Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 27, 2026, 02:20 (UK time)
Junior vs Independiente Medellin prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Junior take on Independiente Medellin on Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 02:20 (UK time), a Colombian Primera A fixture. Venue: Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla. It is a tight call: 31% for Junior, 29% for the draw and 40% for Independiente Medellin. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.5%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%) and 0-0 (11.6%).
Junior are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Independiente Medellin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Junior score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Independiente Medellin score 1.60 and concede 1.40. In the table, Junior sit 20th with 6 points from 8 games, Independiente Medellin 4th with 19 points from 9. 16 places separate the two sides.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Junior, 1 for Independiente Medellin and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 2-0 Junior (Mar 20, 2026). In double chance terms, "Junior or draw" stands at 60%, "Independiente Medellin or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Our model backs Independiente Medellin to edge Junior (40% probability). On recent form, Junior have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Independiente Medellin have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Junior – Independiente Medellin. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Junior 0-1 Independiente Medellin | 13.5% |
| Junior 1-1 Independiente Medellin | 13.4% |
| Junior 0-0 Independiente Medellin | 11.6% |
| Junior 1-0 Independiente Medellin | 11.5% |
| Junior 0-2 Independiente Medellin | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.99 expected goals for Junior and 1.16 for Independiente Medellin, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Junior keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Independiente Medellin in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Junior expected goals | 0.99 |
| Independiente Medellin expected goals | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Junior clean sheet | 31% |
| Independiente Medellin clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Junior
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Santa Fe · Primera A | 0-0 | D |
| May 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal · CONMEBOL Libertadores | 3-2 | W |
| May 17, 2026 | Santa Fe · Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| May 14, 2026 | Once Caldas · Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| May 11, 2026 | Once Caldas · Primera A | 1-0 | W |
Independiente Medellin
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-1 | L |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Cucuta · Copa Colombia | 2-1 | W |
| May 30, 2026 | Leones FC · Copa Colombia | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior | 20 | 6 | 8 |
| Independiente Medellin | 4 | 19 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Independiente Medellin 2-0 Junior | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Junior
No absences reported.
Independiente Medellin
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Independiente Medellin
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Moreno2/3
- E. Mena Perea2/3
- H. Loboa2/3
- J. Mena2/3
- J. Montano2/3
- J. Varela2/3
- A. Martegani1/3
- Agustín Martegani1/3
- D. Catano1/3
- Didier Moreno1/3
- E. Chaux1/3
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Chico – Deportivo PastoSep 26, 2026
- Once Caldas – BucaramangaSep 26, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira – Internacional de BogotaSep 26, 2026
- Cucuta – LlanerosSep 27, 2026
- Jaguares – Alianza ValleduparSep 27, 2026
- Deportivo Cali – Águilas DoradasSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira – Santa FeSep 30, 2026
- Independiente Medellin – MillonariosSep 30, 2026
- Atletico Nacional – JuniorOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Junior vs Independiente Medellin prediction?
Our AI gives Junior a 31% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Independiente Medellin 40%. Independiente Medellin are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
0-1 (13.5%), followed by 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%) and 0-2 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
The probability that both Junior and Independiente Medellin score is 43%. Junior have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Independiente Medellin 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
The model expects 2.15 goals (0.99 for Junior, 1.16 for Independiente Medellin). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Junior vs Independiente Medellin played?
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 02:20 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla.
What form are Junior and Independiente Medellin in?
Junior: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Independiente Medellin: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Junior and Independiente Medellin?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Junior, 1 for Independiente Medellin and 0 draws. The most recent ended Independiente Medellin 2-0 Junior (Mar 20, 2026).
How is the Junior vs Independiente Medellin prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.99 for Junior, 1.16 for Independiente Medellin) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Junior predictions
- All Independiente Medellin predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology