Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 22:00 (UK time)
Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Jaguares take on Alianza Valledupar on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria. The edge goes to Jaguares (50%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Alianza Valledupar win (25%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.9%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Jaguares have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 9 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Alianza Valledupar have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Jaguares score 1.80 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Alianza Valledupar score 0.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, Jaguares sit 19th with 7 points from 9 games, Alianza Valledupar 16th with 8 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Jaguares, 1 for Alianza Valledupar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Jaguares (Mar 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Jaguares or draw" stands at 75%, "Alianza Valledupar or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Jaguares are tipped by our AI model in this Jaguares v Alianza Valledupar (50%). In the table, Jaguares (19th, 7 pts) host Alianza Valledupar (16th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Jaguares – Alianza Valledupar. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jaguares 1-1 Alianza Valledupar | 11.9% |
| Jaguares 1-0 Alianza Valledupar | 11.4% |
| Jaguares 2-1 Alianza Valledupar | 9.5% |
| Jaguares 2-0 Alianza Valledupar | 9.1% |
| Jaguares 0-1 Alianza Valledupar | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.64 goals in total (1.60 for Jaguares, 1.04 for Alianza Valledupar): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Jaguares keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Alianza Valledupar in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Jaguares expected goals | 1.60 |
| Alianza Valledupar expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Jaguares clean sheet | 35% |
| Alianza Valledupar clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Jaguares
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Junior · Colombian Primera A | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | America de Cali · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
Alianza Valledupar
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Junior · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Once Caldas · Copa Colombia | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 3, 2026 | America de Cali · Colombian Primera A | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares | 19 | 7 | 9 |
| Alianza Valledupar | 16 | 8 | 10 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Jaguares | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Jaguares
No absences reported.
Alianza Valledupar
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Jaguares
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Renteria5/5
- C. Henao5/5
- J. Arcila5/5
- J. Franco5/5
- R. Bustamante5/5
- R. R. Colpa Bolano5/5
- F. Mosquera4/5
- W. De La Rosa4/5
- J. Malagon3/5
- J. Mejia3/5
- Jopito3/5
Alianza Valledupar
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Quinones4/5
- E. Beltran4/5
- F. Pardo4/5
- I. Alba4/5
- J. Castillo4/5
- J. Figueroa4/5
- J. Munoz4/5
- J. Viveros4/5
- C. Vergara3/5
- J. Lasso3/5
- W. Fernandez3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Chico – Deportivo PastoSep 26, 2026
- Once Caldas – BucaramangaSep 26, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira – Internacional de BogotaSep 26, 2026
- Cucuta – LlanerosSep 27, 2026
- Junior – Independiente MedellinSep 27, 2026
- Fortaleza FC – Deportes TolimaSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Águilas DoradasSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira – Santa FeSep 30, 2026
- Independiente Medellin – MillonariosSep 30, 2026
- Atletico Nacional – JuniorOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar prediction?
Our AI gives Jaguares a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alianza Valledupar 25%. Jaguares are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar?
1-1 (11.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.1%) and 0-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar?
The probability that both Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar score is 52%. Jaguares have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Alianza Valledupar 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar?
The model expects 2.64 goals (1.60 for Jaguares, 1.04 for Alianza Valledupar). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 22:00 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria.
What form are Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar in?
Jaguares: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 9 conceded). Alianza Valledupar: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Jaguares, 1 for Alianza Valledupar and 0 draws. The most recent ended Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Jaguares (Mar 19, 2026).
How is the Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.60 for Jaguares, 1.04 for Alianza Valledupar) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Jaguares predictions
- All Alianza Valledupar predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology