Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)
Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Atletico Nacional take on Junior on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Our model makes Atletico Nacional clear favourites: a 83% chance of winning, against 12% for the draw and 5% for Junior. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 3-0 (12.4%) and 1-0 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Nacional have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Junior have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 10. Atletico Nacional therefore arrive in far better shape than Junior. On average Atletico Nacional score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Junior score 2.00 and concede 2.00. In the table, Atletico Nacional sit 3rd with 19 points from 9 games, Junior 20th with 6 points from 8. 17 places separate the two sides.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 for Junior and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior (Jun 8, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Nacional or draw" stands at 95%, "Junior or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Atletico Nacional are tipped by our AI model in this Atletico Nacional v Junior (83%). On recent form, Atletico Nacional have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Junior have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Nacional – Junior. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional 2-0 Junior | 13.1% |
| Atletico Nacional 3-0 Junior | 12.4% |
| Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior | 9.3% |
| Atletico Nacional 4-0 Junior | 8.7% |
| Atletico Nacional 2-1 Junior | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.83 expected goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.59 for Junior, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 66% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Goals look likely in this one. Atletico Nacional keep a clean sheet in 55% of scenarios, Junior in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional expected goals | 2.83 |
| Junior expected goals | 0.59 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Atletico Nacional clean sheet | 55% |
| Junior clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Llaneros · Colombian Primera A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Deportivo Cali · Copa Colombia | 3-0 | W |
Junior
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 27, 2026 | America de Cali · Colombian Primera A | 2-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 3 | 19 | 9 |
| Junior | 20 | 6 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior | Colombian Primera A |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Junior 3-0 Atletico Nacional | Colombian Primera A |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Junior 0-4 Atletico Nacional | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Nacional
No absences reported.
Junior
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atletico Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Armani4/5
- J. Rengifo4/5
- M. Moreno4/5
- N. Parra4/5
- W. Tesillo4/5
- A. Roman3/5
- A. Sarmiento3/5
- C. Arango3/5
- J. Zapata3/5
- A. Morelos2/5
- A. Reyes2/5
Junior
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Silveira5/5
- Y. Suarez5/5
- B. Castrillon4/5
- D. Rivera4/5
- J. Pena4/5
- J. Rios4/5
- C. Barrios3/5
- J. Rivas3/5
- L. Muriel3/5
- D. Socarras2/5
- E. Herrera2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Jaguares – Alianza ValleduparSep 27, 2026
- Fortaleza FC – Deportes TolimaSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Águilas DoradasSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira – Santa FeSep 30, 2026
- Independiente Medellin – MillonariosSep 30, 2026
- Internacional de Bogota – Once CaldasOct 2, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Alianza ValleduparOct 3, 2026
- Águilas Doradas – JaguaresOct 3, 2026
- Deportes Tolima – ChicoOct 3, 2026
- Independiente Medellin – Santa FeOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction?
Our AI gives Atletico Nacional a 83% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Junior 5%. Atletico Nacional are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
2-0 (13.1%), followed by 3-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (9.3%), 4-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The probability that both Atletico Nacional and Junior score is 42%. Atletico Nacional have a 55% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Junior 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The model expects 3.42 goals (2.83 for Atletico Nacional, 0.59 for Junior). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Atletico Nacional vs Junior played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
What form are Atletico Nacional and Junior in?
Atletico Nacional: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Junior: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Nacional and Junior?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 for Junior and 0 draws. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior (Jun 8, 2026).
How is the Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.83 for Atletico Nacional, 0.59 for Junior) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Nacional predictions
- All Junior predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology