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Colombian Primera AColombian Primera A· Kick-off : Monday, September 28, 2026, 00:05 (UK time)

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima prediction: correct score and AI tips

Fortaleza FCFortaleza FC–Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima

Match analysis

Colombian Primera A: Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima kicks off on Monday, September 28, 2026 at 00:05 (UK time). Venue: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota. The edge goes to Deportes Tolima (46%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Fortaleza FC win (28%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.5%), ahead of 0-1 (11.7%) and 1-2 (9.0%).

Fortaleza FC have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Deportes Tolima have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Deportes Tolima. On average Fortaleza FC score 1.20 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Deportes Tolima score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Fortaleza FC sit 14th with 8 points from 10 games, Deportes Tolima 7th with 17 points from 10. 7 places separate the two sides.

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fortaleza FC, 1 for Deportes Tolima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportes Tolima 2-0 Fortaleza FC (Mar 19, 2026). In double chance terms, "Fortaleza FC or draw" stands at 54%, "Deportes Tolima or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 74%.

In short : Deportes Tolima are favourites for this Fortaleza FC v Deportes Tolima, with a 46% win probability from our model. In the table, Fortaleza FC (14th, 8 pts) host Deportes Tolima (7th, 17 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

28%
Fortaleza FC (Win)
26%
Draw
46%
Deportes Tolima (Win)

Double chance

54%
Fortaleza FC or draw
72%
Deportes Tolima or draw
74%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Fortaleza FC – Deportes Tolima. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Fortaleza FC 1-1 Deportes Tolima12.5%
Fortaleza FC 0-1 Deportes Tolima11.7%
Fortaleza FC 1-2 Deportes Tolima9.0%
Fortaleza FC 1-0 Deportes Tolima8.7%
Fortaleza FC 0-2 Deportes Tolima8.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 2.51 goals in total (1.07 for Fortaleza FC, 1.44 for Deportes Tolima): over 2.5 goals has a 46% probability and both teams to score 50%. Fortaleza FC keep a clean sheet in 24% of scenarios, Deportes Tolima in 34%.

Probability
Fortaleza FC expected goals1.07
Deportes Tolima expected goals1.44
Both teams to score50%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Fortaleza FC clean sheet24%
Deportes Tolima clean sheet34%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Fortaleza FC

DateOpponentScore
Sep 20, 2026Junior · Colombian Primera A1-4L
Sep 12, 2026Jaguares · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 6, 2026Santa Fe · Colombian Primera A2-2D
Sep 2, 2026Once Caldas · Colombian Primera A1-2L
Aug 26, 2026Chico · Colombian Primera A0-0D

Deportes Tolima

DateOpponentScore
Aug 22, 2026Bucaramanga · Colombian Primera A0-0D
Aug 19, 2026Independiente del Valle · CONMEBOL Libertadores0-1L
Aug 9, 2026Internacional de Bogota · Colombian Primera A2-1W
Aug 5, 2026Independiente Medellin · Colombian Primera A2-3L
Aug 1, 2026Alianza Valledupar · Colombian Primera A2-1W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Fortaleza FC14810
Deportes Tolima71710

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 19, 2026Deportes Tolima 2-0 Fortaleza FCColombian Primera A

Out and doubtful

Fortaleza FC

No absences reported.

Deportes Tolima

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Fortaleza FC

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Copete5/5
  • J. Cajares5/5
  • L. Pico5/5
  • S. Navarro5/5
  • S. Vivas5/5
  • W. Barlasina5/5
  • Y. Diaz5/5
  • J. Blanco3/5
  • J. Solis3/5
  • J. Castillo2/5
  • J. Herrera2/5

Deportes Tolima

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • S. Guzman5/5
  • A. Parra Osorio4/5
  • H. E. Martinez Yepez4/5
  • J. Angulo4/5
  • J. Hernandez4/5
  • J. Hurtado4/5
  • A. Angulo3/5
  • C. Arrieta3/5
  • J. Mosquera3/5
  • K. Florez3/5
  • L. Sanchez3/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima prediction?

Our AI gives Fortaleza FC a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportes Tolima 46%. Deportes Tolima are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima?

1-1 (12.5%), followed by 0-1 (11.7%), 1-2 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%) and 0-2 (8.4%).

Will both teams score in Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima?

The probability that both Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima score is 50%. Fortaleza FC have a 24% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Deportes Tolima 34%.

How many goals should we expect in Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima?

The model expects 2.51 goals (1.07 for Fortaleza FC, 1.44 for Deportes Tolima). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 72%, over 2.5 goals 46%, over 3.5 goals 25%.

When and where is Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima played?

Monday, September 28, 2026 at 00:05 (UK time), Colombian Primera A. Venue: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota.

What form are Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima in?

Fortaleza FC: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 10 conceded). Deportes Tolima: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima?

In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fortaleza FC, 1 for Deportes Tolima and 0 draws. The most recent ended Deportes Tolima 2-0 Fortaleza FC (Mar 19, 2026).

How is the Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.07 for Fortaleza FC, 1.44 for Deportes Tolima) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained