Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 00:10 (UK time)
Bucaramanga vs Junior: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bucaramanga 3-1 Junior. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bucaramanga at 46%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.
Match analysis
Bucaramanga and Junior met on Monday, October 5, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga. Before kick-off, our model gave Bucaramanga a 46% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Junior 26%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.1%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-0 (10.6%).
Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Junior have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Bucaramanga therefore arrive in far better shape than Junior. On average Bucaramanga score 2.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Junior score 2.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Bucaramanga sit 5th with 20 points from 10 games, Junior 17th with 9 points from 10. 12 places separate the two sides.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bucaramanga, 3 for Junior and 1 draw. The most recent ended Junior 2-0 Bucaramanga (Mar 24, 2026). In double chance terms, "Bucaramanga or draw" stands at 74%, "Junior or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Bucaramanga are favourites for this Bucaramanga v Junior, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Bucaramanga have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Junior have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bucaramanga – Junior. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bucaramanga 1-0 Junior | 14.1% |
| Bucaramanga 1-1 Junior | 12.9% |
| Bucaramanga 0-0 Junior | 10.6% |
| Bucaramanga 0-1 Junior | 9.8% |
| Bucaramanga 2-0 Junior | 9.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.32 expected goals for Bucaramanga and 0.92 for Junior, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 39% and "both teams to score" at 44%. Few goals are expected here. Bucaramanga keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Junior in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bucaramanga expected goals | 1.32 |
| Junior expected goals | 0.92 |
| Both teams to score | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Bucaramanga clean sheet | 40% |
| Junior clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bucaramanga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
Junior
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Atletico Nacional · Colombian Primera A | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 3-3 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 5 | 20 | 10 |
| Junior | 17 | 9 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | Junior 2-0 Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Junior 2-1 Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Bucaramanga 1-1 Junior | Primera A |
| Jul 19, 2024 | Bucaramanga 1-0 Junior | Primera A |
| May 26, 2024 | Junior 1-0 Bucaramanga | Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Bucaramanga
No absences reported.
Junior
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bucaramanga
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Batalla5/5
- F. Hinestroza5/5
- J. Ortiz5/5
- L. Pons5/5
- C. Fiermarin4/5
- C. Romana4/5
- F. Charrupi4/5
- F. Sambueza4/5
- N. Castrillon3/5
- A. Gutierrez2/5
- Fabry2/5
Junior
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Rivera5/5
- M. Silveira4/5
- D. Caicedo3/5
- G. Paiva3/5
- J. Pena3/5
- Y. Suarez3/5
- B. Castrillon2/5
- B. Castrillón2/5
- C. Barrios2/5
- F. Ángel2/5
- F. Fydriszewski2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Atletico Nacional 3-1 JuniorOct 1, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 3-1 Alianza ValleduparOct 3, 2026
- Águilas Doradas 2-0 JaguaresOct 3, 2026
- Deportes Tolima 0-0 ChicoOct 3, 2026
- Deportivo Pasto 0-0 Fortaleza FCOct 4, 2026
- Cucuta 4-0 Deportivo PereiraOct 4, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota 1-1 Once CaldasOct 4, 2026
- Llaneros 1-2 America de CaliOct 5, 2026
- Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa FeOct 6, 2026
- Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes TolimaOct 9, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bucaramanga vs Junior prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bucaramanga a 46% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Junior 26%. Bucaramanga are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Bucaramanga vs Junior?
1-0 (14.1%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.3%).
Will both teams score in Bucaramanga vs Junior?
The probability that both Bucaramanga and Junior score is 44%. Bucaramanga have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Junior 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Bucaramanga vs Junior?
The model expects 2.24 goals (1.32 for Bucaramanga, 0.92 for Junior). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Bucaramanga vs Junior played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 00:10 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga.
What form are Bucaramanga and Junior in?
Bucaramanga: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded). Junior: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bucaramanga and Junior?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bucaramanga, 3 for Junior and 1 draw. The most recent ended Junior 2-0 Bucaramanga (Mar 24, 2026).
What was the Bucaramanga vs Junior result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bucaramanga 3-1 Junior. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bucaramanga at 46%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.8%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (44%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.
How is the Bucaramanga vs Junior prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.32 for Bucaramanga, 0.92 for Junior) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bucaramanga predictions
- All Junior predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology