Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 02:00 (UK time)
Atletico Nacional vs Junior: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 3-1 Junior. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atletico Nacional at 64%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.
Match analysis
Atletico Nacional and Junior met on Thursday, October 1, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin. Before kick-off, our model gave Atletico Nacional a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Junior 13%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (16.6%), followed by 2-0 (14.2%) and 1-1 (10.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Atletico Nacional have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Junior have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atletico Nacional score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Junior score 2.00 and concede 1.20. In the table, Atletico Nacional sit 6th with 19 points from 9 games, Junior 16th with 9 points from 9. 10 places separate the two sides.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Nacional, 2 for Junior and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior (Jun 8, 2026). In double chance terms, "Atletico Nacional or draw" stands at 87%, "Junior or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Atletico Nacional are tipped by our AI model in this Atletico Nacional v Junior (64%). On recent form, Atletico Nacional have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Junior have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Atletico Nacional – Junior. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior | 16.6% |
| Atletico Nacional 2-0 Junior | 14.2% |
| Atletico Nacional 1-1 Junior | 10.3% |
| Atletico Nacional 0-0 Junior | 9.6% |
| Atletico Nacional 2-1 Junior | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.72 expected goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.62 for Junior, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 42% and "both teams to score" at 38%. Few goals are expected here. Atletico Nacional keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Junior in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional expected goals | 1.72 |
| Junior expected goals | 0.62 |
| Both teams to score | 38% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Atletico Nacional clean sheet | 54% |
| Junior clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Atletico Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc · Club Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Millonarios · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Llaneros · Colombian Primera A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
Junior
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 6 | 19 | 9 |
| Junior | 16 | 9 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior | Primera A |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Junior 3-0 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Junior 0-4 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Junior 2-1 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 1-1 Junior | Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Atletico Nacional
No absences reported.
Junior
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Atletico Nacional
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Zapata4/5
- C. Arango3/5
- F. Armani3/5
- J. Rengifo3/5
- M. Casco3/5
- M. Moreno3/5
- N. Parra3/5
- W. Tesillo3/5
- X. Rios3/5
- A. Reyes2/5
- A. Roman2/5
Junior
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Silveira5/5
- D. Rivera4/5
- J. Pena4/5
- Y. Suarez4/5
- B. Castrillon3/5
- F. Fydriszewski3/5
- J. Rios3/5
- C. Barrios2/5
- D. Caicedo2/5
- D. Socarras2/5
- F. S. Angel Bernal2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Jaguares 1-2 Alianza ValleduparSep 27, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 2-2 Deportes TolimaSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 2-0 Águilas DoradasSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 1-2 Santa FeSep 29, 2026
- Independiente Medellin 2-2 MillonariosSep 30, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 3-1 Alianza ValleduparOct 3, 2026
- Águilas Doradas 2-0 JaguaresOct 3, 2026
- Deportes Tolima 0-0 ChicoOct 3, 2026
- Deportivo Pasto 0-0 Fortaleza FCOct 4, 2026
- Cucuta 4-0 Deportivo PereiraOct 4, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Atletico Nacional a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Junior 13%. Atletico Nacional are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
1-0 (16.6%), followed by 2-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The probability that both Atletico Nacional and Junior score is 38%. Atletico Nacional have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Junior 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The model expects 2.34 goals (1.72 for Atletico Nacional, 0.62 for Junior). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 42%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Atletico Nacional vs Junior played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 02:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin.
What form are Atletico Nacional and Junior in?
Atletico Nacional: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Junior: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Nacional and Junior?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Atletico Nacional, 2 for Junior and 1 draw. The most recent ended Atletico Nacional 1-0 Junior (Jun 8, 2026).
What was the Atletico Nacional vs Junior result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Atletico Nacional 3-1 Junior. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Atletico Nacional at 64%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (42%): missed.
How is the Atletico Nacional vs Junior prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.72 for Atletico Nacional, 0.62 for Junior) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Atletico Nacional predictions
- All Junior predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology