Ligue 1· Kick-off : Sunday, October 25, 2026, 16:15 (UK time)
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Toulouse (81%), while a draw was rated at only 13%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): missed.
Match analysis
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes was played on Sunday, October 25, 2026 (Ligue 1, matchday 8). Venue: Stadium Municipal, Toulouse. Before kick-off, our model gave Toulouse a 81% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Estac Troyes 6%. The most likely correct score is 2-0 (14.3%), ahead of 3-0 (12.2%) and 1-0 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Toulouse have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Estac Troyes have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Toulouse. On average Toulouse score 2.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Estac Troyes score 0.60 and concede 2.20. In the table, Toulouse sit 12th with 9 points from 7 games, Estac Troyes 17th with 4 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Toulouse have averaged 1.65 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.89 for Estac Troyes.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Estac Troyes and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes (Feb 1, 2023). Toulouse out or doubtful: M. Niflore and S. Oppong. Estac Troyes: I. Boura, Y. Kone, A. Ouzenadji and Y. Titi. In double chance terms, "Toulouse or draw" stands at 94%, "Estac Troyes or draw" at 19% and "no draw" at 87%.
In short : Toulouse are favourites for this Toulouse v Estac Troyes, with a 81% win probability from our model. In the table, Toulouse (12th, 9 pts) host Estac Troyes (17th, 4 pts). One to watch: Estac Troyes will be without I. Boura and Y. Kone.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Toulouse – Estac Troyes. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse 2-0 Estac Troyes | 14.3% |
| Toulouse 3-0 Estac Troyes | 12.2% |
| Toulouse 1-0 Estac Troyes | 11.1% |
| Toulouse 2-1 Estac Troyes | 8.1% |
| Toulouse 4-0 Estac Troyes | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.14 goals in total (2.57 for Toulouse, 0.57 for Estac Troyes): over 2.5 goals has a 61% probability and both teams to score 40%. Everything points to an open game. Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 57% of scenarios, Estac Troyes in 8%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Toulouse expected goals | 2.57 |
| Estac Troyes expected goals | 0.57 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 57% |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 8% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Toulouse
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monaco · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre · Ligue 1 | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient · Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
Estac Troyes
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 1-3 | L |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille · Ligue 1 | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 12 | 9 | 7 |
| Estac Troyes | 17 | 4 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2023 | Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Estac Troyes 0-3 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Jul 9, 2022 | Toulouse 6-1 Estac Troyes | Club Friendlies |
| Feb 6, 2021 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
Out and doubtful
Toulouse
- M. Niflore (out)
- S. Oppong (out)
Estac Troyes
- I. Boura (out)
- Y. Kone (out)
- A. Ouzenadji (out)
- Y. Titi (out)
Most regular starters
Toulouse
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Russell-Rowe4/4
- M. McKenzie4/4
- R. Messali4/4
- C. Casseres3/4
- C. Tape3/4
- C. Tengstedt3/4
- G. Restes3/4
- I. Azizi3/4
- S. Koumbassa3/4
- T. Jorgensen3/4
- N. Sigur2/4
Estac Troyes
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Diop5/5
- A. Mille4/5
- A. Monfray4/5
- D. Karim4/5
- L. Maronnier4/5
- P. Beach4/5
- J. Le Douaron3/5
- J. M. Diaz3/5
- T. Nkada3/5
- A. Ouzenadji2/5
- H. Picard2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Stade Brestois 29 1-2 NiceOct 23, 2026
- Lens 2-1 Paris FCOct 24, 2026
- Monaco 1-1 LilleOct 25, 2026
- Rennes 3-0 StrasbourgOct 25, 2026
- Auxerre 1-1 Le MansOct 25, 2026
- Marseille 4-3 Le HavreOct 25, 2026
- Angers 0-0 LorientOct 25, 2026
- Paris Saint Germain 2-0 LyonOct 26, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Toulouse a 81% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Estac Troyes 6%. Toulouse are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
2-0 (14.3%), followed by 3-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.1%) and 4-0 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
The probability that both Toulouse and Estac Troyes score is 40%. Toulouse have a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estac Troyes 8%.
How many goals should we expect in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
The model expects 3.14 goals (2.57 for Toulouse, 0.57 for Estac Troyes). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 82%, over 2.5 goals 61%, over 3.5 goals 38%.
When and where is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes played?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 16:15 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 8. Venue: Stadium Municipal, Toulouse.
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in?
Toulouse: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 9 conceded). Estac Troyes: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Estac Troyes and 2 draws. The most recent ended Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes (Feb 1, 2023).
What was the Toulouse vs Estac Troyes result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Toulouse (81%), while a draw was rated at only 13%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (61%): missed.
How is the Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.57 for Toulouse, 0.57 for Estac Troyes) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Toulouse predictions
- All Estac Troyes predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology