Ligue 1· Kick-off : Monday, October 26, 2026, 19:30 (UK time)
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lyon. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Paris Saint Germain at 74%. The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
Match analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon met on Monday, October 26, 2026, a Ligue 1, matchday 8 fixture. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris. Before kick-off, our model gave Paris Saint Germain a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Lyon 10%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (9.7%) and 3-0 (9.7%).
Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 16 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Lyon have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Paris Saint Germain therefore arrive in far better shape than Lyon. On average Paris Saint Germain score 3.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Lyon score 2.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Paris Saint Germain sit 5th with 14 points from 7 games, Lyon 4th with 14 points from 7. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Paris Saint Germain have averaged 3.13 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.41 for Lyon.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 1 for Lyon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon (Apr 19, 2026). Paris Saint Germain out or doubtful: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes and A. Longoni (doubtful). Lyon: S. Kango, K. Nakamura (suspended), L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico and A. Hamdani. In double chance terms, "Paris Saint Germain or draw" stands at 90%, "Lyon or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : Our model backs Paris Saint Germain to edge Lyon (74% probability). In the table, Paris Saint Germain (5th, 14 pts) host Lyon (4th, 14 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 62%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Paris Saint Germain – Lyon. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lyon | 11.9% |
| Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Lyon | 9.7% |
| Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lyon | 9.7% |
| Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lyon | 9.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Lyon | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.44 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.78 for Lyon, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Goals look likely in this one. Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 46% of scenarios, Lyon in 9%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain expected goals | 2.44 |
| Lyon expected goals | 0.78 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 46% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 9% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Paris Saint Germain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Barcelona · UEFA Champions League | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Strasbourg · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Manchester City · UEFA Champions League | 4-2 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Mans · Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim · UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Nice · Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace · UEFA Europa League | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens · Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes · Ligue 1 | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 14 | 7 |
| Lyon | 4 | 14 | 7 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2024 | Lyon 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
Out and doubtful
Paris Saint Germain
- O. Dembele (out)
- K. Kvaratskhelia (out)
- Marquinhos (out)
- N. Mendes (out)
- A. Longoni (doubtful)
Lyon
- S. Kango (out)
- K. Nakamura (suspended)
- L. Openda (out)
- M. Ouedraogo (out)
- P. Sulc (out)
- N. Tagliafico (out)
- A. Hamdani (out)
Most regular starters
Paris Saint Germain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Safonov5/5
- A. Hakimi3/5
- J. Neves3/5
- K. Kvaratskhelia3/5
- M. Akliouche3/5
- Marquinhos3/5
- Vitinha3/5
- W. Pacho3/5
- D. Doué2/5
- D. Fernandez2/5
- F. Torres2/5
Lyon
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Bidstrup4/5
- Abner Vinicius3/5
- D. Greif3/5
- F. Bacher3/5
- P. Sulc3/5
- Z. Athekame3/5
- C. Tolisso2/5
- E. Nuamah2/5
- K. Boudache2/5
- Keito Nakamura2/5
- L. Openda2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Stade Brestois 29 1-2 NiceOct 23, 2026
- Lens 2-1 Paris FCOct 24, 2026
- Monaco 1-1 LilleOct 25, 2026
- Rennes 3-0 StrasbourgOct 25, 2026
- Toulouse 0-0 Estac TroyesOct 25, 2026
- Auxerre 1-1 Le MansOct 25, 2026
- Marseille 4-3 Le HavreOct 25, 2026
- Angers 0-0 LorientOct 25, 2026
- Le Havre – Paris Saint GermainOct 30, 2026
- Nice – RennesOct 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Paris Saint Germain a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Lyon 10%. Paris Saint Germain are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
2-0 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (9.7%), 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
The probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Lyon score is 49%. Paris Saint Germain have a 46% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lyon 9%.
How many goals should we expect in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
The model expects 3.22 goals (2.44 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.78 for Lyon). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.
When and where is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon played?
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 19:30 (UK time), Ligue 1, matchday 8. Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Lyon in?
Paris Saint Germain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (16 scored, 7 conceded). Lyon: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Lyon?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 4 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 1 for Lyon and 0 draws. The most recent ended Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon (Apr 19, 2026).
What was the Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lyon. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Paris Saint Germain at 74%. The exact score 2-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (11.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
How is the Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.44 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.78 for Lyon) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Paris Saint Germain predictions
- All Lyon predictions
- Ligue 1 predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology