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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 00:10 (UK time)

Chico vs Deportivo Pasto prediction: correct score and AI tips

ChicoChico–Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto

Match analysis

Colombian Primera A: the Chico vs Deportivo Pasto match is scheduled on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 00:10 (UK time). Venue: Estadio La Independencia, Tunja. Chico start as favourites with a 55% chance of victory; Deportivo Pasto are given 21% and the draw 24%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (10.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Chico have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Deportivo Pasto have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Chico score 1.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Deportivo Pasto score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Chico sit 17th with 8 points from 9 games, Deportivo Pasto 15th with 8 points from 10. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Chico, 1 for Deportivo Pasto and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Pasto 2-0 Chico (Mar 18, 2026). In double chance terms, "Chico or draw" stands at 79%, "Deportivo Pasto or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.

In short : Chico are favourites for this Chico v Deportivo Pasto, with a 55% win probability from our model. In the table, Chico (17th, 8 pts) host Deportivo Pasto (15th, 8 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

55%
Chico (Win)
24%
Draw
21%
Deportivo Pasto (Win)

Double chance

79%
Chico or draw
45%
Deportivo Pasto or draw
76%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Chico – Deportivo Pasto. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Chico 1-0 Deportivo Pasto11.7%
Chico 1-1 Deportivo Pasto11.4%
Chico 2-0 Deportivo Pasto10.0%
Chico 2-1 Deportivo Pasto9.7%
Chico 0-0 Deportivo Pasto6.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.71 expected goals for Chico and 0.97 for Deportivo Pasto, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 50% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Chico keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Deportivo Pasto in 18%.

Probability
Chico expected goals1.71
Deportivo Pasto expected goals0.97
Both teams to score51%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Chico clean sheet38%
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet18%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Chico

DateOpponentScore
Sep 19, 2026Millonarios · Colombian Primera A0-3L
Sep 16, 2026Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Sep 13, 2026Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Sep 5, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A2-0W
Aug 30, 2026Águilas Doradas · Colombian Primera A2-2D

Deportivo Pasto

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Sep 15, 2026America de Cali · Colombian Primera A1-0W
Sep 10, 2026Independiente Medellin · Copa Colombia1-4L
Sep 6, 2026Cucuta · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 1, 2026Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A1-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Chico1789
Deportivo Pasto15810

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 18, 2026Deportivo Pasto 2-0 ChicoColombian Primera A

Out and doubtful

Chico

No absences reported.

Deportivo Pasto

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Chico

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • C. Mosquera5/5
  • D. Agudelo5/5
  • E. Sarria5/5
  • J. Alomia5/5
  • J. Diaz5/5
  • J. Mena5/5
  • J. Pimentel5/5
  • S. Mera5/5
  • C. Blanco Betancur4/5
  • S. Salazar4/5
  • A. Maya2/5

Deportivo Pasto

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Rios5/5
  • E. C. Serje Orozco4/5
  • H. Mancilla4/5
  • J. Perlaza4/5
  • M. Pisano4/5
  • N. Gil4/5
  • F. Leys3/5
  • G. Banguera3/5
  • H. Goyes3/5
  • M. Garavito3/5
  • M. S. Jimenez3/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Chico vs Deportivo Pasto prediction?

Our AI gives Chico a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Deportivo Pasto 21%. Chico are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Chico vs Deportivo Pasto?

1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).

Will both teams score in Chico vs Deportivo Pasto?

The probability that both Chico and Deportivo Pasto score is 51%. Chico have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportivo Pasto 18%.

How many goals should we expect in Chico vs Deportivo Pasto?

The model expects 2.68 goals (1.71 for Chico, 0.97 for Deportivo Pasto). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.

When and where is Chico vs Deportivo Pasto played?

Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 00:10 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio La Independencia, Tunja.

What form are Chico and Deportivo Pasto in?

Chico: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 8 conceded). Deportivo Pasto: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Chico and Deportivo Pasto?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Chico, 1 for Deportivo Pasto and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportivo Pasto 2-0 Chico (Mar 18, 2026).

How is the Chico vs Deportivo Pasto prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Chico, 0.97 for Deportivo Pasto) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained