Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 02:20 (UK time)
Junior vs Independiente Medellin: 2-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Junior 2-0 Independiente Medellin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Junior at 39%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): correct.
Match analysis
Junior and Independiente Medellin met on Sunday, September 27, 2026, a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla. Before kick-off, our model gave Junior a 39% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Independiente Medellin 33%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.3%), followed by 1-0 (12.4%) and 0-1 (11.2%).
Junior have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 10 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Independiente Medellin have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Independiente Medellin therefore arrive in far better shape than Junior. On average Junior score 2.00 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Independiente Medellin score 2.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Junior sit 20th with 6 points from 8 games, Independiente Medellin 5th with 19 points from 9. 15 places separate the two sides.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Junior, 3 for Independiente Medellin and 1 draw. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 2-0 Junior (Mar 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Junior or draw" stands at 67%, "Independiente Medellin or draw" at 61% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Junior and Independiente Medellin: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Junior have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Independiente Medellin have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Junior – Independiente Medellin. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Junior 1-1 Independiente Medellin | 13.3% |
| Junior 1-0 Independiente Medellin | 12.4% |
| Junior 0-1 Independiente Medellin | 11.2% |
| Junior 0-0 Independiente Medellin | 10.4% |
| Junior 2-1 Independiente Medellin | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.19 expected goals for Junior and 1.07 for Independiente Medellin, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 39% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Few goals are expected here. Junior keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Independiente Medellin in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Junior expected goals | 1.19 |
| Independiente Medellin expected goals | 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Junior clean sheet | 34% |
| Independiente Medellin clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Junior
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC · Colombian Primera A | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 3-3 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 27, 2026 | America de Cali · Colombian Primera A | 2-4 | L |
Independiente Medellin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Jaguares · Colombian Primera A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Copa Colombia | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior | 20 | 6 | 8 |
| Independiente Medellin | 5 | 19 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Independiente Medellin 2-0 Junior | Primera A |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 2-1 Junior | Primera A |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Junior 1-0 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 2-2 Junior | Primera A |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-0 Junior | Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Junior
No absences reported.
Independiente Medellin
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Junior
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Silveira5/5
- Y. Suarez5/5
- B. Castrillon4/5
- D. Rivera4/5
- J. Pena4/5
- J. Rios4/5
- C. Barrios3/5
- J. Rivas3/5
- L. Muriel3/5
- D. Socarras2/5
- E. Herrera2/5
Independiente Medellin
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Montano5/5
- K. Mantilla5/5
- A. Martegani4/5
- E. Chaux4/5
- E. Mena Perea4/5
- J. Medina4/5
- J. Quintero4/5
- J. Varela4/5
- D. Moreno3/5
- J. Mena3/5
- Yony Gonzalez3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Chico 3-0 Deportivo PastoSep 26, 2026
- Once Caldas 1-3 BucaramangaSep 26, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 0-0 Internacional de BogotaSep 26, 2026
- Cucuta 2-1 LlanerosSep 27, 2026
- Jaguares 1-2 Alianza ValleduparSep 27, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 2-2 Deportes TolimaSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 2-0 Águilas DoradasSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 1-2 Santa FeSep 29, 2026
- Independiente Medellin 2-2 MillonariosSep 30, 2026
- Atletico Nacional 3-1 JuniorOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Junior vs Independiente Medellin prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Junior a 39% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Independiente Medellin 33%. Junior are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
1-1 (13.3%), followed by 1-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
The probability that both Junior and Independiente Medellin score is 46%. Junior have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independiente Medellin 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
The model expects 2.26 goals (1.19 for Junior, 1.07 for Independiente Medellin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Junior vs Independiente Medellin played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 02:20 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla.
What form are Junior and Independiente Medellin in?
Junior: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded). Independiente Medellin: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Junior and Independiente Medellin?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Junior, 3 for Independiente Medellin and 1 draw. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 2-0 Junior (Mar 20, 2026).
What was the Junior vs Independiente Medellin result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Junior 2-0 Independiente Medellin. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Junior at 39%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (7.4%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): correct.
How is the Junior vs Independiente Medellin prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.19 for Junior, 1.07 for Independiente Medellin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Junior predictions
- All Independiente Medellin predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology