Senegal Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 25, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)
Ouakam vs Jaraaf: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ouakam 1-3 Jaraaf. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ouakam (61%), while victory for Jaraaf was rated at only 17%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
Match analysis
Ouakam vs Jaraaf was played on Sunday, October 25, 2026 (Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 2). Before kick-off, our model gave Ouakam a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Jaraaf 17%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ouakam have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Jaraaf are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 6 and conceding 1. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Ouakam score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Jaraaf score 1.20 and concede 0.20.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ouakam and Jaraaf: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Ouakam or draw" stands at 83%, "Jaraaf or draw" at 39% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Our model backs Ouakam to edge Jaraaf (61% probability). On recent form, Ouakam have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Jaraaf have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 50%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ouakam – Jaraaf. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ouakam 1-0 Jaraaf | 11.8% |
| Ouakam 2-0 Jaraaf | 11.2% |
| Ouakam 1-1 Jaraaf | 10.4% |
| Ouakam 2-1 Jaraaf | 9.9% |
| Ouakam 3-0 Jaraaf | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.78 goals in total (1.90 for Ouakam, 0.88 for Jaraaf): over 2.5 goals has a 53% probability and both teams to score 50%. Ouakam keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Jaraaf in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ouakam expected goals | 1.90 |
| Jaraaf expected goals | 0.88 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% |
| Ouakam clean sheet | 42% |
| Jaraaf clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ouakam
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Sonacos · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Génération Foot · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-3 | L |
| May 17, 2026 | La Linguère · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| May 13, 2026 | Gorée · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| May 10, 2026 | Guédiawaye · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
Jaraaf
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | AJEL · Senegal Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 4, 2026 | AS Camberene · Senegal Ligue 1 | 2-0 | W |
| May 22, 2026 | Casa Sport · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
| May 17, 2026 | DSC · Senegal Ligue 1 | 3-0 | W |
| May 13, 2026 | Pikine · Senegal Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ouakam | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaraaf | 8 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Ouakam and Jaraaf: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Ouakam
No absences reported.
Jaraaf
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- AJEL 0-0 Génération FootOct 24, 2026
- DSC 0-0 GoréeOct 24, 2026
- Diambars 0-1 HLMOct 24, 2026
- Stade de Mbour 0-0 GuédiawayeOct 25, 2026
- Casa Sport 0-2 Wally DaanOct 25, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ouakam vs Jaraaf prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ouakam a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Jaraaf 17%. Ouakam are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Ouakam vs Jaraaf?
1-0 (11.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%) and 3-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Ouakam vs Jaraaf?
The probability that both Ouakam and Jaraaf score is 50%. Ouakam have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Jaraaf 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Ouakam vs Jaraaf?
The model expects 2.78 goals (1.90 for Ouakam, 0.88 for Jaraaf). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 30%.
When and where is Ouakam vs Jaraaf played?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 2.
What form are Ouakam and Jaraaf in?
Ouakam: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Jaraaf: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 1 conceded).
What was the Ouakam vs Jaraaf result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ouakam 1-3 Jaraaf. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ouakam (61%), while victory for Jaraaf was rated at only 17%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.3%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
How is the Ouakam vs Jaraaf prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.90 for Ouakam, 0.88 for Jaraaf) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ouakam predictions
- All Jaraaf predictions
- Senegal Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology