Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 8, 2026, 02:20 (UK time)
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Colombian Primera A: the Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima match is scheduled on Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 02:20 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot. With a 62% win probability, Atletico Nacional go in as strong favourites against Deportes Tolima (16%), with the draw rated at 22%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (12.8%), ahead of 2-0 (11.9%) and 1-1 (10.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Nacional have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Deportes Tolima have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Atletico Nacional. On average Atletico Nacional score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Deportes Tolima score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Atletico Nacional sit 3rd with 19 points from 9 games, Deportes Tolima 7th with 17 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 for Deportes Tolima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima (May 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Nacional or draw" stands at 84%, "Deportes Tolima or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Atletico Nacional are favourites for this Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima, with a 62% win probability from our model. On recent form, Atletico Nacional have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Deportes Tolima have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Nacional – Deportes Tolima. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional 1-0 Deportes Tolima | 12.8% |
| Atletico Nacional 2-0 Deportes Tolima | 11.9% |
| Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportes Tolima | 10.5% |
| Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportes Tolima | 9.7% |
| Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportes Tolima | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.86 for Atletico Nacional, 0.82 for Deportes Tolima): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 47%. Atletico Nacional keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Deportes Tolima in 16%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional expected goals | 1.86 |
| Deportes Tolima expected goals | 0.82 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Atletico Nacional clean sheet | 44% |
| Deportes Tolima clean sheet | 16% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Llaneros · Colombian Primera A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Deportivo Cali · Copa Colombia | 3-0 | W |
Deportes Tolima
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Independiente del Valle · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 3 | 19 | 9 |
| Deportes Tolima | 7 | 17 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima | Colombian Primera A |
| May 17, 2026 | Deportes Tolima 0-1 Atletico Nacional | Colombian Primera A |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Deportes Tolima 1-0 Atletico Nacional | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Nacional
No absences reported.
Deportes Tolima
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atletico Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Armani4/5
- J. Rengifo4/5
- M. Moreno4/5
- N. Parra4/5
- W. Tesillo4/5
- A. Roman3/5
- A. Sarmiento3/5
- C. Arango3/5
- J. Zapata3/5
- A. Morelos2/5
- A. Reyes2/5
Deportes Tolima
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Guzman5/5
- A. Parra Osorio4/5
- H. E. Martinez Yepez4/5
- J. Angulo4/5
- J. Hernandez4/5
- J. Hurtado4/5
- A. Angulo3/5
- C. Arrieta3/5
- J. Mosquera3/5
- K. Florez3/5
- L. Sanchez3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Deportivo Pasto – Fortaleza FCOct 4, 2026
- Cucuta – Deportivo PereiraOct 4, 2026
- Bucaramanga – JuniorOct 5, 2026
- Llaneros – America de CaliOct 5, 2026
- Alianza Valledupar – Águilas DoradasOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Nacional a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportes Tolima 16%. Atletico Nacional are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
1-0 (12.8%), followed by 2-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 3-0 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The probability that both Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima score is 47%. Atletico Nacional have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportes Tolima 16%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.86 for Atletico Nacional, 0.82 for Deportes Tolima). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima played?
Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 02:20 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
What form are Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima in?
Atletico Nacional: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Deportes Tolima: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 for Deportes Tolima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima (May 24, 2026).
How is the Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.86 for Atletico Nacional, 0.82 for Deportes Tolima) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Nacional predictions
- All Deportes Tolima predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology