Colombian Primera A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 26, 2026, 02:15 (UK time)
Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Once Caldas 1-3 Bucaramanga. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Once Caldas (49%), while victory for Bucaramanga was rated at only 23%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.
Match analysis
Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga was played on Saturday, September 26, 2026 (Colombian Primera A). Venue: Estadio Palogrande, Manizales. Before kick-off, our model gave Once Caldas a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bucaramanga 23%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (15.3%), ahead of 1-1 (12.7%) and 0-0 (11.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Once Caldas have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Bucaramanga. On average Once Caldas score 0.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Bucaramanga score 1.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Once Caldas sit 10th with 12 points from 10 games, Bucaramanga 6th with 17 points from 9. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Once Caldas, 0 for Bucaramanga and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bucaramanga 1-1 Once Caldas (Mar 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Once Caldas or draw" stands at 77%, "Bucaramanga or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Once Caldas are favourites for this Once Caldas v Bucaramanga, with a 48% win probability from our model. In the table, Once Caldas (10th, 12 pts) host Bucaramanga (6th, 17 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Once Caldas – Bucaramanga. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Once Caldas 1-0 Bucaramanga | 15.3% |
| Once Caldas 1-1 Bucaramanga | 12.7% |
| Once Caldas 0-0 Bucaramanga | 11.5% |
| Once Caldas 2-0 Bucaramanga | 10.2% |
| Once Caldas 0-1 Bucaramanga | 9.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.16 goals in total (1.33 for Once Caldas, 0.83 for Bucaramanga): over 2.5 goals has a 37% probability and both teams to score 42%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Once Caldas keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Bucaramanga in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Once Caldas expected goals | 1.33 |
| Bucaramanga expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Once Caldas clean sheet | 44% |
| Bucaramanga clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Once Caldas
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto · Colombian Primera A | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar · Copa Colombia | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Chico · Colombian Primera A | 0-2 | L |
Bucaramanga
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira · Colombian Primera A | 3-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Deportivo Cali · Colombian Primera A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Deportes Tolima · Colombian Primera A | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| Bucaramanga | 6 | 17 | 9 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Bucaramanga 1-1 Once Caldas | Colombian Primera A |
Out and doubtful
Once Caldas
No absences reported.
Bucaramanga
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Once Caldas
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Colorado5/5
- A. Roa5/5
- D. Londono5/5
- J. D. Cuesta Santos5/5
- J. Parra5/5
- M. Barrios5/5
- A. Correa4/5
- D. Moreno3/5
- J. A. Zapata Ramirez3/5
- J. Castano3/5
- P. Gomez3/5
Bucaramanga
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Fiermarin5/5
- C. Romana5/5
- E. Batalla5/5
- F. Charrupi5/5
- F. Hinestroza5/5
- J. Ortiz5/5
- L. Pons5/5
- F. Sambueza4/5
- N. Castrillon4/5
- J. Garcia3/5
- L. Flores3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Chico 3-0 Deportivo PastoSep 26, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 0-0 Internacional de BogotaSep 26, 2026
- Cucuta 2-1 LlanerosSep 27, 2026
- Junior 2-0 Independiente MedellinSep 27, 2026
- Jaguares 1-2 Alianza ValleduparSep 27, 2026
- Fortaleza FC 2-2 Deportes TolimaSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Cali 2-0 Águilas DoradasSep 28, 2026
- Deportivo Pereira 1-2 Santa FeSep 29, 2026
- Independiente Medellin 2-2 MillonariosSep 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Once Caldas a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bucaramanga 23%. Once Caldas are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga?
1-0 (15.3%), followed by 1-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.2%) and 0-1 (9.6%).
Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga?
The probability that both Once Caldas and Bucaramanga score is 42%. Once Caldas have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bucaramanga 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga?
The model expects 2.16 goals (1.33 for Once Caldas, 0.83 for Bucaramanga). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga played?
Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 02:15 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Palogrande, Manizales.
What form are Once Caldas and Bucaramanga in?
Once Caldas: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded). Bucaramanga: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Once Caldas and Bucaramanga?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Once Caldas, 0 for Bucaramanga and 1 draw. The most recent ended Bucaramanga 1-1 Once Caldas (Mar 19, 2026).
What was the Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Once Caldas 1-3 Bucaramanga. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Once Caldas (49%), while victory for Bucaramanga was rated at only 23%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.5%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): missed.
How is the Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.33 for Once Caldas, 0.83 for Bucaramanga) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Once Caldas predictions
- All Bucaramanga predictions
- Colombian Primera A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology