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Senegal Ligue 1Senegal Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 25, 2026, 16:30 (UK time)

Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye: 0-0 result and AI prediction review

Stade de MbourStade de Mbour0 – 0GuédiawayeGuédiawaye

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Guédiawaye (50%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

Match analysis

Stade de Mbour and Guédiawaye met on Sunday, October 25, 2026, a Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 2 fixture. Before kick-off, our model gave Stade de Mbour a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Guédiawaye 50%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.4%) and 1-2 (9.5%).

Stade de Mbour have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Guédiawaye have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Stade de Mbour score 0.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Guédiawaye score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Stade de Mbour sit 9th with 1 points from 1 games, Guédiawaye 4th with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Stade de Mbour and Guédiawaye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Stade de Mbour or draw" stands at 50%, "Guédiawaye or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 75%.

In short : Guédiawaye are favourites for this Stade de Mbour v Guédiawaye, with a 50% win probability from our model. On recent form, Stade de Mbour have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Guédiawaye have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

25%
Stade de Mbour (Win)
25%
Draw
50%
Guédiawaye (Win)

Double chance

50%
Stade de Mbour or draw
75%
Guédiawaye or draw
75%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Stade de Mbour – Guédiawaye. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Stade de Mbour 1-1 Guédiawaye11.9%
Stade de Mbour 0-1 Guédiawaye11.4%
Stade de Mbour 1-2 Guédiawaye9.5%
Stade de Mbour 0-2 Guédiawaye9.1%
Stade de Mbour 1-0 Guédiawaye7.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.04 expected goals for Stade de Mbour and 1.60 for Guédiawaye, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Stade de Mbour keep a clean sheet in 20% of scenarios, Guédiawaye in 35%.

Probability
Stade de Mbour expected goals1.04
Guédiawaye expected goals1.60
Both teams to score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Stade de Mbour clean sheet20%
Guédiawaye clean sheet35%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Stade de Mbour

DateOpponentScore
Oct 17, 2026Wally Daan · Senegal Ligue 10-0D
Jun 4, 2026Gorée · Senegal Ligue 10-0D
May 22, 2026Guédiawaye · Senegal Ligue 10-2L
May 17, 2026Teungueth · Senegal Ligue 10-2L
May 13, 2026DSC · Senegal Ligue 12-0W

Guédiawaye

DateOpponentScore
Oct 17, 2026DSC · Senegal Ligue 12-1W
Jun 4, 2026Teungueth · Senegal Ligue 10-1L
May 22, 2026Stade de Mbour · Senegal Ligue 12-0W
May 17, 2026Wally Daan · Senegal Ligue 12-3L
May 13, 2026AJEL · Senegal Ligue 10-1L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Stade de Mbour911
Guédiawaye431

Head-to-head

Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Stade de Mbour and Guédiawaye: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.

Out and doubtful

Stade de Mbour

No absences reported.

Guédiawaye

No absences reported.

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Stade de Mbour a 25% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Guédiawaye 50%. Guédiawaye are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye?

1-1 (11.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.4%), 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (9.1%) and 1-0 (7.4%).

Will both teams score in Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye?

The probability that both Stade de Mbour and Guédiawaye score is 52%. Stade de Mbour have a 20% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Guédiawaye 35%.

How many goals should we expect in Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye?

The model expects 2.64 goals (1.04 for Stade de Mbour, 1.60 for Guédiawaye). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.

When and where is Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye played?

Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 16:30 (UK time), Senegal Ligue 1, matchday 2.

What form are Stade de Mbour and Guédiawaye in?

Stade de Mbour: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 4 conceded). Guédiawaye: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What was the Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Stade de Mbour 0-0 Guédiawaye. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Guédiawaye (50%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): correct.

How is the Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.04 for Stade de Mbour, 1.60 for Guédiawaye) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained