. Coronel3/5
- R. Morinigo3/5
Guayaquil City FC
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Arroyo5/5
- E. Mero5/5
- R. Arias5/5
- S. Laurino5/5
- D. Dorregaray4/5
- J. J. Ayovi Caicedo4/5
- J. Quinonez4/5
- P. Gonzalez4/5
- Y. Rodriguez4/5
- A. Naula3/5
- J. Pinos3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 Tecnico UniversitarioOct 16, 2026
- Macara 1-0 Independiente del ValleOct 17, 2026
- Aucas 1-1 LDU de QuitoOct 17, 2026
- Delfin SC 4-2 Manta FCOct 18, 2026
- Leones del Norte 1-3 EmelecOct 18, 2026
- Barcelona SC 1-1 Universidad CatolicaOct 18, 2026
- Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SCOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Libertad a 50% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Guayaquil City FC 31%. Libertad are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
2-2 (6.9%), followed by 2-1 (6.8%), 3-2 (5.9%), 3-1 (5.8%) and 1-2 (5.4%).
Will both teams score in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
The probability that both Libertad and Guayaquil City FC score is 80%. Libertad have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guayaquil City FC 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
The model expects 4.57 goals (2.56 for Libertad, 2.01 for Guayaquil City FC). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 67%.
When and where is Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Ecuadorian Liga Pro. Venue: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja.
What form are Libertad and Guayaquil City FC in?
Libertad: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Guayaquil City FC: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Libertad and Guayaquil City FC?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Libertad, 1 for Guayaquil City FC and 2 draws. The most recent ended Guayaquil City FC 2-2 Libertad (Aug 15, 2026).
What was the Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Libertad 4-0 Guayaquil City FC. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Libertad at 50%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (80%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (83%): correct.
How is the Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.56 for Libertad, 2.01 for Guayaquil City FC) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Libertad predictions
- All Guayaquil City FC predictions
- Ecuadorian Liga Pro predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology